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The government has prepared countermeasures such as the formation of a Task Force (TF), as the results of the US presidential elections could greatly shake the diplomatic landscape of the Korean peninsula. If US President Donald Trump is re-elected, there is a high possibility that the ROK-US alliance will face another hurdle, while the possibility of resuming denuclearization talks between North leaders and the United States will survive. When Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden is elected, the chance of stabilizing US-ROK relations is high, as a breakthrough in negotiations for the Republic’s defense cost sharing. from Korea and the US, but there are many prospects that it is difficult to expect a surprise summit between North Korea and the US.
On the 3rd, a diplomatic official said: “We have held several TF meetings to prepare for various scenarios following the results of the US presidential elections.” Since August, the Foreign Ministry has organized a 25-person TF, focused on the North American and North Korean Nuclear Diplomacy Planning Team, and analyzed the impact of the US presidential elections. The administration plans to prepare ahead of time for the celebrations to be held when candidate Biden is elected, but if President Trump is re-elected, communication will resume immediately through existing diplomatic channels.
Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha is scheduled to visit the United States on the 8th and 10th to meet with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. Regardless of the election results, discussions are expected to come and go about ways to curb North Korean provocations that may occur during the administration’s transition period. Unification Minister Lee In-young is also known to be considering a plan to visit the United States next month.
When Biden is elected, he will most likely adopt a “bottom-up” approach that creates a denuclearization plan through practical negotiations rather than Trump’s unique “top-down” denuclearization negotiations. For this reason, the government’s policy toward North Korea, which was based on Trump’s spontaneous decision on North Korea’s policy, seems inevitable. Experts predicted that when the Biden administration is launched, the summit between North Korea and the United States will only be possible when the United States has a clear vision of denuclearization based on close working-level negotiations with North Korea. On the other hand, if President Trump succeeds in re-election, the government’s strategy toward North Korea to overcome the impasse between North Korea and the United States is expected to be in full swing by taking advantage of the Tokyo Olympics to be held on next year. White House National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien also publicly revealed this possibility after Seo Hoon, head of the Blue House Office of National Security, visited the United States last month, and is expected to The Trump administration strengthens the government’s policy of seeking a peaceful environment through sporting events. There are many observations that the biden administration, which has a strong emphasis on alliance, will resolve the defense cost-sharing negotiations, a major conflict between the US and the ROK, relatively soon. The size of the USFK, the reduction or withdrawal of which has been publicly debated by President Trump, is also likely to remain stable. On the other hand, as the firm stance against China continues, pressure to join the ‘public scrutiny’ against Korea will continue, and in this process, the US demand for trilateral US-US cooperation is expected to increase. .
However, the dominant perspective is that the launch of Trump’s second plane will lead to high intensity pressure to exact alliance costs from South Korea through defense cost-sharing negotiations, destabilizing relations between states. States and Korea. There is also the possibility that the reduction of US troops in Korea will become a reality within President Trump’s tenure as a staff who will persuade President Trump to emphasize the importance of the demise of the alliance between the ROK and the States. United.
Kijae Han [email protected], Reporter Kwon Ohhyuk
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