Crown indicator with no corner to alleviate … It seems difficult to move for the distance

Entry 2020.09.11 10:46 | Revision 2020.09.11 10:58

The number of new patients, the rate of route of infection unclear as it is
Still ‘red light’, as the proportion of patients treated in the quarantine network
A total of 52 cases of group infection in Korea as of 9

With the end of stage 2.5 of social distancing in the metropolitan area (on day 13), related indicators such as the number of new patients with coronavirus infection, the proportion of unclear infection routes, and the proportion of patients treated in the quarantine network are still ‘red light’. Assuming this trend will continue for the time being, the outlook is that it will be difficult to narrow the distance from step 2.5 to step 2 today.

According to the Central Defense Countermeasures Headquarters on the 11th, the number of new confirmed cases of coronavirus on this day was 176, an increase of 21 from the previous day. On the 27th of last month, 441 people occurred per day, but from the 4th, a week ago, it decreased to 196, and during the following five days, it decreased from 168 to 167 to 136. However, as of the 9th, It rises again from 156 to 155 to 176 in three days.

On the 30th of last month, the number of patients in the metropolitan area after applying 2.5 steps to distance the metropolitan area was 78 on the 7th, registering two digits in 24 days, 98 on the 8th, 99 on the 9th and 98 on the 10th there were less than 100 people and this day it went up to triple digits.

The stage of social distancing is determined by taking into account the average number of patients per day for two weeks, the proportion of unclear infection routes, and the proportion of patients treated in the quarantine network (the proportion of confirmed patients among self-help) . Likewise, in the case of the last three stages, the socioeconomic costs are also determined. The reason why stage 2.5 of the metropolitan area was decided on the 30th of last month was because the socio-economic impact was significant if stage 3 was applied, which was close to the blockade.

To lower stage 2.5, which is scheduled to end on the 13th, to stage 2, it is necessary to satisfy the indicator that meets the conditions of stage 2, but the current situation is a situation in which not everyone is relieved. In particular, after the number of new patients fell to the middle of the 100 range, it has not decreased further, but is increasing. Level 2 criteria is less than 100 people per day and the requirements are not currently met.

In addition, the proportion of patients under investigation with unknown routes of infection reached 22.9% during two weeks from the 28 of last month to the 10 of last month. This means that 23 out of 100 new patients still do not know when and where they contracted the coronavirus. There is great concern that there may be a greater number of hidden infected people working in the community than these.

Group infections do not decrease in number either. As of the 9th, a total of 52 cases of group infections in Korea doubled from 23 cases in early August. Patients related to the Sarangjeil church in Seongbuk-gu, Seoul, the most representative group of infection during this period, did not appear for two days in a row, but 4 to 5 group infections were added until the day before. Furthermore, the number of confirmed cases is increasing, focusing on the recent Severance Hospital in Seoul, gatherings in the mountains in the metropolitan area, traditional markets in Gwangju, and health food presentations in Daejeon.

The number of severe and severe corona patients (critically ill) and deaths is also increasing rapidly. On this day alone, 15 patients were admitted in critical condition and four more died. The day before, 96.8% of those who died had an underlying disease, all in their 50s or older. The mortality rate reaches 20% among people over 80 years of age.

The government will inevitably have a long time before deciding whether to extend stage 2.5. In particular, it is possible to give a bad signal to the public if we make a downward adjustment of the distancing level while all kinds of indicators are still not good. This can lead to a relaxation of the quarantine.

Prime Minister Jeong Sye-gyun told a meeting of the Disaster and Security Countermeasures Headquarters that day: “Despite the great distance, the number of confirmed patients has not rarely dropped below 100 people a day since last Thursday “. “I have a lot of worries over the weekend.”

Prime Minister Jung said: “I will examine the situation for a little more a day or two and listen to the opinions of the experts to determine the direction of future quarantine measures.”

However, one of the recent indicators related to the quarantine is giving a positive signal. This is the point at which the “ Infection Reproduction Index (R0) ”, a numerical value indicating how many patients each patient transmitted corona, dropped below 1. If the R0 value is 1 or more, it means that a patient has transmitted the crown to more than one. If it rises above 2, the number of confirmed cases increases exponentially. At the end of August, when more than 400 confirmed cases came out per day, the R0 value is known to be approaching 2.

That has recently dropped to less than 1. The rate of spread can be interpreted to have slowed down even if the confirmed trend has not significantly slowed down. Joon-wook Kwon, deputy head of the Defense Countermeasures Headquarters (National Institute for Health Research), said the day before: “At first, it was less than 1 nationwide and in the metropolitan area,” he said. I’m doing.”