Corona spreads through ‘sporadic infection’ rather than ‘weed’ … “There could be 1,000 confirmed cases a day”

Entry 2020.11.19 15:47

As the coronavirus infection spread across the country, the number of new confirmed cases surpassed 300 for two consecutive days. Previously, ‘infection centers’ were specified, such as clubfoot group and distribution center group infections, but recently, ‘n-th sporadic infections’ have occurred in several locations, and quarantine authorities are increasing numbers. worries.

According to the Central Defense Countermeasures Headquarters on the 19th, at 0 o’clock on the day, the number of new confirmed cases of coronavirus increased by 30 from the day before to 343. For two days in a row, the figure of 300 people is the first since the end of August, when the second epidemic centered in the metropolitan area was in full swing. Therefore, the analysis that the ‘third epidemic’ has been in full swing is gaining momentum.

Park Neung-hoo, the first deputy chief of the Central Headquarters for Disasters and Security Countermeasures, said in a briefing for the day: “The number of confirmed patients in metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas is increasing rapidly and is at a crossroads of massive reproliferation. ” I can see the appearance that seems to have returned to him, ”he worried.

Recently, the coronavirus is simultaneously spreading throughout the country, regardless of metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, with group infections linked to everyday spaces such as acquaintances, workplaces, sports facilities and saunas. As of this day, the government has improved the social distancing step in all areas of Seoul, Gyeonggi, Gwangju and parts of Gangwon to 1.5 steps, but there are many prospects that it will be difficult to stop the spread for now, since the rate of increase of patients is faster than that of quarantine.

As for the main cases of infection, most of them are everyday infections, where infections occur throughout the living space. Small-scale gatherings such as acquaintance travel meetings in Songpa-gu, Seoul (18 people accumulated), online social gatherings in the metropolitan area (20 people), and Gyeonggi furniture manufacturers meetings (11 people) continue to cause infections.

The rate at which the number of confirmed cases is increasing is also much faster than the government predicted. On the 16th, Jung Eun-kyung, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, predicted that “almost 300-400 patients can occur in 2-4 weeks.” At the time, quarantine authorities expected the third coronavirus epidemic later this month, considering the spread, incubation period, and infection patterns, but the number of confirmed cases is increasing at a faster rate than what the quarantine authorities were waiting.

As the dire situation continued, quarantine authorities also announced that the 1.5-step social distancing measures that were originally intended to last for two weeks could be increased to the second step earlier.

“Even if the distance period is less than two weeks, the speed of the corona epidemic increases and the number of confirmed cases increases, and the intermediate situation can be assessed and raised early,” said Son Young-rae, head of the Division. of Strategic Planning of the Headquarters of Recovery of Accidents. “The metropolitan area suggested a case where the weekly average of daily confirmed cases exceeded 200 as the standard for a two-step update.”

Son said: “If you increase the level of distance in a short period of time, there is a side that makes life difficult for people before the effect of reducing the patient appears,” he said. “I will try to maintain level 1.5 as much as possible.” He added: “I upped it to 2.5 steps again in a week after the update of distance 2 last August, and there were many points that the effect of reducing patients was already in the second stage, and the upward adjustment of the distance it was a premature decision. “

Experts warned that the coronavirus occurs simultaneously throughout the country, and that there are many meetings and events before the end of the year, which could spread more quickly.

Eom Joong-sik, professor of infectious medicine at Gachon University Gil Hospital, said: “Previously, we were able to quickly reduce the number of confirmed cases by focusing on quarantine areas as specific areas or groups, but now epidemiological investigations and quarantine are difficult. “

He said: “After lowering social distancing to the first stage, the number of confirmed cases has increased dramatically since the amount of social movement increased to last year’s level,” he said. “Currently, there are 300 confirmed cases per day, but there are 400, 500 and up to 1,000 confirmed cases.” I was concerned.

“The pandemic has already started, and it will be a long and harsh winter,” said Kim Woo-joo, professor of infectious medicine at Korea Daeguro Hospital. “If you do not have distance or quarantine in the absence of a vaccine, it will be confirmed as in Europe or the United States, where more than 10,000 confirmed cases occur per day. The self can extend a lot,” he warned.