[ad_1]
Quarantine authorities predicted that the daily spread of the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) will slow again next week, while drawing a line on the possibility of a three-stage update. However, infectious disease experts are showing a cautious response, saying, “It’s hard to predict.”
It is an order to establish quarantine measures from a conservative point of view, as the number of new confirmed cases reached a record 1241 at 0 o’clock on Christmas 25, and there are still many latent infections in the community outside of the quarantine network.
As of 0 o’clock on the 26th, there is a possibility that the number of confirmed patients per day will decrease to around 950 ~ 1000 due to the effect of a decrease in inspection volume on holidays. However, even though there were no large-scale outbreaks like the one at the East Detention Center in Seoul, where 288 people were released a day ago, there is not a small number of confirmed cases around 1,000. Even if it is reduced to less than 1000 people, it is not safe as it reflects the effect of reducing holiday diagnostic tests.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and each local government on the 26th, the number of new confirmed cases counted from 0 a.m. to 11 p.m. on the 25th was 313 in Seoul, 226 in Gyeonggi, 49 in Incheon, 9 in Chungnam, 33 in Gyeongbuk There were 842 people, including 32 from Jeonbuk, 23 from Busan, 22 from Gyeongnam, 14 from Jeju, 14 from Daegu, 13 from Gwangju, 9 Daejeon, 8 from Ulsan, 2 from Jeonnam and 1 from Sejong.
◇ Heavy duty version “Beware, but expected to decrease next week” … Level 3 update is also difficult
The Accident Control Headquarters of the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare said: “The spread of Corona 19 is expected to slow down next week.” It is unusually accepted that quarantine authorities, who have always emphasized social distancing due to concerns about the widespread trend, mentioned the decline.
Yoon Tae-ho, head of the Accident Control Headquarters, said in a regular briefing on the day: “I have a cautious outlook on whether it could go down after next week.”
“In addition to various distancing measures, 2.5 steps in the metropolitan area and second steps across the country, we have vastly expanded the amount of testing to find potentially infected people in the local community as much as possible.” “By placing temporary screening tests in the metropolitan area, a lot of tests are being done,” he added.
Quarantine authorities have installed temporary review and inspection stations in the metropolitan area sequentially since the 14th. Of the 150 originally planned, 147 were installed and 121 new confirmed cases were found at 0 o’clock on the day. The 121 new confirmed cases were 60 in Seoul, 51 in Gyeonggi and 10 in Incheon.
There were a total of 1,025 confirmed cases, with Seoul accounting for about half with 561. Gyeonggi and Incheon numbered 376 and 88 respectively. The positive rate is 0.25%. On the first day of operation of the temporary screening clinic, the positive rate dropped to half the level compared to 0.38%. However, it is difficult to rule out the possibility of an additional group infection, as there are 100 confirmed cases outside the quarantine network.
The reason quarantine authorities predicted a decline in Corona 19 next week is that the infectious material production index remains at 1.2. The infectious reproduction index is an index that indicates how many people can transmit the virus to an infected person. Generally, if the infectious reproduction index is less than 1, the risk of social outbreak is considered low, and if it is greater than 1, the risk is considered high.
The infectious reproduction index of 1.2 means that an infected person is transmitting Corona 19 to 1.2 other people. To curb the spread of Corona 19, the infectious reproduction rate must fall below 1. However, quarantine authorities are relieved that the infectious material production rate has not increased from 1.2, taking into account the seasonal factors of indoor life.
Faced with this situation, the quarantine authorities are cautious when it comes to raising the distance to the third stage. To increase the distance to three stages, confirmed patients must reach a level that medical and quarantine capabilities cannot handle, but this is not the case now.
“We have announced measures to apply special quarantine measures for the end of the year and the New Year holidays until January 3, and to refrain from small workers,” said Yoon Tae-ho, head of general manager of quarantine Jungsu- bon. “If these measures are done well, they may decrease after next week.” did. He added: “There is also room for hospital beds while catching up with medical capacity (proliferation tax) to some extent.”
◇ “The three-step update outline will appear in 1-2 weeks” … Experts say: “When a group infection breaks out, you should change your criteria”
Although quarantine authorities predicted the decline of Corona 19, infectious disease experts remain conservative. Hundreds of confirmed cases are emerging due to group infections outside the quarantine network, and there is a limit to finding all latent infected people in the local community through screening clinics in the metropolitan area.
In the eastern detention center, where 514 cumulative confirmed cases occurred, 187 were found in the first diagnostic test on the 20th, but 288 new confirmed cases were shed in the second recent test. This is because confirmed cases continued to occur even before and after the first examination.
Unlike nursing hospitals and nursing facilities, correctional facilities have not been subject to facilities prone to infection. The surveillance network of the quarantine authorities was also weak. However, there is no law stating that the cases of the second and third detention centers in East Seoul should not come to light, as more than 500 additional infections occurred after a confirmed case occurred.
The Ministry of Justice plans to carry out a comprehensive inspection of detention centers throughout the country. However, if diagnostic tests are not performed regularly, new confirmed cases are likely to occur at any time. There is also a high probability of outbreak outbreaks in unexpected facilities.
Kim Woo-joo, professor of infectious medicine at Daegu Guro Hospital, predicted that confirmed cases will continue to occur unless the distance is raised to three stages. In particular, due to the nature of winter, where there is a lot of life indoors, between 1,500 and 2,000 people were assumed per day, and the authorities ordered measures to be taken.
If the number of confirmed cases per day is about 2000, the national medical system is difficult to manage. In this case, not only the 3rd stage of distancing, but also the large sports facilities in the metropolitan area can be converted into hospitals.
Choi Won-seok, professor of infectious medicine at Ansan University Hospital, also repeatedly pointed out that the infectious reproductive index kept at 1.2 is a situation where the spread has not stopped. He also ordered that if the quarantine authorities want to somehow delay the third stage of distancing, an additional quarantine countermeasure should appear.
“Considering the overall situation in Korea, the Corona 19 spread is unlikely to break easily,” he said. “You can say that the infectious reproduction index is low, but it is still above 1 and it means that the spread continues.”
He added: “There may be more cases in the future leading to an additional infection than hundreds of cases in which a confirmed person is infected,” he added. “The effects of the voluntary quarantine are almost completely eliminated and there is no choice but to take mandatory measures in the future.”
