Real economy mixed with uncertainty and expectations … The first drop in industrial production last year, the leading economic index for the seventh month ↑
Enter 2021-01-29 10:21 | Revision 2021-01-29 10:23
▲ A busy restaurant ⓒ Yonhap News
The national industrial production index was found to decline 0.8% from the previous year due to the impact of Corona 19 (Wuhan pneumonia) from China last year. It was lowered for the first time since 2000, when related statistics were launched. Consumption also decreased due to the Corona 19 incident. However, investment in facilities increased mainly in machinery.
Last month, when the third Corona 19 spread began in earnest, as social distancing strengthened, food and beverage purchases increased, and even the base effect overlapped, breaking expectations and consumption rebounded slightly.
The cyclical fluctuation of the leading economic index, which predicts the future economic situation, continued to increase for 7 months. It can be interpreted as a result of the anticipation of economic recovery after the development of the Corona 19 vaccine.
◇ Last year’s production … Mining industry 0.4% ↑ · Service industry 2.0% ↓
According to the 2020 industrial activity trend published by the National Statistics Office on the 29th, the total industrial production index (seasonal adjustment) excluding agriculture, forestry and fishing last year was 107.2 (2015 = 100), 0.8% less than a year ago. It was the first time since 2000, when relevant statistics were published. Production fell sharply in the construction and service industries. The production of the mining industry increased 0.4% over the previous year, decreasing in automobiles and metal processing, and increasing in semiconductors and mechanical equipment. The average utilization rate for the manufacturing industry was 71.3%, 1.9 percentage points (p) less than the previous year. Production in the service industry also fell 2.0% from the previous year. The increase in finance, insurance and real estate due to the increase in the stock market and the prices of real estate like ‘Three Thousand P’ and ‘Cheon’s Dock’, but the decrease in transportation, warehouses, lodging and restaurants was as large as The travel and tourism industries were affected by Corona 19.
Consumption decreased 0.2% from the previous year, as sales of durable goods such as passenger cars (10.9%) increased due to the impact of cuts in the individual consumption tax and the launch of new cars, but semi-durable goods such as clothing (-12.2%) and non-durable goods such as cosmetics (-0.4%) decreased. It recovered in the second quarter and continued to rise through the third quarter, but fell again in the fourth quarter.
In terms of investment in facilities, investment in transport equipment such as aircraft (-0.3%) decreased, but increased by 6.0% compared to the previous year, as investment in machinery such as special industrial machinery increased (8 , 6%).
The performance of construction, which shows the real performance of construction by construction companies in terms of amount, increased civil works (5.5%), but construction (-5.2%) decreased, 2.3 % less than the previous year. Construction orders (Gyeongsang) increased from construction (27.3%), such as houses, factories and warehouses, while civil engineering (-15.0%), such as power generation and communications, increased by 15 , 8% compared to the previous year.
▲ Mutual increase in production, consumption and investment in December last year.ⓒ Yonhap News
◇ ‘Triple increase’ in production, consumption and investment in December of last year
Looking at trends from December last year, production, consumption and investment increased with the strengthening of social distancing. All industrial production was affected by Corona 19, which affected service industries such as accommodation and restaurants (-27.3%), but semiconductor exports (11.6%) were strong and mining industry production increased 0.5% compared to the previous month (November). . However, the growth rate slowed compared to the previous month (0.8%). Mining industry production increased 3.7% from the previous month, which decreased in automobiles (-8.6%) and increased in memory semiconductors such as DRAM and flash, and mechanical equipment such as wafer processing equipment ( silicon substrate) (10.0%). . Compared to the same period last year, cars (-6.6%) were slow, but semiconductors (18.6%) led the increase.
Manufacturing inventory fell 0.2% from the previous month. It decreased in automobiles (6.3%) and oil refining (8.3%), while in semiconductors (-7.9%) and electrical equipment (-3.0%). The manufacturing capacity index was 106.1, 1.5% more than the previous month. The capacity index refers to the maximum amount that a business can produce in a normal operating environment. The average utilization rate for the manufacturing industry was 74.5%, 0.6% more than the previous year. It increased for two consecutive months.
The production of services increased in finance and insurance (4.6%) thanks to the boom in the stock market, but decreased 1.1% compared to the previous month in transportation and warehouses (-3.2%) such as accommodation and restaurants, as well as rail and air passenger transport. due to the strengthening of social distancing.
The retail sales index, which shows consumer trends, was 114.3, 0.2% more than the previous year. The National Statistics Office explained that the base effect of the two consecutive months of decline in October (-1.0%) and November (-0.9%) also worked. Durable goods such as passenger cars (-1.7%) and semi-durable goods such as clothing (-6.7%) decreased. On the other hand, sales of non-durable goods such as food and beverages (3.9%) increased as the time spent in the home increased due to the reproliferation of Corona 19.
Investment in facilities increased 0.9% compared to the previous year. Investments in machinery such as special industrial machinery (0.2%) and in transport equipment such as boat imports (3.4%) increased.
Construction performance, which shows the real performance of construction by construction companies in terms of amount, increased the performance of civil engineering construction (6.2%), but construction decreased (-3.6%), 0.9% less than the previous month. Construction orders (Gyeongsang) decreased in civil works (-27.9%), but increased in construction (17.6%), 2.0% more than in the same period of the previous year.
The economic index, which had risen together for six consecutive months, slowed. The cyclical fluctuation of the accompanying index that shows the current economic situation was 98.9, the same as the previous month. The number of non-agricultural, forestry and fishing employment and the retail sales index decreased, while the service industry production index and the mining industry production index increased. The cyclical fluctuation of the leading economic index that predicts the future economic situation was 103.0, 0.5p more than the previous month. It is increasing for seven consecutive months. It is the longest consecutive increase since it increased for 9 consecutive months from November 2016 to July of the following year. It has exceeded 100 for six consecutive months since last July. The scope of the increase is also growing. Although the export / import price ratio and the inventory circulation index decreased, it was analyzed that the KOSPI and the national machinery export index increased.
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