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Maximum energy demand 12.6% ↓ ‧ High demand management objective
3.9GW nuclear power plant reduction … Renewable energies increase by 57.7GW
The Ministry of Industry and Industry began to establish the plan in March last year and produced a draft plan through 60 meetings focused on 90 experts in each field. Subsequently, a final announcement was made through a strategic environmental impact assessment, consultation with related ministries, a report from the National Assembly and the Industry Committee, a public hearing, and a deliberation on energy policy.
In the ninth plan, changes in the policy environment from the eighth plan were considered, such as the third basic energy plan, the greenhouse gas reduction review roadmap, and the comprehensive plan of the New Deal of Korea. Consequently, it included implementing policies for energy conversion to a clean and safe energy mix, preparing measures to implement the conversion sector to further reduce greenhouse gases, and accelerating investment in new energy. and renewable for the transition to a low carbon economy and society.
▶ Maximum power demand in 2034 ‘102.5GW’
According to the Ministry of Industry, the demand forecast minimized the forecast error by complementing the demand forecasting methodology, such as the change of industrial structure and the consideration of temperature fluctuation.
The standard maximum power demand in 2034 analyzed by the Working Group was 117.5 GW and, as a result of a comprehensive consideration of the demand management objective and the distribution of electric vehicles, the target demand was derived at 102, 5 GW. The average annual growth rate (1.0%) of the maximum power of the ninth plan is expected to decrease slightly (-0.3% p) compared to the eighth phase in line with the decrease in the average annual economic growth rate.
In the initial planning process, the impact of energy consumption of the 4th Industrial Revolution was analyzed and reviewed, but as a result of the Working Group discussion, it was concluded that it was difficult to quantify and reflect the amount of energy consumption as power maximum due to the uncertainty in the prediction of the energy use pattern. Description.
However, peak power demand due to EV proliferation is projected to increase by about 1 GW in 2034, taking into account the EV supply target and charging pattern.
An official from the Ministry of Industry said: “The impact of the increase or decrease in energy demand of the Fourth Industrial Revolution is expected to be more important in the future.”
In the ninth plan, energy consumption compared to standard demand is 14.9% (96.3 TWh) by strengthening the capacity to implement existing demand management measures and ensuring new measures based on innovative technologies. He proposed an improved demand management target compared to the eighth plan, such as reducing peak power demand by 12.6% (14.8 GW). In the eighth plan, the energy consumption compared to the standard demand was 14.5% and the maximum power was 12.3%.
In addition, the maximum power was reduced to 6.7 GW by improving the efficiency management system standards and increasing the supply of high-efficiency devices and energy management systems (EMS), and 7.08 GW by improving the resource demand market (ER) and positive charge management for ESS supply. I plan to do it. New measures such as V2G (Vehicle to Grid) technology and the proliferation of smart lighting, and demand-driven rate plans will also be actively promoted.
▶ Power generation facilities, nuclear power plants, coal ↓ -Renewables ‧ LNG ↑
Starting in 2034, the facility’s target capacity was calculated at 125.1 GW, reflecting the facility’s base reserve rate of 22% for target demand of 102.5 GW. To meet this, in addition to the existing 122.2GW facilities plan, additional 2.8GW facilities are expected to be expanded again. Consequently, it is planned to expand 2.8GW of new facilities to LNG (1.0GW) and pumped power generation (1.8GW), which are backup facilities to respond to the volatility of renewables. However, the new volume of LNG will be finalized after taking into account the capacity of the self-generation and collective energy facilities.
In the ninth plan, 30 of the 60 coal units (15.3 GW) will be phased out and 7 new units (7.3 GW) completed. Therefore, it will decrease by 6.8 GW from 35.8 GW in 2020 to 29.0 GW in 2034. Nuclear power plants are also scheduled to be completed with 4 units (5.6 GW) during the planned period, but 11 units (9.5 GW) will remain at 19.4 GW in 2034, 3.9 GW less than today, as life extension is prohibited.
On the other hand, LNG has increased by 17.8 GW to 59 GW in 2034, as 24 of the 30 coal power plants that are suspended are looking for fuel conversion. In the case of new and renewable energies, it is expected to reach 77.8 GW, an increase of 57.7 GW in 2034 from 20.1 GW in 2020 to meet the objectives of the 3rd Basic Energy Plan and the Green New Deal.
If the power generation facilities currently underway are completed as planned, the facility reserve ratio is expected to remain above 18% by 2028. Through this, the facility reserve ratio is expected to be achieved. 22% basis through completion of new facilities beginning in 2029.
