The OECD has lowered Korea’s growth rate, but the government “has gone up” … After that, cheat statistics

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) lowered Korea’s forecast for this year’s economic growth rate by just one month. This is because it reflects the economic slowdown that followed the reproliferation of the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19). However, the Ministry of Strategy and Finance published an erratic press release stating that the forecast for the economic growth rate has increased. Excluding August, which had the highest forecast, compared to the June forecast, which was not good.

Intermediate economic outlook for the OECD as revealed by the Ministry of Science and Technology. The August forecast was excluded and compared with the June forecast. Ministry of Strategy and Finance

The OECD forecast Korea’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate this year at -1.0% in ‘Intermediate Economic Outlook’ on the 16th. This is 0.2 percentage points lower than the -0.8% estimate. in the OECD Korean Economic Report on 11 last month. Although the OECD did not specify Korea in this report, it said: “The recovery momentum is weakening as the recent crown 19 proliferates again in major countries.”

In particular, the OECD was concerned that slow global trade could be a factor limiting the recovery of the Korean economy. He also noted that the share of employment in industries affected by Corona 19 is higher than in other countries.

However, the Ministry of Science and Technology announced in a press release of the day that “(this forecast) has risen by + 0.2% points compared to the June forecast.” Regarding last month’s outlook, he only mentioned that “the scope of the increase was somewhat smaller than last month’s economic outlook.”

This is a very different response than when the August outlook from the OECD came out. At the time, the Blue House and the government cited this perspective as a key figure and praised themselves. Hong Nam-ki, Deputy Prime Minister of Economy and Minister of Strategy and Finance, said on his SNS: “The growth rate forecast for 2020 has also risen (-1.2% → -0.8%). This is the first case where the growth rate outlook has been revised upward since the OECD released its economic outlook in June. “President Moon Jae-in also praised:” The growth rate of Korea of ​​the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ranks first among 37 OECD countries.

However, since the growth rate forecast was lowered due to Corona 19 reproliferation, the August forecast was removed from the comparison. Professor Sung Tae-yoon from the Department of Economics at Yonsei University said: “It is correct to prepare for the latest figures of the forecast of the economic growth rate,” he said. Even if not compared to June figures, this forecast is the highest growth rate among OECD member countries.

The Ministry of Strategy and Finance said: “Because we compared the forecast for June in the original text of the OECD report, we made that statement.” “Because the August forecast was for Korea only, we used the June forecast as a comparison target.”

Sejong = Reporter Kim Namjun [email protected]