[ad_1]
If America’s Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden wins in Georgia, where ballots are fast, the only way President Donald Trump will not lose is a tie at 269-269. [AFP=연합뉴스]
The New York Times analyzed that on the fifth (local time), the third day of the United States presidential elections, the Democratic candidate Joe Biden could win 27 cases and the President of the United States, Donald Trump, in 4 cases.
Number of winning chances … 17 Biden, 4 Trump
Biden Pennsylvania If you win first
Elections end regardless of the outcome of other states
The formula changes when Trump is in Arizona
It looks like the count will be delayed that Georgia
According to the New York Times (NYT) and CNN counts, Biden is supposed to have 253 voters. NYT and others don’t see Arizona as a victory for Biden, with 90% of the vote counted. On the other hand, the Associated Press and Fox News previously declared Arizona a victory for Biden and see the electoral body as 264.
The number of cases in which Biden will be chosen. Graphic = Reporter Kim Kyung-jin [email protected]
First, if Biden beats Pennsylvania, which got 20 electoral votes, he would get a total of 273, surpassing the 270 ‘magic numbers’ for the presidential election. That is why the election ends if President Trump does not protect Pennsylvania.
If candidate Biden wins first in Georgia, which has a 99% tally rate at 4 p.m. Korean time, he will get 16 electoral votes and that will become 269 in total. One is missing from the magic number 270.
To fill one out, Biden can wait in Pennsylvania, where the next vote count is expected to be completed. If Biden takes Pennsylvania, which got 20 electoral votes, he will be elected president regardless of Arizona’s outcome.
In Pennsylvania, President Trump is 21,389 votes (0.3 percentage point) ahead of the 95% tally. The vote difference between the two candidates rapidly decreased from 100,000 votes on the morning of the 5th to 20,000 votes on the morning of the 6th.
However, if the game is too thin, even if Biden backs down, the state election authority can announce the winner after 100% of the counts are carefully processed. Of course, a media company that analyzes the counting information itself can declare the winner according to the “call” method.
Even if President Trump misses Georgia, he can extend his lifeline by winning Pennsylvania. In this case, 234 people will be insured, adding 20 to the 214 voters previously insured. 36 people lack the magic number.
Among the remaining competitions North Carolina (15) and Arizona (11), If you win all of Nevada (6 players) and bring Alaska (3 players), you’ll get to 269.
While President Trump ‘breaks the seal’, if Biden wins at least once and defeats five states, the election is over. If President Trump holds out to the end, it becomes a draw. If Biden wins Georgia first, the only way Trump won’t lose is a tie at 269-269.
Excluding Alaska, where President Trump leads with 62% of the vote, all other states are within the margin of error as of the afternoon of the 6th (Korean time). In terms of the vote difference, Biden has 0.9 percentage points in Nevada and Trump is 1.4 percentage points in North Carolina. In Arizona, Biden is ahead of Trump by 46,257 votes (1.6 percentage points).
If President Trump wins first in Arizona, Nevada or North Carolina, his life could be extended, but it is difficult to expect the count to be completed in the near future.
Nevada is ahead of Biden by 11,000 votes, but 190,000 votes remain. Additionally, all votes postmarked by Election Day (November 3) and arriving before November 10 are considered valid, with the recount expected to end only after being approved next week.
North Carolina is also valid until the vote-by-mail arrives on November 12, so the final count will move to next week.
Washington = Correspondent Park Hyun-young [email protected]
[ad_2]
