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Largest 23-month increase in manufacturing shipments … Service Consumption Plus in step 2.5
“Economic indicators, a direction for the economic recovery … The recovery expectations in the fourth quarter are increasing”
The finished vehicles are waiting in the yard next to the export shipping dock at the Hyundai Motors factory in Ulsan. Yunhap news
In September, industrial production, consumption and investment recorded an increase in the so-called ‘triple increase’ in three months. This is due to the fact that exports in September increased for the first time since the Corona 19 incident and the effects of Chuseok consumption overlapped.
According to the ‘Industrial Activity Trend for September’ published by the National Statistical Office on the 30th, all industrial production in September (excluding seasonal adjustment and agriculture, forestry and fishing) increased by 2.3% compared to the month previous. Retail sales, showing consumer trends, increased 1.7%. The increase decreased from August (3.0%), but it is an increase for two consecutive months. This part also had the Chuseok effect.
Kim Yong-beom, the first deputy minister of the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, assessed the service industry’s production and retail sales as positive as “better than expected.” Considering that the intensity of social distancing in the first half of September was 2.5, and the second half of September was 2, although the negative was not recorded, it is worth making sense of it.
Investment in facilities increased 7.4%. This is the largest increase in six months since March (7.5%). Although machinery (-1.5%) decreased, investment in transportation equipment (34.3%) such as ships increased.
The cyclical fluctuation of the coincident index that indicates that the current economy rose 0.3 points from the previous month. It has been increasing for 4 consecutive months since June. The cyclical fluctuation of the leading index, an index that predicts the future economy, also rose 0.4 points from the previous month, which is the rise in the fourth month.
It is the first time from October 2005 to January 2006 that the two indices have risen together for four consecutive months.
Ahn Hyung-joon, an examiner of economic trend statistics, assessed that “the cyclical fluctuation of the coincident index and the cyclical fluctuation of the leading index have increased together for the fourth month, and in terms of numbers, economic improvement can be expected.”
Deputy Prime Minister Hong Nam-ki and Minister of Equipment, “All the important indicators recently announced point to an economic recovery in one direction.” “It is a significant result of a relative brightness.”
However, many estimate that the 4Q economy is still uncertain. The National Bureau of Statistics said: “Uncertainty remains high, such as the conflict between the United States and China and the reproliferation of Corona 19,” and the Ministry of Information and Communication warned that “there are risk factors such as the global reproliferation of the Crown 19 “.
