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On the 31st of last month (local time), three days before the US presidential election, Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden was ahead of Republican candidate Donald Trump in four race states. There are still observations that only two of the four are within the margin of error, making it difficult to compete easily.
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Trump wins all six four years ago
Florida two candidates up and down
Pennsylvania narrows the gap as it goes
According to a CNN poll of SSRS, a polling agency, conducted last month 23-30, Biden surpassed Trump in all four, according to a poll conducted by four states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and North Carolina. These four states are the regions where Trump won the presidential election four years ago. CNN predicted that President Trump’s defeat in any of these four states would disrupt the presidential path.
Biden won 53% in Michigan, beating Trump with 41% by 12 percentage points. In Wisconsin, the difference was 8 percentage points, 52% Biden vs. 44% Trump. The gap between the two is outside the margin of error. On the other hand, in Arizona and North Carolina, Biden took the lead within the margin of error. In Arizona, Biden’s 50% and Trump’s 46% were 4 percentage points. In North Carolina, Biden and Trump were 51% and 45%, respectively, 6 percentage points.
Last minute US presidential election
In the case of Florida and Pennsylvania, which are included in the six race states in addition to these four states, it is difficult to predict the advantage between the two candidates. Florida and Pennsylvania are regions where Trump played a decisive role in winning the presidential election by winning 1.4 percentage points and 1.1 percentage points respectively. In this presidential election, these two states are counted as places to determine the direction of victory or defeat.
According to Real Clear Politics (RCP), which aggregates the results of public opinion polls and calculates the average approval rating, in Florida, which has the highest number of electoral votes (29 people) among the six competing states, They are both showing recent annoyance. On October 27, Trump reversed for the first time with a difference of 0.4 percentage points (Biden 47.8% vs. Trump 48.2%), then the next day (28), after the reversal of Biden, from 1, a difference of 1.2 percentage points (Biden 48.3% vs. Trump 47.1%).
According to the PCR, in Pennsylvania, where 20 electoral members were held, the gap of 7.3 percentage points (Biden 51.1% vs Trump 43.8%) on October 12 was reduced to 4.1 percentage points (Biden 49.5% vs Trump 45.4%) . The results of the meeting in Florida and Pennsylvania are interpreted by the fact that the polls that predicted Trump’s victory in the last presidential elections, such as Trafalgar, have recently released the results of a poll that predicts Trump’s dominance in these regions.
Reporter Lee Geun-pyeong [email protected]
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