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After Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that he would resign due to health problems at the end of last month, the Japanese government is in a hurry. The process for the election of the next prime minister is proceeding at a very high speed. However, even if the ‘face’ of Japan is changed, it seems that there is not much difference in content.
On September 1, the Liberal Democratic Party held a general meeting and confirmed the method and timing of the election of the Prime Minister. The new governor was elected by vote on the 14th. On the 16th it was decided to hold an extraordinary National Assembly to elect the prime minister. The method of electing the new governor established by the party leadership was somewhat controversial. Young lawmakers, including Shinjiro Koizumi, who is popular with young people, insisted that the vote of a party member should be voted on, but the party leadership decided to elect a new governor only at the general meetings of the Middle Council members. and high. In formal voting, the number of members and the number of party members are selected equally, but this time, since this is a summary election, only 141 members representing each region are entitled to vote for 394 members, excluding to the president of the Chamber of Councilors and the Center. If you hold on to legislators, you can become prime minister.
Method of choice in favor of Suga
It has no choice but to be to the advantage of Secretary of State Yoshihide Suga, who has a high level of control over the party. Suga is known to have already secured 5 of the 8 factions, including the larger Hosodapa faction, and more than 70% of the legislators. Former Secretary Shigeru Ishiba (石破茂) takes on the fourth challenge to the party, but ‘popular opinion’ is changing the flow of public opinion. So far, Ishiba has always been number one in the poll asking the next prime minister’s preference, but in Yomiuri Shimbun’s poll from 4 to 6, Suga pushed Ishiba (33%) to 46%. Ishiba Sugawa and President Fumio Kishida called for the governor’s elections and entered the official elections on the 8th, but the results were decided.
The factional structure dates back to the beginning of the Japanese “1955 regime” centered on the one-party rule of the PLD. At that time, Shigeru Yoshida’s Liberal Party and Ichiro Hatoyama’s Japanese Democratic Party merged to form the Liberal Democratic Party, a large political party. The beginning of the faction was that the Liberal Party became a “conservative mainstream” and the Democratic Party became a “conservative discharge.” Currently, the largest of the eight factions is the attractive 98 legislators. When Nobusuke Kishi (岸 信 介), who was imprisoned as a war criminal, was released, the politicians he had gathered became the birthplace. Takeo Fukuda, who later became Prime Minister, officially launched this faction in 1962 under the name Seiwa Policy Research Association. After Fukuda, the president was Abe’s father, Shintaro Abe.
After Hosoda pas, the Shikokai (志 公會, Asopa) 56 people, the Peace Research Society (Takeshitapa) 54, Kochikai (Kishidapa) and Shisuikai (Nikaipa) 47 each People are in order. Asopa’s boss is Deputy Prime Minister Taro Aso, famous for producing manganese. Currently, Asopa is in charge of both the House of Representatives and the Speaker of the House of Representatives. Takeshitapa was created by former Prime Minister Noboru Takeshita, and is now run by his younger brother, Wataru Takeshita. As you can see from the name where the line is mentioned, faction politics is also related to family laws and hereditary politics.
If Suga becomes prime minister, he becomes a rare “factionless, not hereditary” prime minister. For the past 30 years, the PLD governor has been in charge of two or three years of legislators. Thanks to the persistent faction structure, he paved the way to the prime minister, but he does not belong to a specific faction. It is similar to how Abe led a faction alliance called ‘Generation Japan’ instead of becoming the leader of a particular faction.
According to the Jiji news agency, Suga once belonged to the Takeshita and Kishida groups, but has stayed out of the parties since he left in 2009. On the other hand, Kishida leads the Kishida faction with 47 members, and Ishiba has had 18 members under the Suigetsukai name since 2012. However, the reason Suga gained so much support was because he maintained a good reputation through frequent contact with various groups of intermediate and emerging legislators, including non-partisan legislators. Although it is not an official faction, around 30 legislators can be seen as a de facto ‘Sugapa’.
“Earth Spoon” from the Tohoku region
There is another clear difference between Suga and the main PLD politicians. It is the ‘oil spoon’ of the political world. Abe is the only grandson of former Prime Minister Kishi. Kishi’s younger brother and Abe’s foreign grandfather, Sato Eisaku, also served as prime minister. Abe’s father was a legislator. Abe and all the LDP presidents after Prime Minister Miyazawa Kiichi, who came to power in 1991, were such hereditary politicians. Ishiba’s father, who competed with Suga, served as a legislator and cabinet member, and Ishiba entered politics on the recommendation of his father’s friend, former Prime Minister Tanaka Kakuei. Kishida’s grandfather and father were both legislators, and Kishida has a close relationship with former Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa and Yoichi Miyazawa, an economic and industrial merchant.
Born into a poor farming family, Suga started out as a member of the House of Representatives, went to the Yokohama City Council, and entered the House of Representatives at the age of 48 in 1996. Also, his hometown is Akita Prefecture. He is from the Tohoku region, which has historically been ignored and rejected. Until now, the prime minister of Tohoku has none other than Suzuki Zenko from the early 80s (鈴木 善 幸).
Suga’s election may be significant in this regard, but there is no clear observation of the changes he will lead after becoming prime minister. Suga has reigned as the second leader and shared his political destiny since Abe was first elected secretary in 2006. After Abe’s second reign in late 2012, he served as a government spokesman for 7 years and 8 months. At a press conference to be held on the 2nd, he said: “I will certainly succeed the Abe regime.” It is unlikely to bring about a major change in domestic politics or relations between Korea and Japan.
But the key is ‘how overwhelmingly do you win?’ If Suga is elected with overwhelming support, the House of Representatives could be dissolved and the general election scheduled for October next year could be brought forward. If he leads to victory by holding early general elections this year or early next, he may try to build his own leadership rather than remain a “transitional prime minister” who fills Abe’s remaining term. But this doesn’t seem easy either. The Mainichi Shimbun reported that there are already signs of factional conflict as Suga Camp moderated the Nikaists. Since he was Abe’s assistant, the corruption allegations surrounding Abe can come back to him like a boomerang.
