The statistics cited by the only government as real estate stability were stupid.

Photo = Yonhap News

The National Bureau of Statistics determined that the statistics from the Korea Real Estate Agency (formerly the Korea Appraisal Agency), the official government real estate statistics, were wrong. A series of ripples are expected due to the revelation of a gap in the real estate agent statistics, which the government has cited as the basis for “the housing market to stabilize.”

According to the relevant ministries, on the 13th, the National Statistical Office will release a report on the quality of the statistics for the Real Estate Agency at the end of this month. In this report, the National Statistical Office plans to recommend that the real estate agency increase the number of survey samples and correct the large difference between the weekly statistics and the monthly statistics. The National Statistics Office concluded that “the number of samples in the National Survey of Housing Price Trends in the Real Estate Agency is too small and needs to be supplemented” through the first and second rounds of diagnosis and meetings until last month . The weekly statistics released by the Real Estate Agency weekly only cover inter-house apartments across the country, and only 9,400 households are sampled.

The National Statistical Office diagnosed that the discrepancy between the real estate agent’s weekly and monthly statistics was also serious. The Real Estate Agency said that the sales price of apartments in Seoul has increased 0.01% each week for 10 consecutive weeks since mid-August, but the monthly announced rate of increase in October was 0.4%. The monthly increase rate, combined with the weekly increase rate, should be 0.04 ~ 0.05%, but the monthly increase rate for real estate agents was 10 times higher than this.

週 increased by 0.01%, but the monthly rate of increase was 0.29%? … Real Estate Agency ‘Unusual Statistics’

Land, Infrastructure and Transportation Minister Kim Hyun-mi emphasized that “the rise in house prices has stopped” at the Special Committee on Budget and Accounts of the National Assembly in late August. Statistics from the Korea Real Estate Agency (formerly Korea Appraisal Board) were the basis. Minister Kim said, “By the third week of August, the rate of increase in Seoul was about 0.01%, and the Gangnam 4 districts (Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa, Gangdong-gu) are at 0% during the second week. , so we believe that the increase has stopped. “

According to the statistics of the real estate agency, apartment prices in Seoul increased by only 0.01% for 10 consecutive weeks from August 24 to the end of October, appearing to have entered a stable trend. However, the monthly increase in apartment prices in Seoul, announced by the Real Estate Agency in September, was 0.29%. Although the figures were compiled by the same organization, the statistics differed five times depending on whether the statistics were weekly or monthly.

How many problems … Major surgery in 10 years

Statistics on house prices from real estate agents, which are the target of regular quotes by Minister Kim and other property policy officials, are on the trading table. This is because, as a result of regular quality checks carried out by the National Statistical Office, it was determined that “there are many problems and correction is inevitable”. When the National Statistical Office publishes its official report later this month, the Real Estate Agency will need to present a plan on how and when to implement the recommendations of the National Statistical Office. Otherwise, a real estate agent who became an accredited statistical agency on behalf of Kookmin Bank in 2010 could be disqualified after 10 years.

The government raised a problem with the fact that the number of samples of real estate agents surveyed on house prices was too small. The weekly statistics released by the real estate agent on a weekly basis point only to apartments among houses across the country. The number of weekly statistical samples is only 9,400. The Real Estate Agency decided to increase the number of weekly survey samples from 9,400 households to 13,720 households starting next year, but it does not reach 40% of the number of samples surveyed by Kookmin Bank ( 363,000 households).

The National Statistics Office also recommended correcting the irregular statistics of real estate agents. It is pointed out that the gap between the weekly price increase rate and the monthly price increase rate must be bridged. According to real estate statistics, apartment prices in Seoul increased by 0.01% to 0.02% per week from the second week of October to the second week of November. It is an arithmetic increase of 0.05 to 0.06% for one month. However, the monthly price of apartments in Seoul, which was surveyed by the real estate agent during the same period (October 13 to November 9), was 0.12%, which is double the level.

The appraisers explain that the results are inevitably different because the sample houses in the weekly apartment survey only and the monthly survey of all houses are different. However, the National Statistical Office recommended that “the gap between weekly and monthly surveys should be reduced by designing the same samples.”

10 times the difference of Kookmin Bank statistics

It is also different from the statistics compiled by private organizations. The Real Estate Agency reported that last week (as of December 7), apartment prices in Seoul rose 0.03%. In contrast, the rate of increase in apartment prices in Seoul, surveyed by Kookmin Bank during the same period, was 0.37%, more than 10 times higher.

According to a survey by the Real Estate Agency, apartment prices in Seoul increased by 16.2% last month compared to when President Moon Jae-in took office (May 2017). However, the rate of increase surveyed by Kookmin Bank was 36.6%. The Citizens’ Federation for Economic Justice Practices (Gyeongsil-ryeon) announced last month that the price of apartments in Seoul for three years of the Moon Jae-in administration increased by 58%, from 26.2 million won. for 3.3 square meters at 4156 million won.

The same goes for the full game. According to Kookmin Bank, apartment rentals in Seoul increased by 6.4% in three months from August to last month, just after the implementation of the new lease protection law. During the same period, the rate of increase in jeonse prices surveyed by the Real Estate Agency was only 1.9%.

As confidence in real estate resource statistics declines, even government agencies are moving away from real estate resource statistics. The Housing and Urban Guarantee Corporation (HUG), a public institution under the Ministry of Lands, Infrastructure and Transport, has limited the subscription to the jeonse mobile deposit-back guarantee service to apartments and residential offices registered at the market price from Kookmin Bank.

Jae-Hyun Jang, head of RealToday’s Research Division, said: “The statistics on weekly apartment prices at the Real Estate Agency are so small that there is a limit to closely reflect the nation’s market conditions.” He pointed out that there is a lot of room for the involvement of real estate agent supervision because it happens.

Reporter Jeong In-seol / Shin Yeon-soo [email protected]