Severe-severe patients 2 weeks from 9 to 104

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As the number of seriously ill and seriously ill patients with a new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) in Korea on day 1 exceeded the first 100, quarantine authorities became more concerned about the future situation. This is because, since the time in which patients reach the severe stage is 7 to 10 days after the diagnosis is confirmed, the sudden increase in serious and serious patients cannot be avoided at the moment. Since the 22nd of last month, there are 200 to 400 new confirmed cases every day. When classifying Corona 19-related patients, quarantine authorities divide into seriously ill patients if oxygen injection treatment is required and critically ill patients if mechanical (forced) respiration measures are required because they cannot breathe on their own. themselves. Critically ill patients and critically ill patients are considered critically ill.

○ “At the moment, seriously and seriously ill patients are expected to increase significantly”

Previously, the Central Clinical Committee for New Infectious Diseases predicted that on the 25th of last month, assuming 300 new confirmed cases appear every day, the number of seriously ill patients will peak at 130 around the 3rd of this month. As expected, the number of patients is increasing rapidly. On the day the Central Clinical Committee made such a prediction, there were 37 seriously ill patients, but it increased to 104, which almost tripled on the first day of this month after a week.

Joon-wook Kwon, Deputy Chief of the Central Defense Countermeasures Headquarters, said in a briefing on day 1: “Considering the time difference in which the confirmed person reaches a critical stage, the size of the patients with serious and serious illnesses significantly increase at the moment “. The number of seriously ill patients is very likely to increase and the number of deaths is likely to increase over time. ”

Choi Won-seok, professor of infectious medicine at Korea University Ansan Hospital, said: “The number of seriously ill patients generally increases after 7 days or more after the group infection outbreak.” Even at the time of the Daegu-Gyeongbuk epidemic, more deaths occurred after March 9, when the number of new confirmed cases peaked (909) on February 29 and fell below 200.
The number of seriously ill and seriously ill patients increased markedly after the three-day Liberation Day holiday. On the 18th of last month, just after the holidays, there were 9 people, which is single digits, but on the 23rd it increased to 29 people, 58 people on the 28th and 79 people on the 31st. On the 1st of this month, 25 people increased from the previous day, becoming the first three-digit number since January 20, when the first crown19 was confirmed in Korea. According to quarantine authorities, the number of seriously ill and seriously ill patients during the outbreak in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region centered on the Shincheonji Jesus Bridge in February and March this year was the highest on March 23.

○ The main cause is the increase in elderly patients

Quarantine authorities are citing an increase in the number of high-risk elderly patients as the cause of the significant increase in the number of seriously ill and seriously ill patients. Of the 235 new cases confirmed on day 1, 85 were 60 years or older, representing 36.2%. This is about 10 percentage points higher than the rate of 26.3% in people over 60 years of the total of 20,182 confirmed cases. In the second epidemic of Corona 19, the epicenter of the metropolitan area, the proportion of elderly people increased.

Before August 12, when the first confirmed cases related to the Sarangjeil Church in Seongbuk-gu, Seoul, the proportion of new confirmed patients aged 60 and over was only 13.0%. Professor Jeon Byung-yul from Cha Medical University Graduate School of Medicine said: “During the first epidemic in the Daegu-Gyeongbuk region, most of the confirmed cases were young, so the rate of serious and serious patients was not as high as now “. “Older patients, more underlying diseases and As it progresses rapidly, there are many cases that lead to serious illness.” As of day 1, 65 of 104 critically ill and severely ill patients (62.5%) were found to have underlying diseases.

As the number of seriously ill patients increased, an emergency was necessary to secure a bed. As of August 31, there are only 43 beds nationwide and 9 in the metropolitan area where seriously ill patients can be admitted immediately. Recently, there are 5 in Seoul, where about 100 confirmed cases come out daily. If the number of seriously ill patients continues to rise as it is now, treatment with remdesivir, a treatment for COVID-19, may not be available. Last month, the government capped drug targets to more than 70 when it became difficult to secure remdesivir supply due to supplier circumstances.

Image [email protected], Reporter Kim So-min