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This year, the domestic car market is expected to face a period of transition to the age of the cars of the future, such as electrification and autonomous driving. It’s an analysis that the end of the full-blown electric vehicle era will increase as the number of new electric vehicle launches from global automakers, including Hyundai Motor Group, continues.
◇ Promote green industries in major countries by strengthening environmental regulations … Is the era of electric vehicles opening?
According to the industry on Day 1, market research institutes predict that the demand for electric vehicles will increase sharply starting this year. Along with tightening regulations on carbon dioxide emissions, countries increasingly plan to ban the sale of vehicles with internal combustion engines, and the world’s leading countries, such as the United States and Europe, are struggling to foster green industries. to fuel the economic recession in the wake of the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19). .
The forecast that electric vehicle sales will rise dramatically between 2021 and 2030 is even more powerful. Morgan Stanley predicts that by 2030, pure electric vehicles will account for 31% of the global car market. SNE Research predicted global electric vehicle sales this year at 6.87 million units. The electric vehicle market is also expected to grow at an annual average of 21%.
In line with this, the electrification strategies of global automakers are also accelerating. Starting with the launch of the ‘Ioniq 5’ this year, Hyundai Motor Company will significantly expand its line of electric vehicles. Its goal is to sell 560,000 units per year by introducing more than 12 models by 2025, including electric vehicles and derivative models based on E-GMP, a platform dedicated to electric vehicles.
The same is the case with foreign companies such as General Motors (GM), Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Audi Volkswagen Group. In particular, GM CEO Mary Barra announced in October last year a plan to invest $ 20 billion in electric vehicles and battery technology for electric vehicles by 2025. GM also announced a goal of launching more than 30 vehicle models. electric vehicles by 2025 and sell 1 million electric vehicles in the global market.
The competitiveness of Korean automakers is assessed as being sufficient amid fierce global competition. The Export-Import Bank of Korea’s Overseas Economic Research Institute recently released an industry outlook report that featured electric vehicle exports this year at $ 7 billion, a 70% increase from the previous year. . In particular, it is explained that national electric vehicles are recognized for their design and performance in foreign markets, so exports can continue to increase.
Following the Ioniq 5, Hyundai Motor Company plans to launch the ‘Ionik 6’ midsize sedan and the ‘Ionik 7’ large sport utility vehicle (SUV) in 2022 and 2024, respectively. Kia Motors is also launching a new ‘CV’ (project name) electric vehicle. Luxury brand Genesis also plans to launch ‘JW’ (project name) and G80-based electric vehicle models.
The Overseas Economic Research Institute analyzes that the global demand for electric vehicles has passed the initial stage of the market and has entered a stage of full-blown growth. The Industry Research Institute also predicted that demand for green cars will increase significantly this year as environmental regulations emerge as a major issue.
Kang Jeong-hwa, Senior Researcher at the Overseas Economic Research Institute, said: “The number of electric vehicle exports has increased for 40 consecutive months, and the average export price of electric vehicles is $ 30,000, which is more higher than internal combustion locomotives ($ 19,500). Prospect, “he explained.
The hydrogen electric vehicle market, which was only a test market until last year, is expected to form with a scale of 200,000 units starting in 2025. Hydrogen electric vehicles are superior to electric vehicles in terms of respect for the environment, mileage and charging time. Principal Investigator Kang said: “In the case of hydrogen electric vehicles, large-scale investments for the initial expansion of infrastructure are unavoidable” and “However, if the active supply policies of European countries and participation China in the market expand, can grow to 1 million units by 2030. ” .
◇ Are ‘high fees’, which gave HMM the highest return in 10 years, falter in the second quarter?
The outlook for the shipping industry, which enjoyed an unexpected boom last year due to Corona 19, is somewhat mixed. According to the global economic recovery movement, freight and freight rates will generally increase compared to the previous year. However, tankers are expected to have large inventory due to increased imports of low-priced goods from each country, and production cuts are expected to continue in oil-producing countries, so it is difficult to expect. an increase in demand.
In the midst of this, there is also the view that the high freight march in the container division, which gave a surplus to HMM (formerly Hyundai Merchant Marine) and SM Merchant Marine, could be a turning point in the second quarter of this year when new boats are introduced.
Shipping rates have risen dramatically since the second half of last year, as shipments have been delayed due to global supply cuts due to Corona 19, and the economic recovery in major countries has made finding ships difficult. The Shanghai Container Rate Index (SCFI), which shows the flow of container freight rates, hit an all-time high of 2,641.87 as of 25 last month.
Thanks to this, HMM went black in 21 quarters in the second quarter and posted an operating profit of 277.1 billion won in the third quarter. There are also high expectations of achieving an annual surplus. The securities industry estimates HMM’s Q4 operating profit at 400 billion won. SM Merchant Marine is also expected to have the largest surplus since its inception.
NH Investment & Securities researcher Jeong Yeon-seung said: “Starting in April this year, the 10,000 TEU class ships will be put seriously on the US route, and the ships ordered by HMM will be delivered. early in the second trimester. ” It is judged as the inflection point of the tariff. “
Yang Jong-seo, senior researcher at the Overseas Economic Research Institute, said: “If you refer to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) trade outlook, this year’s trade volume will increase due to the base effect, but it is not expected for absolute trade volume to recover to the 2019 level prior to Corona 19. “
It was written with content provided through News1.
