Low probability of Trump reelection? 3 reasons the polls won’t fail this time

NEW YORK (Reuters) – US President Donald Trump generally responds in the same way to polls he doesn’t like, especially when national polls say he’s being pushed by Democratic candidate Joe Biden. It is ‘fake news’.

If the polls are always accurate, he thinks it will be Hillary Clinton, not himself (the 2016 Democratic presidential nominee) who is trying to get re-elected. Like Biden now, Clinton consistently dominated state and national polls during the 2016 presidential election, but it was Trump who entered the White House.

However, opinion poll experts say there are good reasons to trust current polls more than 2016.

Some of the reasons are as follows.

Current polls better reflect Trump’s support

After Trump’s surprise victory four years ago, US opinion poll experts began to rethink the poll’s methods.

Several polling companies have revised their voting techniques to better reflect the views of “whites without college degrees,” a population generally supportive of Trump, who tend to avoid responding to polls.

It is unclear why the survey participation rate among whites without college degrees is lower than that of other groups. But when reviewing survey samples, survey companies found that these people were often underrepresented.

Since whites who don’t graduate from college tend to support the Republican Party, this has emerged as a problem in existing political polls. This group also makes up a significant proportion of American voters. The Pew Research Center estimated that in 2016, 44% of voters were white or college-bound.

Several public opinion polls, including the Reuters / Ipsos poll, supplemented the poll by placing a “weight” on the element of academic training. This is to better reflect the average level of American education in the survey results.

If there are fewer responses from adults with college graduates or younger than the population size, survey companies automatically weight their responses so that their responses are adequately reflected in the results.

Chris Jackson, who is in charge of political opinion polls at polling company Ipsos, said polarization among white Americans was not always severe based on education level. But after the 2016 election, Ipsos and others have figured out how to design the poll with Trump supporters in mind.

Not all polls show Biden’s generous lead. Republican-minded polls have published findings that Trump is doing much better in national polls and in major rivals.

In 2020, the number of floating classes decreased.

During the 2016 presidential election, many Americans struggled to make decisions. Neither Trump nor Clinton were very popular candidates, and even at the end of the campaign, poll results were announced that 20% of voters who were willing to vote could not decide to support.

Even if not, it was an indispensable year for American politics, adding considerable uncertainty. Clinton’s lead, which once widened the gap in October alone, nearly disappeared just before Election Day, when voters began deciding what to support.

On the other hand, this year, voters who have not settled on a candidate for support are not much of a problem. According to the latest Reuters / Ipsos poll, only 7% of voters who wanted to vote had no candidates. Less than half of four years ago.

Political analysts say they are convinced that this year’s polls will be more accurate, as citizens seem to have a much stronger opinion (than four years ago) about who to film.

″ The (current) polls are more like the situation in 2012. An election in which the incumbent president (Obama) put his name on the ballot and more voters had already decided to support it. Said University of Virginia political analyst Kyle Condik.

“Because there are so many fewer unemployed, Biden hits more than 50% more consistently.” Condic said. “In my opinion, this is a much stronger track than Clinton’s (4 years ago). Because it shows that Biden has more than half the support. “

In the latest Reuters / Ipsos national poll, Biden got 52% of voters willing to vote and Trump got 42%. Even if all voters aren’t voting for Trump, it could be tough to beat Biden in a popular vote.

But to be elected president, you must win the race to secure the electoral body by state (not in the general vote).

State polls got more accurate

Media companies are also investing more resources in statewide polls this year, especially where the most intense races are taking place. Reuters, for example, is conducting 36 polls in six race states from Labor Day this year (Sept. 7) through Election Day next week (Nov. 3).

Taking more surveys doesn’t necessarily increase accuracy. However, this makes it easier for analysts to track long-term trends in public opinion and spot discrepancies in the survey data.

To date, Reuters / Ipsos state polls show Biden and Trump are fighting in Arizona, Florida and North Carolina, while Biden has the lead in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.

All those polls will be finalized on Election Day, when countless Americans who have not participated in early voting will head to the polls. However, this year’s vote count and announcement of winners can take days or weeks.