A carbon neutral strategy without a core … “Existing countermeasures are only listed department store style”

▲ Vice Premier Hong Nam-ki will announce the ‘Carbon Neutral Promotion Strategy 2050’ with the ministers of the relevant ministries at the government building on the 7th. Union

[에너지경제신문 최윤지 기자] It is noted that the ‘Carbon Neutral Realization Promotion Strategy 2050’ announced by the government in the ruling Democratic Party and the political-party meeting on the 7th is missing.

To go to carbon neutrality (zeroization) in 2050, specific measures must be reflected to reduce carbon in the energy sector, the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, but that was not possible.

The experts respond that the policies included in the ad strategy were simply lists of measures already announced in the style of department stores.

According to last year’s GHG emissions estimates published by the National Committee for Statistical Management of Greenhouse Gases, the energy sector amounted to 6111.2 million and 87% of the total of 72.8 million tons.

This means that without specific carbon reduction programs in the energy sector, including power generation, carbon neutrality by 2050 is just a verbal line.

In fact, while this is the case, looking at the strategy announced today by the government, the strategy in the energy sector is not clear.

In the case of the energy sector included in the call strategy, the energy conversion plan based on the draft of the 9th (planning period 2020-2034) basic energy supply and demand plan (previous basic) announced by the government. The main point of this plan is to reduce the share of power generation by power generation by 28.6% in 2034 from 40.4% in the case of coal power generation, while increasing by 26.3 % in the current 5.2% for new and renewable energies. In accordance with this plan, the government decided to reduce coal-fired power generators from 60 to 30 in 2034.

Initially, the government established the carbon neutral period in 2062. The first draft of the ninth period was also established on the premise of these original government goals. It means that the period of carbon neutrality was initially moved forward 12 years from 2062 to 2050, but the roadmap for carbon reduction was not changed accordingly. The calendar adjustment of the carbon neutral target has not yet been reflected in the energy conversion plan. There are no long-term carbon reduction plans from 2034 to 2050. When reducing coal power generation, it is unclear what power generation sources will replace and how to design their ratios. The government has been accelerating denuclearized energy and the decoking of coal, and considered the alternative power generation source as liquefied natural gas (LNG). However, LNG power generation also emits less carbon than coal, but it is known to emit 60% of the coal. Achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 is difficult with current policies.

The government also recognizes this fact and plans to reflect it in the process of establishing various plans.

Commerce, Industry and Energy Minister Seong Yun-mo said on the day: “Stable energy supply and demand is an essential prerequisite in the process of promoting carbon neutrality.” “We will keep it.”

Minister Seong said: “The ninth basic plan for power supply and demand, which is currently being prepared, contains a drastic plan to reduce coal-based power generation, such as the abolition of 30 coal-fired power plants ( by 2034) “. I think the foundations will be laid ”.

The conditions for reaching the carbon neutral target in 2050 are also difficult.

National greenhouse gas emissions are expected to decline the most in 2018 (727.6 million tons).

However, the period left from peak to carbon neutral is only 32 years, which is stricter than that of the EU (60 years) or Japan (37 years).

In the industrial structure, the manufacturing sector and the large proportion of industries such as steel and high-carbon petrochemicals also act as a limiting factor for the early realization of carbon neutrality.

Last year, Korea’s manufacturing and energy consumption sectors accounted for 28.4% and 8.4%, respectively, higher than the EU (16.4% · 5.0%) and the US. (11.0% · 3.7%). In terms of energy mix (composition), the share of coal-based power generation (40.4%) is higher than that of the United States (24.0%), Japan (32.0%) and Germany ( 30.0%).

Under these circumstances, if the industrial structure changes from high carbon to low carbon and the expansion of new and renewable energy, the industrial load may increase and competitiveness may weaken.

Inflation is also of concern, such as declining jobs due to weakening existing industrial bases, such as thermal power generation and internal combustion locomotives, and rising utility bills, such as costs. of electricity and heating.

However, the government believes that changes to deal with the new international order are inevitable given the specificity of the economic and industrial structure with high commercial dependence.

A tepid response to carbon neutrality will negatively affect exports, foreign financing, and corporate credit ratings, such as limiting investment and global sourcing (foreign buying) opportunities in key industries.

In particular, if the EU and the US introduce a carbon border tax, major national industries like petrochemicals and steel, which are highly carbon intensive, will be unavoidable.

On the other hand, the government explained that the use of excellent low-carbon technologies such as batteries and hydrogen and digital technologies that the national industry possesses can preventively respond to carbon neutrality and create new opportunities.

A government official said: “In the age of global transformation, carbon neutrality is difficult, but it is an essential path.”