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In the preferences of the next presidential candidate, a poll showed on the 30th that Democratic Party Representative Lee Nak-yeon, Attorney General Yoon Seok-yeol and Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-myung will make a three-finger match inside margin of error. Real Meter received a request from OhmyNews, and from 23-27, Lee scored 20.6% in a preference survey of 14 presidential candidates versus 2,538 men and women aged 18 and over (response rate 4 , 5%, contacting 56,698 people). , President Yoon recorded 19.8% and Governor Lee recorded 19.4%. The gap between 1st and 3rd place is an ultraslim ice pattern of 1.2 percentage points, within the margin of error (± 1.9% p to the 95% confidence level).
Nak-Yeon Lee and Jae-Myeong Lee and the margin of error
Chu Miae is the third passport candidate
This is the result of President Yoon’s increasing preference and the other two’s decreasing preference. Compared to the same poll last month, President Yoon’s preference increased 2.6 percentage points to 19.8%, while Lee 21.5% → 20.6% and Lee Governor 21.5% → 19.4%.
Monthly trend of preference for the next presidential candidates. Graphic = Reporter Park Kyung-min [email protected]
Regional thesis If Lee was very strong in Honam (45.8% → 43.3%), then Lee Governor had the advantage in Incheon and Gyeonggi (26% → 24.6%). However, President Yoon, as well as Daegu, Gyeongbuk (17.7% → 27.3%), Busan, Ulsan, Gyeongnam (20.2% → 21.8%), and Seoul (16.7% → 20, 6%), which can be called a kind of ‘swing state’ (floating class), Chungcheong (17.2% → 20.3%) also went ahead. The approval ratings for Representative Lee and Governor Lee this month in Seoul and Chungcheong were 17.9%, 17.5%, 18.3%, and 16.4%, respectively.
Amid the ideological trend, President Yoon was at 23.6%, higher than Governor Lee (20%) and CEO Lee (19.2%). In conservative tendencies, President Yoon (30.3%), in Jinbo, Lee (32.7%) and Governor Lee (30.9%) showed the advantage.
Preference for the next presidential election corridors in November. Graphic = Reporter Park Kyung-min [email protected]
Meanwhile, Justice Minister Choo Mi-ae also registered a 3.1% preference for the presidential elections and was polled as third place on the passport after Lee and Governor Lee. Minister Chu was followed by Gyeongnam Governor Kim Gyeong-soo (1.8%) and former Democratic Party legislator Kim Bu-gyeom (0.8%).
Among the opposition candidates, independent legislator Hong Joon-pyo (5.1%), Ahn Cheol-soo, Chairman of the National Assembly Party (3.5%), Yoo Seung-min, former member of the Party of Future Integration (3.3%) and Oh Se-hoon, former mayor of Seoul (3.0%), were in order.
As a result, 48.1% of respondents who supported the Pan-Jeong-bo passport candidate were ahead of those who supported the pan-conservative opposition candidate (41.7%). However, the gap between the two was 6.4 percentage points, which narrowed significantly from 10.2 percentage points last month and 33.8 percentage points in the April survey.
For more information, see the Real Meter website or the Central Election Survey Deliberation Committee.
Reporter Han Young-ik [email protected]
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