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Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden delivers a convinced victory speech at the Wilmington Chase Center in Delaware on the 4th (local time) with vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris watching. [AFP = 연합뉴스]If the probability that the candidate of the Democratic Party of the United States, Joe Biden, will be elected president increases, the diplomatic and security strategy on the Korean peninsula is expected to change 180 degrees in the future.
The opposite situation is expected to occur with President Donald Trump in all policies, including North Korean policy, as well as defense costs and wartime rights negotiations. In particular, the diplomatic and security line on the Korean peninsula is considering provoking North Korea immediately after the US presidential elections, so it is necessary to prepare thoroughly for future problems. However, with Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-hwa and Unification Minister Lee In-young expecting a visit to the United States starting next week, it is anticipated that the elected and local party will be able to respond quickly.
The Trump administration has been leading policy toward North Korea for the past four years, maintaining a “top-down” method of solving problems through ties between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and the leader. However, it is very likely that the Biden administration will take the form of a “bottom up” that emphasizes negotiations on a more practical level. Candidate Biden has consistently revealed that he would not respond to the summit without North Korea’s substantial denuclearization measures, and that he would maintain sanctions on North Korea until North Korea abandons all its nuclear and missile programs.
Some believe that if Biden is elected president, a strategic patience similar to that of President Barack Obama and the sanctions against North Korea will reappear, but the possibility is slim. This is because North Korea’s nuclear development has already progressed considerably and passed cards cannot be recovered. Biden stressed that he will cooperate with neighboring countries such as South Korea, referring to North Korea as a “violent ship” even during the television debate. However, he is expected to show an open attitude towards humanitarian aid and exchanges with North Korea.
Due to the nature of candidate Biden, who values multilateralism, the North Korea issue will no longer be a priority, preparations for negotiations will be delayed amid the administration shakeup and the expectation that there will be no room to lend. attention to the North Korean issue until the beginning of the year is gaining traction.
The topic of defense cost negotiations was expected to be a pressing issue during President Trump’s re-election, but the Biden administration may approach it from a slightly different perspective. If President Trump has prioritized the issue of costs, then Biden values the alliance. However, that is not a problem that can be overlooked. This year’s defense cost agreement has not been signed for 11 months. In the end, we have to try to figure it out somehow. However, candidate Biden professed in a recent contribution to the national media that he will not blackmail Korea by threatening the withdrawal of US forces in Korea.
The Biden administration, which calls for the reestablishment of alliance relations and the reactivation of multilateralism, raises the need to quickly resolve the ongoing negotiations on defense costs and solidify relations with South Korea. The recognition that the Trump administration’s defense cost demand, which had risen to a maximum of $ 5 billion (about 5.7 trillion won), is expected to be shared with the South Korean government, and he’s expected to try an early deal with a hefty concession.
The issue of OPCON’s conversion was difficult to see within the period of Moon Jae-in’s administration, no matter who was elected. This is because the ROK-US. The US failed to successfully perform the second-stage Full Operational Capability (FOC) verification, which verifies the operational capabilities of the future ROK Army-led Combined Command in August, leading to a disruption in the plan to convert OPCON. US Defense Secretary Mark Esper also said at the Korean-American Security Council (SCM) on 28 last month: “It will take time to meet all the conditions.” There is also the possibility to respond passively to OPCON negotiations by continuing to emphasize the conditions for the OPCON conversion. For the United States, as the conflict with China intensifies, the importance of the alliance between the ROK and the United States increases, and there may be a calculation that there is no need to rush the transition from OPCON entrusting the command of future CFC to the Korean general. Even when the Biden administration comes in, the basic ‘condition-based OPCON conversion’ framework is expected to remain unchanged. However, political considerations are expected to be excluded in the OPCON conversion negotiations, but rather the conditions that need to be met will be examined more closely.
Candidate Biden said openly that “there is no reduction of US forces in Korea,” but the United States has already reviewed the redeployment of US troops stationed abroad, using the vague expression of “strategic flexibility.”
Experts interpret that US forces in Korea can be relocated to other Asian regions as much as possible according to changes in the situation in the Asia-Pacific region, where the competition for supremacy between the United States and China is turning into the main stage. However, since candidate Biden has consistently expressed his respect for the alliance, it is relatively unlikely that he will abruptly reduce US forces in Korea and threaten the alliance.
Diplomacy predicts that when the Biden administration enters, relations between Korea and Japan may come under immediate pressure. Candidate Biden is expected to express his intentions directly or indirectly in the allied conflict. Over time, the pressure is expected to mount for the restoration of relations between Korea and Japan, which have severed our diplomatic and security lines.
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