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As Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden secures the necessary constituency for the elections, a major shift in US policy on the Korean peninsula is expected when he takes office as president. Previously, President Donald Trump had two summit meetings with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, but the focus is on how to address Biden’s growing nuclear threat in a situation where he was unable to resolve the clues to the North Korean nuclear program.
● Biden “Kim Jong-un, we must comply with nuclear reduction”
Candidate Biden has previously criticized President Trump, who attached importance to a “top-down” solution based on personal friendship with President Kim over the North Korean nuclear issue. At the same time, the “prerequisites” were also seen to be laid out at the US-China summit. In the second television debate of the presidential elections on October 22, “We can only meet if we agree to reduce nuclear capabilities. In other words, the Korean peninsula must become a nuclear-weapon-free zone. ” For the biden-era US-North Korea summit, North Korea reached an agreement to reduce its nuclear capacity.
In the discussion at the time, candidate Biden said: “We are not at war with North Korea. “It’s good to have a good relationship with foreign leaders,” he told President Trump, who defended relations with North Korea, saying, “Before Hitler invaded Europe, we had a good relationship with Hitler.” He also referred to President Kim as a ‘bully’ with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Former Secretary of State Tony Blingen, who is currently Chairman of the Foreign Affairs and Security Team at Biden Camp, also commented in a media interview that Kim was “one of the worst tyrants” and that “President Trump dealt with the worst dictator. of the world as well as the president of the United States. ” did. Although candidate Biden has not closed off the possibility of a summit meeting with President Kim, there is a possibility that North Korea will not respond if it guarantees the results of denuclearization as a prerequisite for dialogue. Instead of the summit meeting, there is also the possibility that North Korea will try to lower the “conditions of dialogue” for Biden by carrying out military provocations.
● Is defense cost sharing loosening?
The flow of negotiations for the ROK and US defense cost sharing is also expected to change. Earlier, President Trump called on allies such as Korea and Germany to increase the defense cost share, saying: “I will leave the ‘world sheriff’ and claim the bill.” State.
When the Biden era opens, the pressure on the United States to increase defense costs is expected to ease. In July, the Democratic Party said: “President Trump’s ‘American Priority’ has isolated the United States from the international community, in a jeonggang that contains the main political orientations of the party. The US alliance system faced the greatest test since the Cold War, ”he said, emphasizing the recovery of relations with the allies, citing Korea as a representative example.
“In the midst of the nuclear crisis on the Korean peninsula, President Trump has attempted to ‘alter’ the alliance with Korea by significantly increasing the cost of the alliance.” I will not treat you. “From South Korea’s point of view, there is an expectation that negotiations on defense costs could be concluded at a reasonable rate of increase. However, as the Trump administration’s logic that ‘taxes of Americans are used to cover defense spending ‘has already been printed on Americans, there are observations that an increase above the previous level is inevitable.
The relocation of US troops overseas, which President Trump pushed strongly, is likely to continue, but it is generally considered that no adjustments will be made as long as the allied coalition defense forces against the enemy are in place. danger. There is also a cautious assessment that the possibility of a reduction in the size of the USFK in Korea has diminished.
● The conflict between the United States and China that will become complicated … An alternative moment advances
As the conflict between the United States and China is expected to continue even after President Biden took office, the demand from the United States to strengthen the solidarity of the alliance against alliances such as South Korea is expected to increase. Professor Graham Allison of Harvard University, an international security expert, said: “There is an electoral atmosphere in the United States that demands greater efforts in China as if competing. Even if Biden wins, the relations between the United States and China are destined to worsen”. The only difference is the way conflicts are handled under a more sophisticated and systematic strategy. As seen previously in the Democratic Party gang, the Biden administration emphasized cooperation with allies. Building on strong solidarity with allies, it is hoped that there will be a growing voice calling for solidarity against China with the United States in all fields of politics and economics.
If the trade conflict between the United States and China escalates, confusion among Korean companies could increase. Previously, as Huawei was excluded from the competition due to the ‘Huawei ban’, Samsung Electronics signed a contract for 5G communication equipment with Verizon, the largest mobile telecommunications company in the United States, and is assessed to have benefited from the American public sanctions. However, the conflict between the United States and China is deepening, and if the import of finished goods from China, which accounts for 80% of Korea’s exports of intermediate goods, could be banned, Korea could be affected. Ahn Deok-geun, a professor at the Graduate School of International Studies at Seoul National University, said: “If candidate Biden takes power, we can strengthen economic alliances between allies, such as the Economic Prosperity Network, and promote a strategy to create a new international trade order. At some point, you will have to decide. ”
The same goes for options in the field of international security, as well as trade and commerce. President Trump expects South Korea’s participation in expanding the ‘Quad’, a four-nation cooperation, in ‘Quad Plus’ with the goal of ‘NATO’ for the India-Pacific version in order to stop China’s influence. in the Indo-Pacific region. Even if candidate Biden is elected, the position that he values solidarity with allies is expected to remain.
Experts say that if the conflict between the United States and China is prolonged, Korea will have limits to maintain its current strategic ambiguity. James Kim, a senior fellow at the Asan Institute for Political Studies, said: “If the conflict between the United States and China solidifies with the New Cold War, there must be a specific framework and strategy for foreign and security policies, like what kind of choice Korea will take and what actions to take in what situation. ”
Reporter Kim Ye-yoon [email protected]
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