The government aims to resume dialogue with North Korea next July … “Explaining North Korea Policy to Biden”

Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha greets before a meeting with United States Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Washington, United States, on the 9th (local time). [외교부 제공]

Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha held a luncheon with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on the 9th (local time) with US foreign ministers, the Foreign Ministry said. It is rare to replace the ministerial talks between Korea and the United States with lunch. It can be said that it reflects the messy atmosphere of the Donald Trump administration, which has been inclined to win and lose, but is not yet winning the presidential election.

From Minister Kang’s perspective, as soon as Joe Biden has been confirmed as the next president, an interview with Biden on the way to the visit has become more important. As all-out wars are being carried out in every country to interview key people in the next government, Minister Kang is expected to try to do so.

Some say they will contact former Defense Minister Michelle Plenoi, who is on the brink of the Defense Minister, but the Foreign Ministry has not confirmed this. This is because the Trump administration’s term has yet to end, and it was formally at the invitation of Minister Pompeo, and Biden’s side is also burdened by meeting openly with foreign envoys.

On Biden’s side, it has been said that the presidential inauguration team has not been established, and there are political practices that are not openly encountered by foreign envoys during the handover of power. That is why there is a high possibility that both Korea and the US will not reveal until the end, even if the interview is done.

On the other hand, there is an analysis that it is not known whether diplomats will always benefit from contacting Biden early. In a call with JoongAng Ilbo, Congressman Cho Tae-yong advised, “The first thing to do is look back at the Moon administration’s overall North Korean policy and change its direction.”

It is pointed out that entering the Biden policy on North Korea promoted by the Trump administration without changing the policy or the Moon administration’s approach towards North Korea, which generated controversy, could have counterproductive effects. In this regard, a source said: “I know that when Minister Kang meets with Biden, he will explain key issues such as North Korean politics.”

The administration’s top priority is also maintaining the Trump administration’s commitment to North Korea. Specifically, a plan will be discussed to promote the resumption of dialogue between the North and the United States and North Korea before and after the Tokyo Olympics, scheduled for next July.

On October 15 (local time), Blue House National Security Officer Seo-hoon, who met with Secretary Mike Pompeo at the Washington State Department, answers questions from correspondents. [워싱턴특파원단]

Previously, Seo Hoon, head of the Blue House Office of National Security, met with Senior Advisor Robert O’Brien at the White House National Security Council (NSC) in October and proposed the Olympics initiative. Tokyo prepared by the government. In fact, it was Assistant O’Brien who revealed the content of this discussion to the media. However, considering that the United States was only a month before the presidential elections and that it was primarily Korea that came up with the idea of ​​a North Korea-US policy toward North Korea, it was reasonable to view it as a Korean proposal.

The Tokyo Olympics government’s choice as the time to resume the dialogue eight months later may be to recreate the precedent that led to the PyeongChang Winter Olympics in February 2018, followed by the inter-Korean summit (April) → summit North Korea-United States (June). The tension between ‘flame and anger’ in 2017 was dramatically eased by Kim Yeo-jung, then the first vice chairman of the Labor Party Central Committee, and Kim Young-nam, the permanent chairman of the Supreme People’s Assembly, visiting in Korea at the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. In reality, it appears that the US presidential election calendar and the possibility of regime change were also calculated.

In short, a scenario is possible in which the government intends to attend the Tokyo Olympics and resume dialogue with the North Koreans. For this idea to work, the support and cooperation of the United States are essential, and Minister Kang may have forced a visit to the United States immediately after the presidential elections to lay the groundwork for such discussions with Biden.

Signs are everywhere that the government is giving great importance to the Tokyo Olympics. It is also noteworthy that ‘Gang Kyung-hwa’s visit to the US-Park Ji-won’ to Japan took place at the same time.

The head of the National Intelligence Service, Park Ji-won, is visiting Japan for the inauguration of the new Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and is discussing with the Japanese government. On the surface, the question of solving the problem of forced labor and export restrictions and Prime Minister Suga’s invitation to the Korea-China-Japan summit this year, but the big picture is that the government is trying to request the Japanese government cooperation in North Korea’s participation in the Tokyo Olympics in July. to have.

It is also significant that Roh Tae-gang, the second deputy minister of the Ministry of Culture, Sports and Tourism, who is considered the largest beneficiary of the Moon government staff, was appointed Korean ambassador to Switzerland, where the IOC headquarters are located. Former Deputy Minister Roh was demoted by former President Park Geun-hye as a “bad person” and then rejoined the Moon government, and has since been classified as a helper of the regime. If Ambassador Roh is officially appointed, contacting IOC headquarters staff and the North Korean delegation could be an important task in connection with the organization of the Tokyo Olympics.

Normally, when the US administration is launched, it takes at least six months to a year to review the foreign policy of the previous regime. When the cabinet of the Biden government is quickly formed, the Secretary of State-Special Representative for North Korean Policy line will also be reorganized. Since this period is delayed, there are observations that the period of the Biden government’s involvement in North Korea will also be delayed.

Candidate Joe Biden was elected the 46th president of the United States. [AP=연합뉴스]

Of course, the timing of Biden’s cabinet formation is key as the Trump administration also appointed a special representative for North Korea, Stephen Vegan, in September 2018, after the first summit meeting between North Korea and the United States. States (June 12, 2018). It was also analyzed that it was not a variable.

On the 7th (local time), Biden chose to respond to Corona 19 internally and return to the Paris Convention on Climate Change as the main policy through his victory speech and tweets on the 7th (local time). Even if the government is formed as quickly as possible, the return of the Paris Climate Agreement and the Iran Nuclear Agreement (JCPOA) annulled by the Trump administration could become the first foreign policy.

Some counterarguments say the timing of the Biden administration’s involvement in North Korea is up to North Korea. “If North Korea does not judge and engages in serious provocations like the Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), the biden government attempts additional sanctions like the UN Security Council, and the same tension as in 2017 could reproduce.“I pointed. In this case, the time for the Biden administration to enter into dialogue with North Korea could be delayed by more than a year.

Reporters Jung Hyo-sik and Lee Yoo-jeong [email protected]