[ad_1]
Two days passed without thinking. On 29 (local time), the first quarter results of the United States and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve System (Fed) announced the number of claims for unemployment and consumption benefits in March the 30th. . Meanwhile, the stock market cheered when Gilead’s “Remdesivir” was known to be effective in treating new coronavirus infections (corona19). In particular, President Donald Trump even bombarded that the US-Chinese economy could resume a full-scale war on Corona19.
The interest is how the American economy will flow in the future. It is difficult to get the exact numbers, but there are a few things to keep in mind in the future. Here are four key factors that will shape the American economy in the future.
|
Habla Trump Talks About Public Service Retaliation Against Crown Damage … Economic Potential
For President Donald Trump ahead of the November presidential election, how responding to the Corona 19 phase will have a direct impact on election results.
The White House was aimed at lashing China. President Trump said on the 30th (local time): “I saw evidence of the Wuhan virus outbreak.” Said
While it is important that President Trump maintain the first stage trade deal, reelection is a priority in this situation. There is also an atmosphere within the Republican Party that “we must give up making economic gains in China.”
Previously, the US government. USA It changed regulations to export products to China destined for semiconductors and aviation components that could be converted for military purposes, even if they were for civilian use. The Washington Post (WP) said today that senior US officials have begun looking for ways to punish China or demand financial compensation by blaming it for the Crown 19 spread. The White House denied it, but is also considering ways to deprive the government of “sovereign immunity” to sue the Chinese government.
The US group of political experts. The US, Eurasia Group, saw that as the US USA And China went into the new Cold War after Crown 19, various economic sanctions, export restrictions and retaliatory tariffs could be rampant. The conflict over Hong Kong and Taiwan will be even greater. China will not stand still. In this case, there will be no trade agreement between the United States and China, and the two countries will face a full-scale war again. This can be fatal for a difficult global economy.
|
② The largest reduction in consumption in 61 years is also called “the tip of the iceberg” … -29.8% p in Q2
On that day, the US Department of Commerce. USA Announced consumer spending in March. -7.5% plummeted. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), this is the largest decline in 61 years since 1959, when it was recorded. In the United States, consumption represents two thirds of the economy. The United States agreed to the trade war between the United States and China because its consumption was slow. Conversely, if consumption collapses, the economy will collapse.
The problem is that the March figures are just the tip of the iceberg. This is because the effect of the closure of Corona 19 begins in April. “I think this is the tip of the iceberg,” said Blina Urich Barclays, chief US economist.
In fact, the contribution rate of consumer spending was the highest with -4.8% in the first quarter and -5.3% point (p). Corporate investment (-1.2% p) and inventory change (-0.5% p) were the main factors of decrease, while trade (1.3% p) and investment in housing (0.7% p) were the main factors. . Government spending was only 0.1% p.
Currently, the United States is closed to all supermarkets and delivery restaurants, except large ones. Even if you try to consume it, you cannot buy it in the collapse of the supply chain. With this in mind, April will be the worst and the consequences will continue after May. That is why the forecast for the reduction of GDP in the second and fourth quarters reached -40 to -50%. Investment Bank (IB) Morgan Stanley noted that the contribution of GDP to consumer spending in the second quarter will be -29.8% p. Of course, the worst GDP, employment, consumption indicators, etc. of the second and fourth quarter are already known, and this is reflected in the market.
|
③ “Lemdesibir, it’s significant, but not a home run” … Vaccines and treatments save the economy.
Another key element is Gilead’s Corona 19 remedy remedy. He is also the main character who led the rise in the US stock market. USA The previous day.
Anthony Pouch, director of the National Institute of Allergic Diseases (NIAID), said it had a “clear effect” on Remdesivir. Patients who take remedyvir generally recover after 11 days, which is 4 days faster than those who did not take the medicine. Gilead also plans to produce 140,000 doses of Lemdecivir over 10 days by the end of May and increase it to 1 million by the end of the year.
However, the head of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Scott Gotlip said: “It may have a significant effect, but it’s not a home run.” That means you can’t do it all with Remdesibir.
In any case, it is true that Remdesivir did a stroke. The important thing is that Corona19 treatments and vaccines are key to saving people’s lives and the economy. You must have a cure and a vaccine to be able to go to work safely and go to places where people gather. The mall, travel and accommodation industry will also revive. From the moment mass production of therapies and vaccines is possible, the economy will quickly normalize. If some US stocks resume their economic activity and General Motors (GM) and Ford, etc., return their factories from May 18, if Corona 19 becomes popular again, there is a high possibility of a double dip (double recession) later of the second shock. . Therefore, treatments and vaccines are essential to predict the future economy.
The exchange’s director also said it is expected to produce hundreds of millions of vaccines by January of next year. Multinational pharmaceutical companies in major countries such as the United States, China, and the European Union (EU) are focusing on the development of the Corona 19 vaccine.
|
④The last line of defense … Is Powell’s next card a stock purchase? Less interest rates?
Apart from everything, there is the Fed in the United States. It is the Fed that supports the stock market with liquidity and has applied for unprecedented loans and speculative grade corporate bond purchases. The Fed, which showed a strong will to fight, said: “I can do everything I can,” said it would support larger companies while facilitating the eligibility requirements for the main street loan program for SMEs.
The purchase of assets is also expected to expand further. The market expects the Fed to increase its asset purchases by more than $ 3.35 trillion. Interest rates are expected to remain until 2023. This is because President Powell also said he would keep interest rates full until he reached full employment again and reached the inflation target (2%). This also means creating a space for the Fed to increase government debt (expenses) at lower interest rates. “It is not time to worry about federal debt,” Powell said, requesting the fiscal expansion.
But the market wants more. The official wife of the Federal Reserve also has the potential to take further action. The purchase of shares is the first. St. Louis Yan recently said: “There is no possibility of buying shares,” but Wall Street believes that it is not impossible if the economy does not recover from the third quarter.
There is also a negative interest rate. “I don’t think about negative interest rates,” Powell said, but Professor Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University said: “I don’t know how the Federal Reserve will turn out.” I think. If the “war” against Corona 19 does not go as expected, you can take any action. Also, considering that this year is the presidential election.
/ New York = Correspondent Kim Young-pil [email protected]
<저작권자 ⓒ 서울경제, 무단 전재 및 재배포 금지> XC
