Warns: Lukashenko starred in a play to justify his next steps

Feelings of fear and hope are felt

Maxim Milta of the European University of Humanities Delphi Day says that currently the atmosphere in Belarus is very different from 2015 or 2010.

“I can say unequivocally that the current atmosphere is markedly different from the atmosphere of the 2015 elections and the atmosphere of 2010. There is not a single feeling that can describe me: it is a state of mind of hope and anticipation, and uncertainty, a certain mood of fear.

They emerged in particular when, yesterday, the Belarusian Interior Minister suddenly placed his speech to statutory officials and made it very clear to all onlookers that there would be a real use of force in case of protests, which is why Alexander Lukashenko’s annual report Tuesday also contributed to that. Such unequivocal moods, but unequivocally mobilizing moods also linger in the air and here in Minsk, where I am now, near the Independence Square, you see many more men in uniform than usual.

One of the biggest rallies is planned for Thursday so we are clearly looking forward to seeing what happens next, ”he said of the mood in Minsk. Delphi Day Mr. Milta has spoken.

One of the most interesting episodes of the past week was the arrest of the Wagner military structure from Russia near Minsk.

Several members of the Russian private military group Vagner, who were arrested in Belarus last week, told investigators that they had traveled to Minsk via Minsk, where they intended to visit St. Sophia Cathedral or sunbathe.

You can read more about this in the following text: Russian mercenaries detained in Belarus: we went to Turkey to sunbathe

Lukashenko said on Tuesday that Russian citizens detained in the country had not been in transit through the country, but had been specially deported. “Everything is a lie: about Istanbul, Venezuela, Africa and Libya. These people, they testified, were sent especially to Belarus. They were ordered to wait, “Lukashenko said, addressing the Belarusian people and parliament. According to him, another platoon of foreigners has been transferred to Belarus, which should destabilize the situation in the country.

It was announced that 32 people had been detained at the sanatorium near Minsk, another in southern Belarus. In total, more than 200 of those agents may have been dispatched to the country, according to Belarusian law enforcement agencies. The recent events are the latest unexpected turn in Belarus’ presidential election campaign, during which 65-year-old Lukashenko, who has been in power for nearly three decades, has already sent his main rivals behind bars before the vote of the August 9.

Observer: Lukashenko wants to justify the use of force

Marius Laurinavičius, an analyst at the Vilnius Institute for Political Analysis, says several important issues need to be addressed.

“It just came to our knowledge then. First of all, we don’t know if this is a Wagner group. That’s what Lukashenko says, but what Lukashenko says is certainly not always true. We know that these are Russian mercenaries, because we also know from Ukrainian sources, that is, since the names were announced, it is clear that these people were at war in Donbass. True, not everyone seems to be 13 years old, if I remember well those who have been confirmed, we can conclude that he really is a mercenary, and not just a staged performance, not a staging, “said the critic.

“Everything that Lukashenko talks about, on the one hand, and Russia, on the other, must be treated with great care. Because both sides, as we well know, lie through the eyes, if so directly. Some conclusions can be drawn from this. It’s clear to me from the outset that this is Lukashenko’s disinformation operation, organized to show that Russia is supposedly interfering here and wants a coup, while in principle justifying the use of force for which we are probably all quite a lot. we have been hearing warnings from Lukashenko for a long time, ”says M. Laurinavičius.

You can use force

According to him, Lukashenko has repeatedly made it clear that if he is threatened, force can be used.

“We remember, it seems, that June 3 was when Lukashenko himself first told the whole story of all the coups in the former Soviet republics and all other bloodshed, stating very clearly that if someone, God forbid, here in Belarus, and he would be threatened, he would use as much force as necessary, and that narrative continued until Wagner’s arrests, even to the fact that Lukashenko made it clear in a speech, although I will not quote that quote exactly. now, but it was said in essence, that all modern color those so-called revolutions begin with those private military companies.

And suddenly the president himself said that those revolutions started with those private military companies, and suddenly the president said that there was a private military company, that is one thing, another thing, it is quite clear that they do not even hide that they are mercenaries. Well, generally, if someone is going to do some operations, they don’t openly march there, “said the critic on the show.

Disinformation operation

According to the reviewer, what is happening in Belarus now is, in a sense, a disinformation operation.

“It is necessary to analyze what is happening in Belarus itself after the arrest. Once again, I saw President Lukashenko’s speech immediately after that and the annual report on that Tuesday. Basically, it is quite clear that Lukashenko was not afraid. Lukashenko he is quite known as a paranoid thinking man, it is completely natural. If he had felt at least the slightest threat, we certainly would not have seen him in Belarus, even when Maxim says that more people would wear uniforms there. We would see some normal emergency introduced. he, as a dictator, felt threatened, we know what Lukashenko has done before. That is what he would really try to be careful of. Now, in fact, what is happening again is the same disinformation operation to prepare for that possible use of new strength ”, said M. Laurinavičius on the program.

Milta emphasized that Lukashenko’s current election campaign was much more complex.

I think that Mr. Lukashenko, in his 26 years in power, is in fact quite an experienced leader in this regard, a dictator of the country, and in fact the current election campaign is a bit more complicated than usual for him , but it is not a phenomenon for him. existential threat, ”says Milta.

See the full conversation in the program report.