Focusing on Labor-Level Negotiations, US Priority The ‘North American Clock’ Slows Slower

Changes in North Korea’s nuclear solutions Ona

Denuclearization negotiations need time
At the moment of provocation to suppress the steamboat
The deadlock could be prolonged
Creating conditions, important role in Korea

The victory of Democratic candidate Joe Biden in the presidential election is expected to significantly change America’s approach to the North Korean nuclear issue. The main goals of the United States are likely to be “substantial progress” and “reduction of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities” based on principles rather than showing friendship between leaders and top-down methods.

The prospect of North Korean nuclear negotiations in the Biden era is not so bright. It’s not just because Donald Trump failed and Biden became president. This is because North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities are so advanced that the negotiation itself is not easy.

It would have been the same if Trump had been re-elected. Indeed, after the second North Korea-U.S. Summit in Hanoi collapsed without a deal in February 2019, the Trump administration’s approach to North Korea has already shifted toward working-level negotiations. That is why North Korea’s nuclear issue has not progressed since the Hanoi No Deal. Furthermore, the North Korean nuclear issue is not a priority in the Biden administration’s foreign policy. The stalemate between North Korea and the United States could continue for quite some time.

■ Change in trading method

Biden said at the presidential candidate debate: “I am willing to meet if Kim Jong-un agrees to reduce his nuclear capabilities for the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.” Earlier, in a media interview, he said that he would meet with President Kim Jong-un with a strategy to move toward denuclearization rather than a presentation-style event like Trump. He stressed that the negotiating team at the working level must have a lot of power and emphasized that a coordinated strategy should be pursued with China and allies for denuclearization. North Korea’s human rights issue was hotly debated in the Democratic Party’s political policy, which was unveiled before the presidential elections.

Through this, it is possible to guess Biden’s perception of North Korea and the direction of the US negotiations. It is very likely that it will give bargaining power to professional and experienced staff at the job level and give priority to practical progress on denuclearization. This is because there is a possibility that the summit between North Korea and the United States will not be easy in the Biden era. Korea’s role can be increased because it points to a strategy toward North Korea that is consistent with its allies. Regarding the North Korean nuclear issue, cooperation with China can also be sought, and the North Korean human rights issue is expected to be an important factor.

■ A sophisticated denuclearization strategy is needed

Time is needed to resume dialogue with the United States. In the United States, it is urgent to deal with the aftermath of the presidential elections at the national level, such as responding to Corona 19 and the social division caused by racial and class conflicts. The Biden administration is expected to review North Korean policy and complete preparations, such as preparing a negotiating team, after the first half of next year.

The key to resuming negotiations is how North Korea, which wanted Trump’s re-election, will show its attitude toward the Biden administration. There is also the possibility of a provocative action that surpasses the baseline. For this reason, tensions between North Korea and the United States may rise in the initial stage or it may be difficult to find a point of contact for dialogue.

At this point, Korea’s role is important. It is noted that it is necessary to abandon the impatience to resume the dialogue early and focus on creating conditions for dialogue while managing the tension. It is important that Korea devise a detailed strategy, as the Biden administration seems to prefer to find a solution to the North Korean nuclear program within the framework of the alliance.

In particular, despite the opposition of American experts and bureaucrats, if only President Trump persuades President Trump, a different phase will unfold than in the past when it was possible to lead the US in the desired direction, by what policy coordination with the US should be cautious.