I asked six experts … What is the impact of running for Ahn Cheol-soo?



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Ahn Chul-soo, president of the National Congress. News 1

The ‘point of view’ that the bullfight declared was exquisite. There is still a question mark about “character competitiveness”. The middle brand is the advantage, but the novelty is not the same as before. This is the story of Ahn Cheol-soo, representative of the National Assembly Party, who declared that he could run for the by-elections of the mayor of Seoul on the 20th.

We asked six experts in the field of politics and elections about the destructive power of Ahn Cheol-soo, chairman of the National Assembly Party, who said he will become a sole candidate for the conservative opposition.

‘Number of wins’ targeted at the height of the passport verification audience

Representative Ahn clearly chose when to declare a run. The favorable response from Representative Ahn pointed to the timing of the increased mood of Moon Jae-in government controls due to unattainable house prices, the re-emergence of a new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) and the controversy over the murder of Attorney General Yoon Seok-yeol. On the 20th, Han-ul Jung, a survey expert at Korea Research, said: “In a situation where no one in the opposition party could accept the growing audience for passport verification, Ahn released the number of matches for become the representative of the opposition. ” Bae Jong-chan, director of the Insight K Research Institute, said: “With President Ahn’s declaration to run, public interest in the opposition has increased, and the Democratic Party has also become a situation where the results elections are not safe. “

However, the assessment of whether President Ahn has the ability to scale due to passport verification is mixed. Professor Lee Jun-han from Incheon National University’s Department of Political Science and Diplomacy said: “Executive Director Ahn is not a symbol of new politics or a next-generation leader who is respected by the powers of the the opposition”. Expert Committee member Jeong Han-ul also said, “If Representative Ahn’s base of support is strong, he would have gone straight to the presidency, why would he be in the Seoul mayor’s election?”

Moderate scalability is competitive … Question mark for ‘conformability and novelty’

However, the scalability of Candidate Ahn, which has established itself as a “hub,” is not negligible. Director Bae Jong-chan said, “CEO Ahn has great traction for the middle class.” “As an anti-moon cyclist (jaein), Seoul’s mayoral candidate is Representative Ahn, and the presidential candidate is Attorney General Yoon Seok-yeol.” It is significant. “Shinyul, a professor in the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Myongji University, also assessed that” people who had difficulty supporting people’s power (due to their rejection of conservatives) had the opportunity to think: ‘Let’s give the opposition a vote once.’

Seoul has a relatively light regional color and there are many middle-class voters. It is a good place for candidate Ahn to show his potential. According to the results of a poll conducted by Gallup Korea in the first week of this month, in the upcoming presidential candidate preference poll, Ahn’s national approval rate remained at 4%, but the approval rate of citizens of Seoul (8%) doubled. Hyung Hyung Hyung, head of Hangil Research, said: “A competitive candidate who will shake up the solo structure of former lawmaker Na Kyung-won appears in opposition.”

“Being a single candidate for the opposition is the biggest challenge”

Representative Ahn’s competitiveness is mainly for the “main line”. The problem is that the power of the people cannot give him a candidate for mayor of Seoul. Professor Lee Jun-han said: “If Representative Ahn is in the power of the people and competes in the party candidate, it is not easy to win because there is no organizational base in the party.” Professor Lee said: “If national opposition elections that exclude members of the power of the people are excluded, the odds of Representative Ahn will increase, but it will be difficult to support the power of the people to become the ‘first opposition party to neither He can even run for mayor of Seoul. ‘ It seemed dark.

There are many prospects that if the door to unification of the opposition candidates is somehow opened, it will be a game worth playing for Ahn. Park Seong-min, executive director of ‘Min Political Consulting’, said: “For the conservative opposition to win, the Seoul mayor’s by-election must be an election in which the ruling party is held accountable. Former lawmaker Na Gyeong- won is a personal problem, and Oh Se-hoon, the former mayor of Seoul, resigns, saying, “Ahn is more likely to be responsible for the responsibility of Moon Jae-in’s government than they are.

Seongtaek Lee reporter

Park jinman reporter

Seohee Lee reporter

Hong In-taek reporter

You can also watch the Naver Et news edited by Hankook Ilbo.
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