Regarding the composition of facilities by energy source, nuclear power plants and coal are expected to decrease to 10.1% and 15.0%, respectively, by 2034. Renewable energy is expected to increase to 40.3% % and LNG decreased slightly to 30.6%.
▼ Proportion of power generation by power source (including light and peak load periods per year)
|
|
the nuclear energy |
Coal |
LNG |
Renewable |
Etc. |
system |
|
’19year (Performance) |
25.9% |
40.4% |
25.6% |
6.5% |
1.6% |
100% |
|
’30year (See) |
25.0% |
29.9% |
23.3% |
20.8% |
1.0% |
100% |
▶ Environmental improvement and activation of distributed energy
According to the ‘National Greenhouse Gas Reduction Target 2030’, it is planning to reach 173 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions targets in the conversion sector starting in 2030. This is a decrease in 23.6% from 252 million tonnes in 2017, and the annual share of coal-based power generation is expected to decrease dramatically from 40.4% in 2019 to 29.9% in 2030. It is also expected that the emission of fine dust in the power generation sector decreases by approximately 57%, from 210,000 tons in 2019 to 0.9 million tons in 2030.
The proportion of distributed power generation is expected to increase from approximately 12% this year to approximately 21% in 2034. In particular, in order to revitalize the decentralized energy supply, the implementation of a system to diversify the supply was reviewed. new demand from the metropolitan area towards areas where new demand for renewable energy is concentrated, together with the provision of profit support measures to avoid the construction of transmission lines, etc. Induce investment in the electricity grid.
It also prepares customized measures for each area of concentration of renewable energy, such as the preventive reinforcement of transmission lines to improve the capacity of the system in areas of concentration of renewable energy.
In order to avoid waiting for additional connection due to expansion of small-scale renewable energy, the ‘Renewable Energy Transmission and Substation Installation Plan’ will be established by researching and forecasting renewable energy below 40MW at regional level. Along with this, the company plans to complete the timely completion of the power plant’s transmission lines, substations and connecting lines for a stable electricity supply and complementary measures for delayed projects. This includes facilitating energy control in Jeju and minimizing energy restrictions using ESS.
To improve environmental and social acceptance, the company plans to demonstrate and introduce nature-friendly ground-mounted transmission lines and, in the case of large-scale projects, preliminary consultations on the location of transmission facilities and substations are planned.
▼ Distributed Power Supply Perspective
|
division |
‘twentyyear |
’25year |
’30year |
‘3. 4year |
||
|
Decentralized Energy generation (TWh) |
Renewable, etc.(For business) |
24.0 |
46.0 |
58.3 |
70.8 (11.2%) |
|
|
own car |
Renewable |
2.4 |
4.0 |
4.7 |
6.9 (1.1%) |
|
|
Commercial(Commonly used)me |
8.0 |
9.7 |
9.7 |
9.7 (1.5%) |
||
|
Collective energy (Zone electricity included) |
34.4 |
44.7 |
44.7 |
44.7 (7.1%) |
||
|
Sum |
68.9 |
104.4 |
117.5 |
132.2 |
||
|
Distributed specific gravity |
11.9% |
17.3% |
19.0% |
20.9% |
||
▶ Expansion of renewable energies and improvement of the energy market system
2020 ~ 2034 The supply of new renewable energy facilities (business + private) reaches 62.3GW. In this way, it is expected to reach 22.2% of renewable energy generation in 2034. The Ministry of Industry and Industry has significantly increased the intermediate target for solar and wind energy in 2025 from 29.9 GW to 42.7 GW (cumulative) through the Green New Deal within the 3020 implementation plan target range (2030 cumulative 60 GW, excluding waste).
To achieve the goal, large-scale projects such as offshore wind will be promoted in a timely manner, and the core facilities will be developed and demonstrated in parallel with the start of the project. Additionally, it plans to secure a sustainable market base, such as increasing the RPS index, expanding REC’s competitive bids, and supporting the RE100.
In the energy market, system improvements are being made to promote fair competition and lay the foundation for expanding green energy. The Ministry of Industry plans to improve the system to create a fair competitive environment among power generation companies and to steadily expand green power.
A market to respond to new and renewable volatility, including the introduction of environmental clearance that reflects the cost of emission permits in cost, and the introduction of a staged price bidding system, promoting cost reduction competition between power generation companies and introducing the ‘renewable energy generation tender system’ and the ‘subsidiary services market’ I plan to establish a system.
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