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With five days to go to the US presidential election, polls continue to show that Democratic candidate Joe Biden is ahead of US President Donald Trump by a wide margin. However, some argue that opening the polls will yield different results. It means that the situation will recover at the time of the 2016 presidential elections.
US President Donald Trump (left) and Democratic candidate Joe Biden (right). [EPA·AFP=연합뉴스]
Christos Makridis, a consultant to the Gallup polling agency, and Jonathan Yakuboski, a professor at Arizona State University in the US, and Jonathan Yakubosky, chairman of the Republican Party in Wood County, Ohio, wrote an article titled “ Don’t believe the polls: Trump wins. ” Media sent to The Hill.
In their article, they said, “We predict that Trump will win the 2020 presidential election. It will also be a great victory.” The three reasons public opinion polls will be lost are ▶ limits on the questions posed by public opinion polls ▶ sample setup errors ▶ current news trends.
First, they pointed out that respondents do not honestly answer socially sensitive questions related to the reliability of public opinion polls. Due to the social climate that critically views President Trump’s words and actions, there are fewer responses in public opinion polls that support Trump. They cited a recent survey by the Mi Kato Institute and noted that about two-thirds of those surveyed said it was difficult to express an honest opinion in the current political environment in America.
He also raised the question of sample surveys. It is argued that the composition of the respondents does not actually represent a variety of voters. For example, Trump supporters, who are wary of public opinion polls, say that despite the low response rate, these characteristics are often not reflected.
The last reason is the news flow. They believe that the news at a certain point has a great influence on the votes of rivals, and the latest news trends are favorable to Trump. Representatively, Biden’s son, Hunter Biden’s laptop, is the news that data was leaked containing the context of the so-called “Ukrainian scandal.” It is argued that this bad news may divert the vote to Biden like the Hillary Clinton “email scandal” that occurred 10 days before the 2016 presidential election.
Reporter Seok Kyung-min [email protected]
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