Many Americans migrate from North to South and West … The Democratic and Republican ‘home’ has changed and has a huge impact on the market

Members of the far-right group protest in support of Trump in Phoenix, Arizona, on the 5th. [AP=뉴시스]

The 2020 United States Presidential Election is expected to remain in the history of the United States as a representative example that they did not end to the end. The US presidential elections, which took place on the first Tuesday in November after the first Monday in November, should have already ended, as established by the US Congress in 1845, but the influence of the pandemic of crown was really huge. One in two voters set a record for completing a pre-ballot by mail due to concerns about infection, but the electoral system and regulations changed significantly from state to state.

Florida, which left a place at the polls in the 2000 presidential election process, has since sought to improve its system and, despite the large population of the third-largest electoral group, this time was able to publish the results relatively quickly. In contrast, the Midwest states adhered to the old method, which was not suitable for the Crown era by prohibiting the opening and counting of votes by mail until Election Day. Thanks to this, Biden’s supporters, who once thought they were beaten by Trump, unlike the polls, are hoping for change. As such, this presidential election is also in line with American political changes.

Above all, this year’s presidential elections showed that the division between American politics and society has become more severe. The recommendations of the American Political Science Association in 1950 were that voters should choose two parties competing through different political alternatives and that a policy of accountability should be implemented. Despite the poor opinion of polarization, the clear differences between political parties and internal unity can be evaluated as an improvement in the integrity of representative democracy. However, it has been a long time since it deviated from the traditional political debate about whether it is a big government or a small government.

The problem is that when the politics of political parties turn into emotional battles rather than political competition, polarization eventually becomes a bad reality. Instead, there is a general atmosphere of harm in this country for people with different political parties. Ideologically biased media, decisively pursuing only profit, unite only citizens of the same orientation and completely ignore voters of different orientations. In fact, it appears that conservative voters avoiding poll responses seemed to have worked behind the background that the election predictions did not match.

It’s a bit early, but looking at the changes in approval ratings that have already been revealed, places that supported Trump most strongly supported Trump and those that hated Trump most strongly opposed Trump. Specifically, the so-called ‘Obama-Trump’ voters who voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and then switched to Trump in 2016 showed more terrorism this time.

In 2016, for example, Kenosha County, Wisconsin elected Trump over Hillary by just 255 votes. This time, however, he gave Trump a victory of 2,700 votes, which is almost 10 times the difference. Trump blatantly instigated polarization, and Biden’s unified message can be interpreted as a lack of empathy. It can also be evaluated that it shows that Trump’s victory in 2016 was not a coincidence. Of course, progressive voters seem to have more clearly rejected the president and Republicans, who neglect climate change and health insurance.

The signs of change were also prominent choices. In the United States, which is a huge two-party system, the gains of one party often mean the decline of the other. In my thesis, I dealt with how the Republican Party, which called for the liberation of slaves and equal citizenship, led by Lincoln, who was elected in 1860, was in favor of a bill that prohibited Chinese workers from entering the the country 20 years later in 1882. It is also famous for the anecdote that when President Johnson signed the Black Rights Act of 1964 in support of the assassinated Kennedy, Democrats left the white-centered South.

Furthermore, the Republican Party, which advocated protection trade in the late 19th century, transformed into a free trade party in the late 20th century, and the Democratic Party changed its previous position to capture guns (security) and butter (welfare). ) at the same time after the failure of the Vietnam War. Over the past four years, the Republican Party appears to have evolved into a protection trade party and an anti-immigration party, but the party switch can only be confirmed by looking at the post-Trump era.

Paradoxically, the change is being detected mainly in the south and other traditional Republican bullish regions. Just as important as the natural change in racial makeup and generational change within the state is the migratory trend of the American people. The trend for many Americans, known to move their residences on average once every five years, from North to South and West is long. Those who migrated south and west in search of warm weather and low water prices brought it with them.

Georgia, which has been electing only Republican candidates since it elected South Korean candidate Bill Clinton in 1992, has shown Park Bing’s victory this time because immigrants from the North have moved to become Democrats. Another fierce battlefield, North Carolina, falls into the same category as Democratic candidate Obama in 32 years in 2008. Arizona, which has been a Republican garden since 1996, has moved to Biden this time, but it is also due to the movement of many California people, a propensity to support the Democratic Party.

Both parties need to hear the voices of the new changes and reflections that will emerge from within. In the Democratic Party, which is struggling at the last minute with mail ballot counting, the argument against Trump is expected to no longer suffice. When the Democratic Party comes to power, Sanders-affiliated lawmakers are expected to be led by the voice of self-confidence that voters must clearly imprint on what kind of world they will do. As such, even if the moderate Biden assumes the presidency, the struggle for internal lines within the Democratic Party will be even more intense. Competition and cooperation between contenders from contending regions who hold the key to winning the election and innovations eager for bold change will have an impact on the political landscape of the United States in the future.

The situation of the Republican Party is much more complicated. Internal debates will diverge whether the 2024 presidential election will be challenged once again with a Trump-like approach focused on white supporters, or whether they will move to an increasingly important Latino voter strategy. Of course, Trump, who will turn 78 in 2024, can follow in the footsteps of the American history books. President Cleveland, who was elected in 1884, lost to Harrison in 1888 and returned to the White House after a rematch in 1892. Whether the United States can restore the fundamental principle of checks and balances is ultimately dependent on the American people, or on Trump or Biden.

Professor Jeong-Geon Seo, Department of Political Science and Diplomacy, Kyung Hee University
After graduating from the Department of Political Science at Seoul National University, he received a Ph.D. from the University of Texas at Austin in the United States Congress and Foreign Policy. Currently, he is the president of the American Politics Research Council and published “When American Politics Meets International Issues”.