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TBS Radio interview with survey experts
Yoon Hee-woong “The problem of losing the strength of the people in the option”
President Yoon, opposition poll 22.6% → total poll 24.7%
Attorney General Yoon Seok-yeol, who resumed visiting the national prosecutor’s office after eight months, leaves the building after meeting with local prosecutors at the Daejeon District Attorney’s Office on 29 last month. Daejeon = Yonhap News
Public opinion poll experts have come up with various interpretations of Hangil Research’s public opinion poll results that Attorney General Yoon Seok-yeol recently recorded 24.7% of presidential elections. In particular, some experts commented that while President Yoon’s rise was clear, the design of the public opinion poll itself worked in his favor.
Yoon Hee-woong, head of the Opinion Live Public Opinion Analysis Center, at TBS Radio’s ‘Kim Eo-joon News Factory’ on the 12th, said, “Because there are no clear corridors in the opposition, it is possible to register high approval ratings because there is no clear runner in opposition. ” The increase appears quite quickly, so it is necessary to look closely at the results of the investigation, “he said.
Director Yoon posed a question about the options suggested in the question. Previously, on the 7th and 9th, Hangil Research surveyed 1,022 voters aged 18 and over across the country for their support of upcoming presidential election candidates. Hangil Research asked about the preferences for the pan-passport candidate and the pan-opposition candidate, respectively, and then selected six of the total opposition candidates and asked for their preference again.
The investigation of only candidates with passports included Democratic Party legislator Kim Doo-gwan, former Democratic Party legislator Kim Bu-gyeom, Justice Party legislator Shim Sang-jeong, Democratic Party leader Lee Nak -yeon, Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myung and Prime Minister Jeong Se-gyun. Among the pan-opposition candidates, Ahn Cheol-soo, former mayor of Seoul City, Seung-min Yoo, former member of the Future Unified Party (now the power of the people), Attorney General Yoon Seok-yeol, the Governor of Jeju Won Hee-ryong, the independent legislator Hong Jun-pyo and the former United Party representative Hwang Gyo-an, etc. Included.
When asked who supported the opposition candidates, a total of nine options were presented: Representative Yang-Jung Shim, Representative Ahn Chul-Soo, President Yoon Suk-Yeol, Representative Lee Nak-Yeon, the Governor Lee Jae-myung, Representative Hong Jun-pyo and others, None, I don’t know and No answer.
Unlike the pan-opposition poll, in a comprehensive poll of opposition candidates, politicians under the power of the people such as Yoo Seung-min, Oh Se-hoon and Won Hee-ryong, who accounted for 9.0%, were omitted. , 4.5% and 2.8%, respectively, in the survey of pan-opposition candidates. Yoon’s approval rating was 24.7% in this poll.
In this regard, the director of the center, Yoon, said: “The problem is the option of not having politicians under the power of the people, including the former mayor of Seoul, Oh Se-hoon,” and said: “It is very important to see if is in sight or not. Because of this, the effect of meeting as president Yoon Seok-yeol would have been much greater. Will, “he insisted.
Lee Eun-young, Director of Human & Data, who appeared together, said: “In the article asking for the passport candidate and the opposition candidate separately, President Yoon Suk-yeol ranked first with 22, 6% (opposition candidate) “. This 33.5% came out, and when asked by both parties, (the respondents who don’t know) were all (President Yoon). “
However, Hangil Research explained on its website late this day that the criteria for the selection of candidates for all opposition parties, “in the previous survey, a total of 6 people, up to third place in passport and opposition, respectively “, and” Some candidates may change in the monthly survey. ” did. In fact, in the poll conducted last month by Hangil Research, candidates who ranked first to third in each of the ruling and opposition parties were suggested as options for this poll.
The proportion of landlines and the proportion of the surveyed generation
President Seok-Yeol Yoon recorded 24.7% approval rating in a poll conducted by Hangil Research from 7 to 9 on the right for the next presidential candidate. Hangil Research
There was also a question about how to investigate. “Some of them were carried out in an automated answering system (ARS) method, which tends to have a very conservative response,” Yun said. “The proportion of residential phones, that is, landlines, is also an important aspect compared to other recent surveys.” Mentioned.
Hangil Research conducted a survey with 23% of the landline phone interviews and 77% of the wireless ARS. The landline phone interview is a method of conducting a survey by calling a home (or store) phone by a public opinion polling agency, and it is explained that if the rate of surveys through the home phone increases, it increases relatively the number of respondents with a tendency to pay.
In particular, the proportion of landlines was found to be higher than in other surveys. In the actual meter survey released the day before, the landline survey rate (automatic response) was 20%. In the Gallup Korea poll last week, the home phone survey rate was 15%.
Director Yoon said, “I don’t leave my home phone when I move, but most of the time I use a mobile phone or an Internet phone.” “Using a home phone is that I’ve lived at the address for a long time and maybe older people use it more than younger people.” He added: “Mainly when people make a phone call to a house or store during polling time, the people receiving the calls are full-time housewives, self-employed and unemployed, but they have a relatively strong tendency to pay.” .
Also, of the 1,022 respondents in this survey, 311 people aged 60 and over, who have relatively strong conservative tendencies compared to other age groups, and 213 people aged 50 years. Even if weights are applied so that only the views of a specific generation are not reflected, it is noteworthy that 5060 households (524 people) account for more than half of the total respondents.
However, some objections are raised that there is not a big problem with the research method itself. Lee Sang-il, director of Keystat Consulting, said in a call with Hankook Ilbo: “On the contrary, it is not easy to get answers from the elderly if only the wireless phone method is used, so it is pointed out that it can be changed towards progressivity “. There are many opinions that it is necessary to use it for research, ”he said.
Furthermore, he said, “if there is a problem with weighting or sampling, the Central Electoral Management Committee prevents public announcement in advance, so I do not think it is a level that goes against the current method.”
Regardless of the investigation method, it is interpreted that there was no opponent of the opposition party, so President Yoon’s concentration phenomenon was inevitable. Park Si-young, executive director of Winji Korea, explained in the same radio broadcast that “the issue of prosecution continues to emerge as a central issue for the government, and there is no choice but to be displaced because there is no influential player on the side. conservative as an alternative. “
Previously, President Yoon recorded an approval rating of 24.7% in a Hangil Research poll. 22.2% of the representative of the Democratic Party, Lee Nak-yeon, and the governor of Gyeonggi, Lee Jae-myeong, were 18.4%. He was followed by Hong Joon-pyo, an independent legislator, 5.6%, Ahn Cheol-soo, the representative of the National Assembly, 4.2%, and Shim Sang-jeong, the representative of the Justice Party, on 3, 4%.
The sample error in this survey, which was commissioned by Cookie News, is ± 3.1% at a 95% confidence level. The response rate is 3.8%. For more information, see the website of the Central Election Poll Review Committee.
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