Kim Jong-un sublimation → appearance → provocation pattern again? Why is the shooting at the North Korean GP sinister?

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attended the Suncheon Infertilizer Plant completion ceremony on Day 1, which was Labor Day (vs. 5, 1), according to Labor News from the Labor Party agency. President Kim made a public appearance about 20 days after Lee Sang-seol’s personal opinion. [연합뉴스]

North Korea’s military provocation followed by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un appearing in public seats after his stealth. It’s hard to say that the DMZ shooting on 3 was an accident.

On October 27 of last year, President Kim Jong-un did not appear in public seats for more than two weeks after local training at the Myohyangsan Medical Equipment Factory. After that, North Korea fired a coastal cannon at the Changlin Island Defense Forces, located on the western front, on the border between the two Koreas, on the morning of November 23, under the direct direction of Kim. It was the first provocation that violated the military agreement of September 19.

North Korea State Council President Kim Jong-un inspected the Changlin-do Defense Forces located on the Western Front, Chosun Central Communications reported the photo on November 25, 2019. The shooting date was not revealed. [연합뉴스]

In addition, on December 7 and 13, two tests were conducted at the Dongchang-ri missile test site to test the engine for ICBM. The engine test site in Dongchang-ri was the place where North Korea announced it would dismantle some facilities and permanently discard them.

In 2018, in the midst of creating a peaceful atmosphere such as the Inter-Korean Summit followed by the House of Peace Summit 4.17 and the Singapore-North Korea Summit 6.12, such movements for ‘substantial public provocation’ pattern did not appear clearly .

However, this pattern was evident earlier. On July 4, 2017, after the administration of the Moon Jae-in government, President Kim disappeared from the North Korean media for 13 days before North Korea launched the “Hwaseong-14 type” missile, It was classified as an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) class missile. North Korean state media, including the Labor Newspaper, reported on June 20 that Kim was in charge of a dental hygiene factory, and it was not until the afternoon of July 4 that the missile was launched.

On May 14 of the same year, the same pattern was observed before North Korea fired a new “Mars-12” medium-range missile (IRBM). From April 27 to May 4, there was no trace of him for 8 days.

Even in 2016, when he shot Gwangmyeongseong on a long-range rocket (missile) on or before February 12 and after the fifth nuclear test on September 9, President Kim disappeared for 9 and 6 days, respectively.

The National Defense Ministry said of the incident: “Since the occurrence of the situation, daily activities have been identified to date, and the North Korean military has shown no unusual trend,” he said. “It is inappropriate for North Korea to deliberately provoke.” Authorities plan to closely observe the possibility of another pattern of military provocation after the shooting.

Jangjangpo training from North Korea. North Korea fired coastal artillery at Changlin Island near the NLL, violating the 9/19 military agreement. [조선중앙통신]

“Although shooting at DMZ is impossible without the permission of high-ranking North Koreans,” said Yang Wook, an assistant professor at Hannam University’s School of Defense Strategy, “It is dangerous to dismiss intentionality.” Professor Yang said: “In particular, the shooting near the GP in the demilitarized zone, which was withdrawn from the demonstration by the North and South Korean military authorities, can be a very political act.” “At the same time, we intend to attack North Korea while confirming North Korea’s military capabilities externally. I can see it.

A defense expert who requested anonymity also said in a call to JoongAng Ilbo: “It means that we should not rule out ‘intent’ or ‘planning’ in the sense that we shot at the GP in the absence of a significant confrontation after the deal. military”. “It is difficult to see it as a big problem because there were no victims, but Kim Jong-un needs to be closely watched for the trend (for more military provocations) in a noisy situation due to the theory of death,” he advised.

By Kim Da-young, reporter [email protected]