[ad_1]
US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un dine together at the North American Summit in Hanoi, Vietnam, in February 2019. Yunhap news
Time is an obstacle to bottom-up negotiations
The bottom-up negotiations presuppose that North Korea is an unreliable dialogue partner. It is a negotiation method that confirms the details in advance as the other party can cancel the agreement. The negotiations are expected to be conducted in such a way that North Korean and US working-level negotiators closely examine denuclearization measures and compensation measures, and meet with leaders after they have been reached. concrete agreements and implementations. There is an advantage that can bring substantial progress in the denuclearization of North Korea in the sense that it is supported by discussion and verification among experienced working-level experts.
However, the bottom-up method has the disadvantage of being time consuming. The task force has experience, but the political power is weak. As a result, they negotiate carefully for what they are not responsible for. If there is a high-level objection to the work-level staff agreements, negotiations can always go back to the source. Naturally, it takes time.
The time it takes to launch the Biden administration is also expected to be a variable. Even if it launches on January 20 next year, hearings for key personnel will take at least three to four months. After that, it will take a few more months to review policies and propose negotiations to North Korea. Even if the United States is in a hurry and the North responds to negotiations immediately, it appears that negotiations will resume until next June-July. Even assuming the negotiations go well later, it will take another months or more for the discussion to move from the working level to the normal level. In the end, the year is very likely to pass and Korea will be the next presidential election.
North Korea’s potential for strategic provocation
Since the bottom-up method takes a long time, North Korea will try to increase the proportion of North Korean problems within the Biden administration through strategic provocations. As a result, there are concerns about the possibility of North Korea conducting an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test or a submarine launch ballistic missile (SLBM) test before or after the inauguration of the Biden administration or during military training combined of the Republic of Korea and the United States in March next year.
North Korea’s new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was unveiled at a parade ceremony marking the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Labor Party on 10 last month. It needs to be confirmed if it has the ability to mount multiple warheads, but it is evaluated as the world’s largest mobile ICBM based on its length. Capture of labor newspaper
As for Kim Jong-un, he feels that he must somehow avoid further deterioration in a situation where the North Korean economy remains complicated due to sanctions against North Korea. As a result, American public opinion through strategic provocations is expected to force the Biden administration to demand a solution to the North Korean problem. This is the traditional North Korean negotiating method that we witnessed in the early days of the Obama and Trump administrations. As a result, there are concerns that military tension will build up on the Korean peninsula early next year.
If North Korea launches a multi-tanhead missile or completes a submarine that is being broadcast under construction and launches a ballistic missile from the water, it can further strengthen its ability to strike the American continent. It is difficult for the Biden administration to neglect the situation in which the continental United States and the American forces in Korea are under nuclear threat from North Korea. Eventually, the negotiations will resume and North Korea is expected to proceed with negotiations to possess nuclear weapons if possible.
Chance to become Little Dillo
During the presidential elections, Biden-elect mentioned North Korea’s advance in denuclearization and denuclearization actions. In other words, North Korea must first take steps to denuclearize and ultimately seek a nuclear-weapon-free Korean peninsula through negotiations with North Korea. No specific mention was made of the peace regime on the Korean peninsula. Perhaps only if there is progress on North Korea’s denuclearization measures, it seems that it will answer the question of an end to the war or a peace treaty.
The problem is that North Korea will not easily give up its nuclear weapons. Contrary to the expectations of the Korean government, North Korea is expressing its intention to possess nuclear weapons more explicitly over time. In the content of Vice Minister Kim Yeo-jeong’s speech to the United States published on July 10, the expression “Don’t try to get rid of our nuclear weapons, but don’t make our nuclear weapons a threat. The intention is not to negotiate denuclearization, which eliminates all nuclear weapons, but to negotiate nuclear disarmament, which partially reduces nuclear weapons.
If North Korea intends to possess nuclear weapons, the Biden administration is likely to continue to pressure North Korea. After intensive sanctions were imposed on North Korea in 2017, the implementation has not gone well due to the United States-North Korea summit or the North Korea-China summit after 2018. Therefore, States The United States will try to pressure North Korea by demanding the implementation of sanctions against North Korea, like China. However, considering the recent honeymoon between North Korea and China, it seems unlikely that China will act as the United States intends. In this case, North Korea’s denuclearization measures fail and only time is wasted. For the newly launched Biden administration, it will face the worst.
Michelle Flunoy (left), the first defense secretary in the Biden administration to be in charge of North Korean policy, and Michelle Flunoy (left), president of the US New Security Research Institute and former undersecretary from the State Department, Tony Blincoln Reuters Yonhap News Material photo of Hankook Ilbo
The best thing that can come up right now is the freeze transaction. Among experts on the side of the US Democratic Party, there are nonproliferationists who believe that freezing North Korea’s nuclear capabilities is significant. They argue that North Korea’s nuclear material or nuclear technology should be prevented from leaking to foreign countries like the Middle East, and they acknowledge that freezing is the first step. They even show a position that financial compensation can be provided for the freeze on North Korea’s nuclear activities. For North Korea trying to possess nuclear weapons, such a freeze proposal could be fascinating. As a result, the probability of freezing transactions is expected to increase during the Biden administration.
In short, there is concern about North Korea’s strategic provocation in the early days of the Biden administration, and then a tug-of-war is expected through US-US labor-level negotiations, with intense anticipation. pressure for a while. If the negotiations do not have significant results, there are concerns that the direction could change due to the freeze, but it seems difficult to expect a summit between the United States and North Korea next year.
Shin Beom-cheol, Director of the Center for Foreign Affairs and Security, National Institute for Strategic Research
◆ Posting order
① North American relations
② ROK-US Alliance
③ Conflict between the United States and China
④ Protection trade
⑤ Social conflict in the United States
You can also watch the Naver Et news edited by Hankook Ilbo.
[ad_2]
