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On the 15th, the government released the Ninth Basic Power Supply and Demand Plan, which contains the exclusion of the Shinhanul 3 and 4 nuclear power plants from the source of energy supply. Construction of Shin Hanul Units 3 and 4 has been suspended indefinitely due to the Moon Jae-in government, and the permit will expire in February next year. It is assessed that the government has confirmed its position that it will go through the total cancellation procedure without granting a new permit.
The basic power supply and demand plan is a 15-year administrative plan established by the government every two years to stabilize power supply and demand in accordance with the Electricity Business Law. The Ninth Basic Electric Supply and Demand Plan covers the energy supply and demand plans from 2020 to 2034.
According to this, the number of nuclear power plants increased from 25 units (23.3 GW) this year to 26 units in 2024 and decreased to 17 units (19.4 GW) in 2034. Shinhan-ul units 3 and 4 are excluded from power supply and are in the process of going blank. Coal-fired power generation will decrease from 56 units (35.8GW) this year to 37 units (29.0GW) in 2034.
Instead, the government decided to significantly increase the capacity for generating renewable energy, such as solar and wind power, from the current 20.1 GW to 42.7 GW in 2025 and 77.8 GW in 2034. Additional facilities are planned to be built of solar and wind power generation near the Seoul area. The liquefied natural gas (LNG) power plant will also grow from 41.3GW this year to 59.1GW in 2034.
The government will hold a public hearing on the 24th to gather expert opinions on the ninth plan. However, it is highly likely that the government draft will be finalized immediately after the public hearing.
They say they are carbon neutral … A government that moved away from nuclear energy
Analyzing the ninth electricity supply and demand plan
The government announced its intention to build a new liquefied natural gas (LNG) power plant and continue the nuclear power plant through the ‘ninth power supply and demand plan’ announced on the 15th. However, the generation of LNG energy emits more carbon dioxide (greenhouse gas) than nuclear power generation. According to the ‘Intergovernmental Council on Climate Change’ (IPCC), 370 tons of greenhouse gases are produced for every 1GWh of electricity generated from LNG. It’s better than coal-fired power (760t), but it can’t even be compared to nuclear power, which has almost zero carbon emissions. This is why the government’s 2050 long-term low-carbon power generation strategy (LEDS), which was approved by the state council on the same day, and the ninth power supply and demand plan are contradictory.
Keep increasing solar energy
The government announced that it would more than double the speed of solar power supply through the ninth power supply plan in line with the ‘Green New Deal’ policy. The plan is to build new 22.6 GW solar and wind power by 2025, exceeding the current total capacity of renewable energy facilities (20.1 GW). It is 12.8 GW higher than the previous goal (29.9 GW).
Consequently, it is estimated that the cost of building solar power for the next four years alone will reach 24 trillion won. In terms of newly installed sunlight area, it is 225.25㎢, which is 11.5 times that of Bunneun City (19.6㎢). Applying the area formula of the Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy (14,876m2 per 1000kW), taking into account the share of solar energy (67%), the construction cost (1.65 million won per 1000 kW) and the distance between transmission and distribution facilities and panels in renewable energy last year. This is the result of the calculation.
The nuclear power plant decided to gradually reduce the proportion by prohibiting new construction and the extension of life as previously planned for nuclear power plants. In addition to the 10 units previously decided to eliminate, the coal power plants will be closed and 20 units will be closed, and the power generation capacity at the operating power plant will be limited. To support the resulting reduction in energy supply, it was decided to convert 24 of the 30 coal wastes to LNG and build a new 1GW equivalent LNG power plant.
Consequently, the proportion of solar and wind power generation from 6.5% last year will increase to 20.8% in 2030. During the same period, the share of coal decreased by more than 10 percentage points, from 40.4 % to 29.9%. Liquefied natural gas will decrease from 25.6% to 23.3% and nuclear energy will decrease from 25.9% to 25.0%.
“Electricity bills will go up and carbon neutrality will move away”
If the share of solar and wind power increases significantly according to the government plan, an increase in electricity rates is expected to be inevitable. The cost of producing solar and wind power is estimated to exceed 99.98 won per ㎾h last year and 120 won when subsidies are combined. The share of nuclear power plants (58.31 won per ㎾h), which has a production cost of about half, must be reduced, and the resources to replace them with expensive power generation sources must be secured by increasing electricity rates.
As the government decided to significantly increase its LNG power generation facilities, it is assessed that the achievement of the ‘2050 carbon neutral’ target has also gone further. Professor Jeong Bum-jin from Kyunghee University’s Department of Nuclear Engineering noted: “Even if coal power is replaced with LNG power, carbon dioxide is reduced only slightly and the price is 1.5 times “. He noted: “When I tried to achieve the carbon neutral goal by excluding nuclear power from the beginning, an unrealistic plan emerged.” .
There are also criticisms that the government’s plan did not adequately reflect the increased demand for electricity due to the expansion in the supply of electric vehicles and hydrogen. The government predicts that the annual average energy demand growth rate will be only 1.0% from 2020 to 2034. Professor Joo Han-gyu from the Department of Nuclear Engineering at Seoul National University said: “The ninth plan Basic for energy supply and demand is countering the trend of advanced countries to increase investment in nuclear power plants for hydrogen production Based on IEA Production cost is 1.7 ~ 2.6 USD per kilogram, which is much cheaper than solar and offshore wind energy, which is around $ 9 ”.
Reporter Seong Soo-young [email protected]
