“The possibility of changes in US policy toward North Korea increases … The joint training between Korea and the United States in March next year marks a milestone”

Until the diplomatic line between the two countries is established, it appears that the ‘scouting war’ will take place.

Biden prioritizes domestic crown issues

Unlike ‘strategic patience’ … Due to North Korea’s nuclear power advance

North Korea provokes with resumption of joint ROK-US training. In March of next year

At the end of the term, 文 appears to induce North Korean provocations and induce negotiations in the United States.

The US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden won the 11.3 presidential elections on the 7th (local time). The photo shows then-Vice President Joe Biden raising his hand after a political speech at Yonsei University in Seodaemun-gu, Seoul on December 6, 2013./Yonhap News

As US President-elect Joe Biden declared victory in the election, attention is also being drawn to changes in US policy toward North Korea in the future. Diplomatic and security experts diagnosed that as North Korea’s nuclear technology advances, the Biden administration is unlikely to adopt a “strategic patience” that minimizes involvement in the North Korean problem as it did in the Obama administration. . North Korea is expected to go through a search until a specific position comes out from the Biden administration, rather than immediately provoke, according to the Singapore-North Korea summit agreement. Furthermore, the role of the Moon Jae-in administration is emerging as a concern, as the Biden administration’s policy towards North Korea is likely to drop in rank. However, experts diagnosed that next March could become an important milestone in the relations between the United States and North Korea, since the possibility of provocations by North Korea based on military exercises cannot be ruled out. of the Republic of Korea-United States.

According to a diplomat on the 8th, the United States and North Korea are expected to enter a search battle until a diplomatic line is established. The experts analyzed that the possibility of the North Korean provocation is not high while the United States is expected to concentrate on the formation of the executive cabinet over the next half year. Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the North Korean Graduate University, said: “Since the two countries agreed to a moratorium on nuclear missiles at the Singapore-North Korea summit in Singapore, we will not make a related high-intensity strategic provocation with nuclear weapons and missiles unless Biden breaks the 6 · 12 deal first. ” Forecast.

The fact that the Biden administration is not prioritizing the North Korean issue adds to this observation. Biden’s approach is to overcome the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) throughout the election process, so it is highly likely that he will focus on quarantine issues for now. Externally, it is expected to focus on pressure on China via Quad (an unofficial four-country security council made up of the United States, Japan, Australia and India). During his campaign, President-elect Biden also emphasized that he would not contact North Korea first, saying: “On the premise that North Korea will reduce its nuclear capabilities, it will meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.”

However, diplomats say it is unlikely that Biden-elect will again opt for a “strategic patience” that minimizes intervention in North Korea. “The situation is different from strategic patience,” Hong Min, director of the North Korea Institute for National Unification Studies, said of the situation in North Korea facing the Biden administration. When the Barack Obama administration was launched in 2008, North Korea’s nuclear technology was not at the level that would be a real threat to the United States, but 12 years later, the threat level is increasing by the day. On the 10th of last month, North Korea will introduce a new type of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Labor Party.

This draws attention to the role of the Korean government in coordinating relations with the United States. Im-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Far East Research Institute, said: “Since the establishment of the Biden administration, it is difficult to establish channels of dialogue between North Korea and the United States. The role of mediator will be highlighted again. “

However, it cannot be ruled out that US-US relations will deteriorate again depending on whether the joint ROK-US exercises scheduled for March next year are carried out and the intensity. At the Panmunjom talks in June last year, US President Donald Trump promised to “ provisionally suspend the joint training of the ROK and the United States ” through talks with President Kim, but Biden could neutralize the existing agreement by emphasizing the alliance. Professor Lee Jeong-cheol of Soongsil University said: “If North Korea views the (ROK-US) military exercise in March next year as a provocation, there is a possibility of provoking at any shape”. Indicated. Professor Yang predicted that “the US military training in March next year will be an opportunity to judge whether North Korea is provocative or not,” and predicted that “if it is training that even deploys strategic weapons, it will be repelled by armed demonstrations from High intensity”. In this case, concerns are raised that the North Korean provocation could lead to US-North Korean relations again, and a vicious cycle could emerge that triggers stronger provocations.