You can go back down … “KOSPI 1,800 lines could collapse”

Valuation burden due to an 11% increase in April … Concerns about reduced exports and hit performance

“The stock price trend is weaker than before … the possibility of trying to recover 2,000 lines after the middle of the month”

(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Kwak Min-seo = The price of a stock that plummeted as a result of the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) rebounded once, and the stock markets predict that the stock market of this month could go down again.

It’s a situation where the stock market that says, “Sell in May (sell in May)” will fit.

According to the 5 financial investment industry, the average KOSPI expected rise and fall in May for 8 securities firms that released the stock market forecast report for the previous month averaged at 1,755.

By company, Shinhan Financial Investment and Daishin Securities showed the lowest level of vision by suggesting the bottom of the 1,700 range.

Bukuk Securities and Samsung Securities presented 1,750, KB Securities and IBK Investment Securities, and Korea Investment Securities 1,780 respectively.

All the other 7 securities firms, except Kiwoom Securities, which had only the bottom of the 1,800 range, predicted that KOSPI could fall in the mid-1700s again.

Previously, KOSPI rose 10.99% in the last month of April to recover 1,940.

The closing price (1,947.56) at the end of last month rose 489.92 points (33.61%) compared to the historical low of March 19 (1,457.64).

However, on the 4th, the first day of trading in May, KOSPI fell 2.68% in one day and fell back to 1,895.37.

Going forward, if the bottom of the stock price range is set to 1,700, it means KOSPI could drop further by 10% during the month.

KB Securities suggested that KOSPI could fall in the short term this month, and that the investment share in May is “neutral”.

Lee Eun-taek, a researcher at KB Securities, said: “Currently, the stock market needs to alleviate the fatigue caused by rising stock prices.” As the bullish momentum in equities slows, the possibility of a short-term adjustment of approximately -10% should be considered. ”

Park So-yeon, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, was also concerned that “even though the estimate of corporate earnings was lowered, the index continued to rise and the valuation burden (appraisal value) increased.”

It is also analyzed that the release of the ‘Corona 19′ blockade, which initially attracted investors’ expectations, could act as uncertainty in the market.

Researcher Eun-taek Lee diagnosed that, since the middle of this month, the deregulation of each country is in full swing.

Furthermore, due to the nature of Korea’s large export share, slow corporate earnings due to deteriorating exports in Q2 are also a factor in increasing pressure on falling stock prices.

Naturally, stocks appear to weigh on the likelihood of the index continuing to weaken this month.

IBK Investment & Securities researcher Kim Ye-eun said: “This month, we expect to increase market volatility as cash flow intertwines as external risks such as the proliferation of Corona 19 and the restart of trade disputes between the United States and China. Said ”

Securities researcher Lee Won-guk also predicted that “the stimulus of the stock market supported by political expectations is at its limit.” As the gap between the stock market and the real economy intensifies, KOSPI will go through a period of gap adjustment this month. ”

However, the stock price is also forecast to recover gradually in the second half of this month.

Daishin Securities predicted that KOSPI will attempt to regain the 2,000 line this month, showing the ‘post-war’ trend.

Researcher Lee Kyung-min emphasized, “If Corona 19 calms down and economic activity resumes, expectations of an economic recovery and a boost in liquidity will lead to an increase in share prices.” In the global liquidity expansion phase, net purchases of KOSPI by foreign investors will be a matter of time. “I did.

Seo Sang-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said: “In early January, the stock price adjustment is an opportunity to alleviate high valuation concerns.” KOSPI will be able to challenge the 2,000 line in the second half of the month with the resumption of economic activities in the future.

◇ Scope of the estimated change for KOSPI in May by the securities companies

(Data = Report of each securities company)

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