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According to the review, regions where the British virus strain predominates lead both in terms of the number of cases and hospitalizations in the country. Since last Monday, diseases in Vilnius County accounted for 54 percent. the number of all cases in Lithuania and the number of cases detected since February has doubled.
The number of beds occupied by COVID-19 patients is also growing strongly in the Vilnius region: on Monday, the occupancy of resuscitation beds in Vilnius had reached 90% and more treatment and resuscitation beds had to be added.
In western Lithuania, the situation is the opposite: in the Šiauliai region last week there were no resuscitation patients for 3 days. These regional differences are likely due to movement restrictions between municipalities.
What are the predictions?
The acceleration of the pandemic in Lithuania has been positive for 11 days, with the increase in cases on Monday and Tuesday reaching 25-38 percent. If this acceleration continued in the second half of April, we would reach 2,000 cases a day. Based on last week’s S gene dropout and N501Y mutation studies (positive cases Monday and Tuesday)
In Lithuania, the B.1.1.7 variety is probably already widespread in almost all of Lithuania, but its dominance is visible only in Vilnius, Utena and Marijampolė counties. In other regions, the variety will prevail in 2-3 weeks, so if the epidemiological situation is not under control, the dynamics in them should be similar to what we see in Vilnius.
The number of beds occupied by COVID-19 patients is also growing strongly in the Vilnius region: the day before yesterday, the occupancy of resuscitation beds in Vilnius had reached 90%. and had to add more treatment and resuscitation beds. In western Lithuania, the situation is the opposite: in the Šiauliai region last week there were no resuscitation patients for 3 days. Such regional differences are likely due to movement restrictions between municipalities.
The percentage of positive tests increased slightly, but the indicators of greatest concern also increased (the number of symptomatic tests, the proportion of positive tests among them and the proportion of municipalities and / or positive tests), situations such that in most of the Lithuanian municipalities I have not seen since December.
Prevalence of the “British” variety
The situation in eastern Lithuania is deteriorating very rapidly: in Vilnius city and district, the 7-day average of new cases has doubled per month and the rate continues to grow. The number of patients treated in both hospitalization and resuscitation is growing in hospitals in the Vilnius region, and additional beds are being added.
Compared to the Šiauliai region, where most municipalities have reached the yellow zone, the situation in hospitals is improving.
To operationally assess the prevalence of the B.1.1.7 strain in Lithuania, most of the positive cases on Monday and Tuesday of last week were analyzed for precipitation of the S gene and the N501Y mutation. Both indicators, which are specific to the B.1.1.7 strain, are adequate to estimate its prevalence. Based on the research results obtained, it is highly probable that in Vilnius, Utena and Marijampolė counties this variety represents 70%. (and more) new cases, but in another part of Lithuania their prevalence is at least 25%.
