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Meteorological Administration “Landing on the coast of Gyeongnam, leaving the East Sea”
US JTWC predicts Korean penetration
Japan is also a bit more western than Korea.
Official of the Meteorological Agency “It is due to the dry air of the west”
It depends on the collision scenario with dry air and typhoon
Anyway, the area of influence is wide, so the difference is not great … Important contrast
While the ninth typhoon ‘Maysak’ heads north on the south coast of Seogwipo, Jeju Island, the forecast for the typhoon route in Korea, the United States and Japan is mixed up until the second, a day before landing. on the Korean peninsula. This is because volatility is large depending on the collision scenario between the barometer located over the Korean peninsula and the typhoon.
According to the Meteorological Administration, Typhoon Mysak is moving rapidly northward, passing 310 km south of Seogwipo, Jeju Island, at 10 a.m. on the day. The Meteorological Administration predicted that Maisak would land on the Gyeongnam coast around the morning of the 3rd, then travel north after leaving the east coast through the eastern region before landing in North Korea. A typhoon landed between Geojedo and Busan, crossed the eastern region and exited the East Sea.
However, the forecasts for Japan and the United States are somewhat different from those for Korea.
In the case of the Japan Meteorological Agency, the landing site on the Korean peninsula is a little further west than Korea. This is a scenario in which a typhoon lands between the coast of Jeolla and the coast of Gyeongnam, and then stays in the interior of the Korean peninsula a little longer than expected by Korea, then escapes north to the Sea of the it is a little before 9 am on the 3rd and is heading north.
In the case of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in the United States, the trajectory of typhoons was analyzed further west than in Japan. It is a route that penetrates the interior of the Korean peninsula after a typhoon lands in Yeosu or Tongyeong, which is located between the Gyeongnam coast and the Jeolla coast. As the United States predicted, the center of the typhoon almost passed through the center of Korea.
The reason for the difference in the typhoon prediction route between the United States, Japan and Korea is that Mysak is currently traveling north between the high pressure in the east and the pressure of cool dry air in the west, which is affected for the intensity and the route. In particular, the northwest wind blowing from the west with dry air is closely related to the trajectory of the typhoon. A Meteorological Agency official said: “When a typhoon heads north, the dry air in the west acts as a wall and can push the typhoon’s path, and the dry air can be sucked into the bottom of the typhoon to create a ‘low pressure vortex’ “. At that point, the typhoons will drift to the east, but when a low-pressure vortex forms, the dry air can engulf the typhoon and move west. ”
If there is a low pressure vortex, the typhoon currently moving northeast is very likely to change its direction to the north. The reason for the difference in typhoon track prediction by country is that the period in which the cyclonic vortex phenomenon has the effect of the typhoon track is seriously analyzed differently.
JTWC predicts that the low pressure vortex phenomenon greatly affects the trajectory of the typhoon before landing on the Korean Peninsula, changing its direction to the north and penetrating into the interior of the Korean Peninsula. Japan analyzed that it was affected by the vortex later than the United States, but analyzed that it received it before Korea, and predicted that the Maissac route would remain inside the Korean peninsula longer than the Korean Meteorological Agency.
The Meteorological Agency established the period in which the low pressure vortex affects the trajectory of the typhoon later than in the United States or Japan, taking into account the strength of Maisack. As a result, the time to travel northeast was extended and the landing on the east coast of Gyeongnam and the route to the east sea was analyzed.
A Meteorological Administration official said: “The speed of the cyclone’s vortex is somewhat slow, so it is expected to affect the trajectory of the typhoon a little later.” “As such a phenomenon occurred when Mysak landed on the coast of Busan or Gyeongnam, Korea, it seems it will go north.”
Although there are slight differences in the prediction of the typhoon’s path by country, the degree is not so great that there are no significant differences in the impact of Korea in any scenario. A Meteorological Administration official said, “Typhoon enters Tongyeong, but enters Busan through Geoje Island, but the grain of change is about 50 ~ 100 km.”
He added, “As the typhoon’s eyes widen in the future, it will change to a size that covers all cities, counties and districts in Korea.” He added: “The swirling cloud belt around the typhoon is expected to cover the entire Korean peninsula.” Because the typhoon’s impact zone is wide, preparing for the impact is more important than the route.
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