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Hong-gyun Kim, Associate Professor at Dong-A University, former Head of the Korean Peninsula Peace Negotiations Headquarters, Ministry of Foreign Affairs
North Korea may provoke before the launch of the new US government.
Effective deterrence of US nuclear expansion.
Early conclusion of defense cost sharing negotiations, etc.
Create a close coordination system with North Korea.
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On October 10, North Korea unveiled the world’s largest mobile launching intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and a new form of the submarine launching ballistic missile (SLBM) at the party’s 75th anniversary ceremony. At the end of last year, Kim Jong-un’s spiel about the Chairman of the State Council, Kim Jong-un, who said: “In the near future, the world will see the emergence of new strategic weapons” became a reality. . As a result, the series of “ peace programs ” that began with President Kim’s so-called “ decision to denuclearize ” in 2018 and led to a century-long summit between the United States and North Korea with President Donald Trump finally came to an end, and President Kim’s strong desire to maintain nuclear weapons and missiles under any circumstances. Only the will was confirmed again. It means that North Korea’s nuclear problem has changed and regressed beyond its origin.
That doesn’t mean you can’t sit here. With the end of the US presidential elections, which worried the world, and the decision of the new owner of the White House, the Republic of Korea and the United States must rewrite their North Korean strategy. The first task is to restore the international sanctions regime against North Korea to pressure North Korea’s true decision to denuclearize. At the end of 2017, the international community has completed the most robust and comprehensive network of sanctions against North Korea through UN Security Council sanctions and independent sanctions. It was the result of the unwavering commitment of the international community to make North Korea an alternative between survival and nuclear weapons.
However, with North Korea’s peace offensive in 2018, South Korea’s peace speech, and President Trump’s promotion of the reality show summit, the North Korea sanctions regime began to collapse earlier. even go into effect. China-Russia insisted on easing sanctions, and North Korea’s illegal foreign exchange earning through lax sanctions is happening. In light of its past behavior, North Korea is likely to use the old tactics of shaking off provocations and starting negotiations in an advantageous position before the new US administration is ready for office. Sanctions are almost the only lever (lever) against North Korea in a situation where North Korea will never give up its nuclear weapons. That is why sanctions against North Korea must be reinstated and strengthened before negotiations with North Korea.
Efforts are also needed to make America’s extended deterrence effective in responding to the North Korean nuclear threat. As North Korea develops its ICBM capability to attack New York and Washington with nuclear weapons, doubts will grow about whether the United States will defend South Korea against North Korea. We must find a way to give credibility to the promise of America’s nuclear umbrella. Participate in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) type nuclear planning group, the deployment of dual capacity air and maritime energy, the deployment of low-power tactical nuclear weapons and cruise missiles near the Korean Peninsula, etc. . It is time for Korea and the United States to seriously discuss various plans together. If you don’t believe in America, your own theory of nuclear weapons will break that vacuum.
Ultimately, the alliance must strengthen the strength of the alliance by resolving elements of the conflict between the ROK and the United States and establishing a close-knit cooperative system with North Korea. To ensure the stable presence of the USFK, which is the foundation of the alliance, a reasonable multi-year Defense Cost Share Agreement (SMA) must be concluded in advance. The OPCON shift is a priority for North Korea’s nuclear missile response and the combined ROK and US operations, and it’s not a matter of rushing forward with a set deadline. There is nothing more important than protecting the lives of our people from the threat of North Korean missiles. The missile defense network should be expanded through the additional deployment of High Altitude Missile Defense System (THAAD) batteries and Patriot missile interlocking. The security cooperation between South Korea and Japan, which is in a dying state, should be revitalized not only in consideration of cooperation with North Korea, but also in consideration of the use of the UNC rear base to support troops and supplies from US and UN forces in an emergency.
Denuclearization of North Korea seems like an impossible and never-ending path. However, the moment we give up, we will be living with the core forever. Now is the time to fasten your shoelaces and take on America again.
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