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CNN Election Map Analysis © News1With less than a week left before the US presidential election, US President Donald Trump is trying to return the game to its origin by increasing momentum in the main race, but the analysis of that there is not enough time to change the trend.
Some say that there is a gap in the opinion poll, which is the basis for the analysis, and that the electoral game is already changing as in the 2016 presidential elections, but such observations are not receiving support.
◇ “It is not enough to ‘clean’ Kyunghapju” = CNN diagnosed on the 28th (local time) that it is difficult to secure more than 270 presidential voters, although President Trump, who is in the challenge of re-election, is focusing on targeting key competing states.
Through its own analysis, CNN diagnosed that President Trump had 163 of the 538 electoral votes (true or dominant), so it was necessary to bring 107 more. He also calculated that after winning all five states in the race – Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida and parts of Maine – where 85 constituents are up for grabs, he should attract 22 more from Biden’s dominant regions. ◇ Biden’s superiority in a career match = However, it is not easy to ‘clean’ in the five races.
According to Real Clear Politics (RCP), which aggregates the average of each poll on the day, Ohio (Trump 3%) is the only place where President Trump currently leads. Biden is slightly ahead of Iowa (Biden 1.4% p) and North Carolina (Biden 0.7% p). It’s a tie in Georgia and Florida.
Assuming you win all these races and secure an additional player in Maine, you should add 22. It’s a traditional Democratic bull region, but only one place won in Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16) and Pennsylvania (20), where Trump won ago. four years, and it doesn’t match the number.
You have to win in two of these ‘Rust Belt’ states. According to the PCR, President Trump is outperforming by 6.4 percentage points in Wisconsin, 8.6 percentage points in Michigan and 3.8 percentage points in Pennsylvania.
◇ Biden National Opinion Poll 12% p ahead = The number of voters that each candidate currently has is different for each predictor.
Another presidential election prediction site, ‘270towin’, said that Biden had 270 candidates and President Trump had a total of 189. President Trump won all races (79) and won 3 in the Biden area. It was analyzed that more than one person should be insured.
The PCR analyzed that Biden currently has 232 candidates and President Trump has 125, and that President Trump should bring more than 89 people from the race (181 in total). In the case of candidate Biden, it is only necessary to insure 38 people or more.
CNN also said that in a poll of 1,005 adults on the 23rd and 26th in collaboration with the polling company SSRS, the national approval rate was 54% for Biden and 42% for President Trump. It is the largest in 20 years since the last week of the presidential elections.
◇ Surveys led by Trump = But there are also completely contradictory perspectives.
The report by Rasmussen, a conservative polling agency that President Trump likes to cite, said that President Trump and candidate Biden are in an “extremely thin” battle.
Based on this, President Trump’s approval rating is 48% and Biden 47%. On the 26th, President Trump was 1 percentage point (p) ahead, and Biden showed a 2 percentage point lead the day before, but the rankings changed again in one day.
The survey was conducted with 1,500 people from 22 to 26. The sampling error is ± 2.5% p. Rasmussen has published the results of the presidential elections every Wednesday since July, but since this week it has been published every day.
However, the Washington Post (WP) noted on the 27th that “President Trump cited the Rasmussen Report and claimed a national advantage. This organization consistently showed very favorable results for President Trump and the Republican Party.”
The WP said Rasmussen had a marginal advantage over the Republican Party just before the 2018 midterm elections, but the result was that Democrats overwhelmingly won.
◇ Is there a ‘Why Trump’? none? = Another conservative voting agency, Trafalka Group chief investigator Robert Kahali, told Fox News on the 20th that there are “hidden votes” that were not included in the polls, saying that President Trump will be re-elected.
“The president will get at least the second half of 270, and the numbers can go up significantly, depending on how big the hidden votes are,” he said.
However, it is difficult to argue that the ‘Why Trump’ vote goes undetected during this year’s election phase.
In a recent Los Angeles Times article, Peter Ens, a professor of public administration at Cornell University, said that they were moderate Republican supporters who made the de facto decision to shoot Trump in connection with the “ shy Trump, ” but They were unable to solidify their decision due to various controversies surrounding President Trump.
Meanwhile, in a poll from four years ago, 14% of undecided people were undecided, with the majority taking President Trump on Election Day. did.
(Seoul = News 1)
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