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© News1 Former Vice President of the United States, Joe Biden, was elected the 46th President of the United States, winning in Pennsylvania, his hometown and his biggest competitor. President Donald Trump’s objection procedure remains, but the election is confirmed and Biden will take office as the 46th president of the United States on January 20 of next year.
There is already interest in how the new US policy toward China will change when candidate Joe Biden wins the US presidential election. This is because it is one of the most important variables for the Korean economy going forward.
Experts generally predict that tensions between the United States and China will remain the same despite Biden’s victory. Rather, pressure is predicted to mount to urge the United States and China to do otherwise.
During his tenure, President Trump led the ‘US-China trade war’, spearheaded by tough trade sanctions with China. The trade war between the United States and China has been a bad thing for the Korean economy, which relies on exports from both the United States and China. Recently, there is also the view that Korea’s flagship industries, which are competitive with China, such as semiconductors and mobile phones, are making reflective gains due to pressure on China. Therefore, attention is being paid to whether Biden will lead the trade war started by Trump. will be. Experts generally believe that Biden’s trade policy with China will not be much different from Trump’s. Tae-yoon Sung, professor of economics at Yonsei University, said: “No matter who is in this presidential election, the impact on our economy will not be significant. This is because both candidates are substantially similar. “
“With the election of Biden, the conflict between the United States and China may seem more mitigated,” he said. “Even if it mitigates, there is not much chance to alleviate it in the high-tech field. Except for that part, the rest of the parts do not have much of an impact on Korea.
President Trump stipulated the rapid development of China’s advanced technology since the beginning of his term as a threat to the security of the United States. This perception generated some consensus in the American public opinion, and Trump has imposed sanctions against China based on this. Awareness of China’s high-tech development crisis is a common perception of the Democratic Party, so even if Biden is elected, it can be said that China’s controls on high-tech will continue.
Rather, there are predictions that Biden’s way of slowing down China will pose a more difficult problem for Korea.
Professor Shinyul from the Department of Political Science and Diplomacy at Myongji University said: “There will be no difference between Trump and Biden, but there will be a difference along the way (in the direction to control China). It is very likely that a multilateral pressure method ”.
“One of Biden’s mottos is ‘America must lead again,’ so Biden has no choice but to value the alliance. Also, since Biden has been working on the diplomatic side for a long time, they will think that pressure through the traditional method and the alliance will work. I can not “.
Professor Shin said: “In relation to China, Korea will be more difficult.” “I will pressure China into the alliance, so I will ask it to join our country as well. Then it will be difficult for our country to refuse. “
State research institutes also did that analysis. The Korean Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) reported on the 6th, “The Biden Administration’s Economic Policy Outlook and Implications” on US trade policy with China. Through this, he is expected to adopt a pressure strategy against China. “
“It (the Biden administration) is expected to adopt a joint strategy of public pressure strengthening solidarity with allies to eradicate the infringement of intellectual property rights and unfair business practices of Chinese companies against US companies.” As Korea’s countermeasure against this, it recommended that “it is necessary to prepare a response strategy in preparation for the possibility of strategically meeting with the CPTPP to control China.”
Until now, Trump has maintained controls against China in a manner close to a “one-on-one confrontation.” Instead of mobilizing the allies in the fight against China, they also showed an aggressive attitude towards the allies, saying, “The alliance is more concerned about the United States than the enemy.” Furthermore, instead of using an international organization like the WTO for massive disputes, it seemed to leave the WTO alone. Experts predicted that Biden would instead force allies, including South Korea, to join the fight against China.
In light of the above cases, it is highly likely that the situation in which the United States and China are chosen will not be beneficial for the Korean economy. Representatively, around 2016, there was a time when the US and China had shrimp etc. At the time, China expanded and interpreted Korea’s deployment of THAAD as an alternative ‘China or the United States’ issue, and banned all its citizens from traveling to Korea. Because of this, the trade surplus with China fell once by 36%. As of 2019, the Chinese market accounted for 27% of Korea’s exports and the US for 10%, and recreating the situation where the pressure to choose just one of them could be bad for the Korean economy.
(Sejong = News 1)
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