“I will not be extorted by threats from USFK The Korea-United States alliance in the Biden era

Joe Biden, Democratic President-elect of the United States. [로이터=연합뉴스]

As Joe Biden is confirmed to be elected as the new US president, there is a growing expectation that the twisted problems between Korea and the US President Donald Trump put pressure on South Korea by upholding the priority of states. United. He tried to obtain a large part of the defense spending and, whenever he had the opportunity, called for the withdrawal of American forces in Korea.

On the other hand, Biden-elect emphasized ‘Alliance first’. He said at the City University of New York last July that “America’s security, prosperity, and everyday life are possible when America is closely linked with allies and friends.” Consequently, Biden is expected to have a tendency to resolve the tedious problem between the two countries through dialogue and compromise.

Biden-elect is unlikely to bring about a drastic change in the USFK, which maintains the level of 28,500 people, mainly ground forces.

Biden said in a contribution to Yonhap News on the 29th of last month (local time) in his article ‘Hope for a better future’, “To protect peace in East Asia and beyond, instead of extorting Korea with threats reckless to withdraw our troops. We will support Korea as we strengthen our alliance for her sake. ”

In December 2013, President-elect Joe Biden, then Vice President of the United States (second from right in the front row), visited the Olet Post (GP) near Panmunjom, South Korea, and the platoon commander of the Guard of the Joint Security Area (JSA) informs it. [사진공동취재단]

This is a criticism of President Trump, who ordered the withdrawal of American troops in Korea, saying that the United States is not a ‘ho-gu’ and then garnered opposition from the surrounding people. Professor Kim Hyun-wook of the National Academy of Foreign Affairs predicted that “Biden will try to abolish the Trump administration’s plan to reduce and withdraw US troops in Korea, as he has clearly stated.”

However, there is a view that a “fine-tuning” is possible because the US Department of Defense is reviewing the relocation of troops around the world, including US forces in Korea.

Park Won-gon, professor of international area studies at Handong University, said: “The consensus within the Pentagon (the US Department of Defense) is important to the USFK issue. The US Department of Defense The US is planning to reduce or deploy troops abroad as much as possible to effectively control China and Russia. I’m looking for. “Biden-elect will also follow the Pentagon’s opinion.”

Nam-hoon Cho, a senior fellow at the Korea Defense Research Institute, who served as a policy advisor to the Minister of National Defense, said: “Biden will not attempt to withdraw US forces in Korea.”

Joe Biden, who visited Korea in December 2013 as Vice President of the United States, meets President Park Geun-hye at the Blue House, shakes hands tightly to greet them, and heads to the guestbook desk. . [청와대사진기자단]

Diplomatic and security experts are of the opinion that Biden is expected to be passive in converting the right to control exhibitions (opposition) to Korea.

Shin Beom-cheol, director of the Korea Institute of Strategic Affairs, director of the Center for Foreign Affairs and Security, said: “It is unlikely that you would agree with the early transition in a situation where verification of the ROK Army’s ability to convert OPCON. ” It was a problem because the combined ROK and US commander was negative about the transition to OPCON. ”

Professor Won-gon Park said: “US reserve generals like former Combined Commander Burwell Bell do not belong to Biden’s side, but they have significant influence.” This opinion will be passed on to Biden-elect. ”

Professor Jeon Jae-sung from the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Seoul National University said: “Biden will fully understand the position of the Moon Jae-in administration to change the opposition within the term.” “If North Korea’s nuclear negotiations are delayed and military tensions rise on the Korean peninsula, you may think differently about the OPCON transition.” “I pointed.

Lead researcher Cho Nam-hoon said, “We will first try to find out what role Korea can play in responding to China’s expansion of power in the United States,” he said. “Consequently, the timing of the OPCON transition can be determined.”

Professor Jeong Han-beom of the Defense University also said, “President Biden is expected to determine the timing of the transition of the opposition through negotiations with the Korean government. Eventually, the timing of the transition of the The opposition will also be tied according to the level of participation in the control of the United States against China. did.

President Lee Myung-bak, who is visiting Washington, USA to attend the 2010 Nuclear Security Summit, is interviewing then-US Vice President Biden (right) at the White House. [공동취재단]

The United States seeks to deploy an additional high altitude missile defense system (THAAD) in Korea or to deploy medium-range ballistic missiles on the Korean peninsula. How will Biden-elect come out?

Professor Jeon Jae-seong predicted: “The deployment of THAAD started with the Obama administration, the former regime of the Democratic Party, and we will judge that it is necessary to proceed from a military perspective.”

Professor Jeong Han-beom said: “The elected Biden will promote the performance enhancement of THAAD or additional deployment to protect US forces in Korea. However, I will take a careful approach in observing public opinion in Korea. ”

Professor Shin Seong-ho from the Graduate School of International Studies at Seoul National University said, “When Biden takes office, he will have to pay attention to the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) and the economy immediately, for so there won’t be time to pay attention to diplomatic and security issues right away. ” Even if we look at diplomacy and security, China, Europe and Russia are urgent matters for the United States, and Korea and the Korean peninsula will have many priorities. ” Furthermore, he suggested: “When there is enough time like this, Korea should act actively.”

Reporters Cheoljae Lee and Yonghan Park [email protected]