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Experts from the Korean Peninsula in the United States interpreted the visit of the US Secretary of State Stephen Beggan to Korea before the inauguration of the new administration as the willingness of the two countries to manage the situation on the Korean Peninsula even during the transfer of the government. It is an analysis that will focus on countermeasures against possible North Korean provocations and the strengthening of alliances with South Korea to contain China. This is reporter Ahn So-young.
Former US Deputy Vice Representative Joseph Detrani interpreted the visit of Veegan, who led North Korea’s denuclearization negotiations prior to the inauguration of a new government, to confirm that the strong US-Korean alliance remains no change no matter which government enters. .
[녹취: 디트라니 전 차석대표] “It is the Trump administration right now, and we have common goals, whether it is a Trump administration or a Biden administration to ensure that the alliance is strong and solid and that we continue to work together to solve the North Korean problem.”In a phone call with the VOA on the 7th, former Deputy Vice President Deputy Deputy Representative Deetri said in a phone call today that both the current Trump administration and the upcoming Biden administration have a common goal of maintaining a strong alliance between the United States and the United States. Korea and cooperate to solve the North Korean problem.
In particular, he noted that even at the time of the government transfer, the USFK’s visit to Korea is more significant since the Special Defense Cost Sharing Agreement (SMA) has not been finalized.
[녹취: 디트라니 전 차석대표]”We are trying to show that North Korea does not believe there is tension.”He is trying to show that there is no conflict between the United States and Korea in North Korea or between the two countries.
At the same time, Deetrani added: “At the same time, the United States still wants to resolve the North Korean problem peacefully and hopes that North Korea will respond by resuming dialogue.”
David Maxwell, a senior fellow at the Washington Foundation for the Protection of Democracy, said the government of the Republic of Korea invited Veegan to manage the situation on the Korean Peninsula at a vulnerable point before a new administration.
[녹취: 맥스웰 선임연구원] “The transition time is the vulnerable moment. I think it is important that South Korea and the United States should discuss what could happen in terms of potential North Korean provocation. “The provocation of North Korea during the transfer of the government complicates the situation much, and since it does not help the Trump administration as much as the Biden-elect, they do not prepare for an emergency between the United States and Korea, and North Korea proceeds to the provocation. That we need a discussion to avoid it.
Lead researcher Maxwell also predicted that amid the ongoing conflict between the United States and China, discussions will also take place on strengthening the alliance with South Korea to contain China.
[녹취: 맥스웰 선임연구원]”Probably discussions about how the US strategy for the Indo-Pacific is aligned with the Moon administration’s New South Strategy”,
There will be dialogues on how to coordinate the US Indo-Pacific strategy with the new southern policy of the Moon Jae-in administration, and the position and role of Korea in relation to the ‘quad’, a security conference It consists of four countries, including the United States, India, Japan, and Australia. Be.
Harry Kazianis, director of the US National Interest Research Center, said that the South Korean government appears to have invited Veegan on this occasion to encourage and bid farewell to Vice Minister Vegan, who has led the negotiations with North Korea. .
However, the fact that Veegan’s visit to Korea for five days during the transfer of government appears to be a bit long, and it may be that he is trying to achieve a dramatic diplomatic outcome at the end of the Trump administration due to the latest dialogue with North Korea or the achievements related to the USFK defense actions agreement. Said.
Experts predict that North Korea, which had been provocative before the new administration, will remain silent for the time being, unlike before.
[에반스 리비어] He suggests that the DPRK is still reflecting on how to proceed. Meanwhile, evidence is mounting that the Covid-19 pandemic, the closure of major cities, a staggering drop in trade with China, a poor harvest, and economic mismanagement are taking a significant toll on North Korea’s economy. . We must be on the lookout for signs that Pyongyang does not know how to deal with this crisis. The Party Congress and the SPA meeting next month will have to be carefully watched. “Evans Revere, a former deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the Pacific Affairs, said Pyongyang’s continued silence is an indication that it is still considering how to move forward. They say they are affected by poor harvests and difficult economic conditions.
So we have to see how North Korea will deal with this crisis, and the party conference to be held next month will be an important variable, Revere explained.
Director Kazianis said North Korea will refrain from provoking provocations for the next few weeks, but that the situation is fluid.
[녹취: 카지아니스 국장] “I just interviewed with NSA Robert O’brien, and he explained to me that North Korea is really not under a lot of stress with COVID right now. His exact words were that there is no major outbreak. So if Kim Jong Un starts to feel competent as if he had dodged a bullet with COVID 19, you can see him start testing ICBMs to get to the top of the administration’s agenda. “In a recent interview with White House National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien, I heard that there is no massive outbreak of coronavirus in North Korea.
So, he said, when North Korean President Kim Jong-un is satisfied with the crown’s response, he could conduct an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test to make the North Korean issue a top priority within the Biden administration.
This is Soyoung Ahn, VOA News.
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