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Simultaneous increase in the main industrial activity indicators 3 months after June
Recovery of exports focused on automobiles and semiconductors Increase in retail sales
The National Statistical Office announced the ‘Industrial Activity Trend for September’ on the 30th. The entire industry index rises
Despite the reappearance of the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19), national production, consumption and investment increased last month. Three months have passed since June that the main indicators of industrial activity have increased simultaneously.
Although the production of service industries such as food and lodging continued to decline due to the reinforcement of social distancing due to the reproliferation of Corona 19, exports of automobiles and semiconductors continued to recover, and it was analyzed that the increase in retail sales after the holiday of Chuseok had a positive effect.
According to the ‘Industrial Activity Trend for September’ published by the National Statistics Office on the 30th, last month’s total industrial production index (excluding seasonal adjustments and agriculture, forestry and fisheries) increased by 2, 3% compared to the previous month. Production in all industries showed negative (-) since January when Corona 19 occurred, and then increased for two consecutive months since last June (4.1%). It fell again in August (-0.8%) and last month it adopted an upward trend.
Bureau of Statistics Economic Trends Statistics Reviewer Ahn Hyeong-joon said: “The impact of the Corona 19 reproliferation was focused on the service industry, but the main general indicators increased as exports increased significantly. and retail sales also increased. ” There seems to have been a lot of consumption of Chuseok gifts while he refrained from moving to, ”he explained.
The production of the mining industry increased 5.4% compared to the previous month. This is the largest increase since last June (7.1%). Due to the impact of new car launches and exports to North America, car production increased 13.3%, boosting production in the mining industry. Semiconductors also increased 4.8% due to higher production of memory semiconductors such as DRAM and flash memory.
Manufacturing production decreased in oil refining and video and audio equipment, but increased 5.9% compared to the previous month due to the increase in automobiles and semiconductors. The average utilization rate of the manufacturing industry, which means production performance versus production capacity, was 73.9%, 4.2 percentage points (p) more than the previous month. It is the highest in six months since last March (74.4%).
The number of shipments in the manufacturing industry was 105.1 (2015 = 100), 7.5% more than the previous month. Manufacturing inventories increased in automobiles (4.0%) and machinery equipment (1.7%), but semiconductors (-7.7%) and chemical products (-4.7%) decreased 2.5% from the previous month. This is the largest decrease in 1 year and 8 months since January 2019 (-2.7%).
The manufacturing / shipping stock ratio was 108.8%, 11.0% p compared to the previous month. It showed the lowest level in 9 months since last December (105.4%). The manufacturing capacity index was 104.6, the highest since the statistics were compiled in 1971. However, the same figure was recorded in November. The National Bureau of Statistics explained that as the Korean economy expands, the manufacturing production index continues to rise.
Production in the service industry increased 0.3% compared to the previous month. Wholesale and retail prices increased 4.0% due to the increase in wholesale sales of food and beverages, general and out-of-store retailers, and transportation and warehouses also increased 2.7% due to an increase in freight transportation, warehouses and services related to transportation. On the other hand, the decrease was notable in the industries of face-to-face services such as accommodation and restaurants (-7.7%), education (-1.8%) and arts, sports and leisure (-1.9%).
Retail sales, which show consumer trends, increased 1.7%, continuing to increase for the second month in a row. This is due to a 3.1% increase in non-durable goods such as food and beverages due to the increase in demand for food delivery due to the reinforcement of social distancing and the intensive purchase of Christmas gift sets. In addition, since clothing sales increased due to weather effects, such as the base effect of the previous month and the change of season, semi-durable goods also increased by 1.5%. Durable goods (-0.7%) such as passenger cars contracted.
By type of business, the number of supermarkets (13.9%), supermarkets and general stores (9.8%), specialized retailers (2.0%) and department stores (1.6%) increased, but tax-free (-2.1%), out-of-store retail sale (-2.1%), They decreased in fuel retail stores (-1.3%) and convenience stores (-0.8%).
Investment in facilities increased 7.4% compared to the previous month, showing an upward trend after 3 months. Investment in machinery (-1.5%) decreased due to imports of machinery for the manufacture of semiconductors, but this is due to an increase in investment in transport equipment (34.3%) such as ships. This is the largest increase in six months since last March (7.5%).
In terms of construction achievements already achieved, construction performance of construction (7.0%) and civil engineering (5.0%) increased, jumping 6.4% from the previous month. This is the largest increase in nine months since last December (6.5%). Construction orders (Gyeongsang) decreased in civil engineering (-53.8%), such as railways and roads, but increased in construction (42.7%) such as houses, 2.0% more than a year ago.
The cyclical fluctuation of the coincident index, which shows the current economic situation, was 97.9, 0.3p more than the previous month. The cyclical fluctuation of the leading index predicting the future economy was 101.3, 0.4p more than the previous month. Leading index and leading index cyclical fluctuations increase for 4 consecutive months. This is the first time since the simultaneous four-month increase from October 2005 to January 2006.
MP Ahn said: “If you look at the cyclical fluctuations in the leading index, you can expect an economic improvement in the future.” He added: “There will be mixed uncertainties in the future due to negative factors such as the reproliferation of Corona 19, the economic blockade and the trade conflict between the United States and China.”
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