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The KOSPI index is forecast to open a new era of 3000 next year. The market is expected to continue to rise as interest concentrates in new growth industries, such as the Korean version of the New Deal policy, and the anticipation of an economic recovery after the new coronavirus infection pandemic (Corona 19).
On the 24th, Hankyung.com examined the KOSPI outlook for the coming year across 11 national securities companies, and KB Securities and Shinhan Investment Corp. submitted the highest 3,200.
KB Securities predicted that the KOSPI in the first half will go from the 2500 ~ 3050 line and increase to 3200 in the second half. Shin Dong-jun and Yoo Seung-chang, director of KB’s Securities Research Center, said: “There is concern about the possibility of austerity at the central bank (Fed) due to rising inflation” and “As Corona 19 vaccine spreads, the expectation of resuming economic activities accordingly is spreading.
Yoon Chang-yong, director of Shinhan Financial Investment Research Center, said: “Slow employment will ease and household purchasing power will resume, focusing on the face-to-face service industry, which was hit by Corona 19. This year, it is approximately 70% of the decrease in income from economic activity (average negative growth of 3.4%). Recovery will be possible. “
Most securities companies, such as NH Investment & Securities Daishin Securities and Meritz Securities, predicted that the KOSPI will exceed 3,000 next year.
“The second half of the year comes in the 3000 era … Improving corporate performance is key”
Most brokerage firms expected the 3000 era to begin in the second half of next year. Oh Tae-dong, director of NH’s Securities and Investment Research Center, said: “In the second half of the year, governments of major countries are expected to legislate on expanding environmental investment. interest in new growing industries, the stock market will continue to rally. “
Daeshin Securities Research Center Director Jeong Yeon-woo also said, “Central banks in major countries will raise expectations for a global economic recovery by offering additional quantitative easing and economic stimulus measures at the same time.” “The intensity of the economic and commercial recovery and the degree of improvement in corporate performance will also be a major driving force.” did.
Rising corporate performance and rising corporate value are supporting factors in the KOSPI 3000 era. Meritz Securities forecasts that KOSPI’s net profit will expand to 150 trillion won in 2022 based on the normalization of the economy and new industries. growing.
Lee Kyung-soo, director of the Meritz Securities Research Center, said: “The key to the index increase is the expansion of the technology growth industry and the level of corporate performance,” and “Corona 19 vaccines and measures economic stimulus play a secondary role. ”
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On the other hand, some securities firms have a somewhat conservative outlook on the KOSPI outlook. Samsung Securities estimates that the KOSPI next year will only reach 2850. It is expected to exceed the 2600-2800 line in the first half and the 2700-2850 line in the second half.
“There is a possibility that vaccination and delivery of Corona 19 vaccines and treatments will be delayed or deterrence of confirmed cases may be limited,” said Oh Hyun-seok, director of the Research Center at Samsung Securities. “There is room for the geopolitical burden to reappear,” he diagnosed.
IBK Investment & Securities also forecasts that the KOSPI for the first half of the year will be between 2,500 and 2,900 and the peak for the second half will be 2,700, respectively. Jeong Yong-taek, Director of IBK’s Securities and Investments Research Center, said: “After the corona 19 vaccine stimulus and vaccination announcements, upward pressure may weaken as expectations are reflected in the price of the actions”. “If the real economic recovery becomes visible it will determine the direction of the index. It is difficult for the economy to normalize immediately.”
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Corona 19 vaccine dissemination is ‘key’ … ECG-themed injury
The stock market noted that the spread of the Corona 19 vaccine was the biggest factor in the KOSPI 3000 era. There is a risk that US-China relations will deteriorate since the inauguration of the US Biden government, but we believe that the vaccine supply situation is paramount.
Seo Cheol-soo, director of the Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Center, emphasized: “Speed and success with vaccine distribution is important. This can influence the pace of economic recovery and corporate profit growth, and it will affect the timing of the exit strategy from monetary policy. “
Factors that will slow the KOSPI’s uptrend include an increase in interest rates and the lifting of the ban on short selling.
Oh Tae-dong, Director of the NH Securities and Investments Center, said: “In March and May next year, in commemoration of the first anniversary of the COVID-19 outbreak, there will be a base effect of inflation, which may stimulate interest rates to increase and increase the valuation burden on the stock market. ” It is also a downward factor that foreigners and institutions may resume short selling strategies due to the expiration of the ban. “
In terms of politics, it is recommended to pay attention to the Korean version of the New Deal. Daeshin Securities Research Center Director Jeong Yeon-woo said: “As the Korean version of New Deal policy is in full swing next year, a government-led investment expansion is expected and private participation “. “On the market, positive changes will appear in the information technology (IT) and renewable energy industries. It will,” he predicted.
Hana Financial Investment said to pay attention to whether the ESG (environmental, social, governance) issue comes up and whether the Biden inauguration and green infrastructure investment policy will continue.
Eunbit Go, Reporter Hankyung.com [email protected]
