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| ▲ Candidate Biden giving a “Confidence in the presidential elections” US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden will deliver a speech at the Wilmington Chase Center in Delaware on the 4th (local time) saying he is confident of winning the election. In his speech, he said: “It is clear that we are winning enough in several states to reach the 270 voters needed for the presidential election.” | |
| Ⓒ Wilmington AP = Yonhap News |
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Who will win the 2020 US presidential election?
The official count and recount for the 2020 presidential election, which began on Tuesday, November 3, US local time, is still in progress at the time of writing this article on Friday, November 6. An outline of who has been elected as the next president will be released around 2 to 3 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, the day after the election, but this year, although it has been three days since the election, no the winner is known.
In fact, even after the expected winners of the US presidential election are announced, states need more time to finalize their counts and announce the official election results. The reason for this is the following.
First, there are several ways to choose, in addition to voting at the polling place, absentee voting, voting by mail, and voting and casting directly to the official polls. For example, if you vote by mail on Election Day and arrive at the field three days later, the ballot will be counted and counted three days later. In addition, under state election laws, mail-in ballots and absentee ballots begin counting after the number of votes is completed on Election Day. In addition, when the votes are counted, a notice must be sent to the voter, so they must enter it into the computer. Therefore, the higher the volume, the longer you will have to wait for the official election results.
Corona 19 pandemic and election
This year’s presidential elections appear to have cast around 150 million votes in an unofficial recount. Compared to 130 million votes in 2016, around 20 million people voted. There were also concerns about declining turnout due to the pandemic, but the day before Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, 100 million people had already voted. So about 50 million people voted on Election Day.
Reportedly, of the 100 million voters who completed the election early, about 65% are Biden supporters and about 35% are Trump supporters. The reasons for such statistics are as follows. The United States must register to vote early to vote. As in Korea, it is different than being able to vote after going to the polling place with your resident registration card on Election Day and verifying it against the electoral roll. When registering for voting rights, there is a box that indicates the party that supports the party, such as Democrat, Republican, or Independent. Therefore, when they vote, statistics on which supporters voted.
Democratic supporters concerned about the coronavirus infection voted by mail before Election Day to avoid large crowds, and Trump supporters, who believe the coronavirus is a hoax, went to the polls on Election Day and cast their ballots. votes. And most states began counting mail-in votes after all votes had been counted on Election Day. So like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Georgia, Trump leads by a big margin early and is outscored by Biden in the last minute.
Importance of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania
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| ▲ US Presidential Election D-2 … Trump runs in Michigan US President Donald Trump is competing in Washington, Michigan, for the first time (local time) two days before the presidential election. On this day, President Trump held a strong march around five states, mostly in the race states like Michigan and Florida. | |
| Ⓒ Yonhap News / AP |
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Given that Donald Trump was ahead in the first part of the count, it seems that there were many people who thought they would again annul the poll results and be elected president. In particular, in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, where a close battle was expected, Donald Trump took the lead by a big difference early on. In fact, the reason Trump was elected president of the United States in 2016 was because he was able to bring in all the electoral bodies from the three previous states.
Father Bush in 1988 was the last Republican candidate to obtain 16 electoral votes in Michigan before the 2016 presidential election. Also, the last Republican presidential candidate to win 10 electoral votes in Wisconsin was Reagan in 1984. The Electoral Body’s 20 votes Pennsylvania also pushed the Democratic nominee after he returned to his father, Bush, in 1988.
In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton with 10,000 votes in Michigan, 20,000 in Wisconsin, and 40,000 in Pennsylvania. People hate Hillary Clinton so much that even Democratic supporters gave up voting and Trump was lucky to win. If turnout is high like this year, it is highly unlikely that Trump will win the constituencies of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which have traditionally supported Democratic presidential candidates.
The end of the 2020 US presidential election
If Joe Biden is elected president number 46, he will be the most voted president in the history of the United States.
Analyzing this choice, the polarization between big cities and rural areas is clear. Donald Trump received active support from rural residents, and many Americans living in large cities elected Joe Biden as president. The reason Joe Biden was able to lead in Pennsylvania, which was once behind nearly 700,000 votes, is because he was convicted in metropolitan areas like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
President Trump looks more like a cult leader than a political leader, so his followers trust him and follow his every word. Now, Trump insists on rigged elections and speaks as if he is fighting in court. The Trump campaign has run out of campaign funds, so I don’t know if it has the financial capacity to sue in four states at the same time: Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. Also, the lawsuit is against the state, so if you do not provide evidence that you have made a fraudulent election, you will lose the lawsuit.
Biden’s victory has yet to be officially confirmed. Although the counts have not been completed, Trump will win the electoral bodies of North Carolina and Alaska, and Biden will likely take the electoral bodies of Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania and Georgia. Later, Biden will be elected president of the United States with 306-232.
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| ▲ As the US presidential elections are counted for a fourth local time, candidate Biden, who announced his office, clenches his fists. | |
| Ⓒ Yonhap News / AP |
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