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President Donald Trump and candidate Joe Biden see the Korean peninsula completely differently. Given that there is a huge gap in all policies, from North Korean politics to defense costs to OPCON negotiations, no matter which side is chosen, a furor is expected along the peninsula’s diplomatic and security lines. from Korea. Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-hwa and Unification Minister Lee In-young forecast their visit to the United States starting next week, so it is expected that the local government will be able to respond quickly according to the election results.
◆ North Korean politics
The Trump administration is expected to lead North Korean policy while maintaining the existing “top-down” format in a broad framework. This is because the close personal relationship between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has led to most of the appeasement phase. When President Trump is re-elected, it is estimated that he will organize a third summit between the United States and North Korea with President Kim to continue this dynamic. However, to make up for the failure of the Hanoi summit in February last year, it is a burden that both leaders must achieve more than they had at the time.
The Biden administration is likely to take the form of a “bottom-up” that emphasizes negotiation at a more practical level. Candidate Biden has consistently revealed that he would not respond to the summit without North Korea’s substantial denuclearization measures, and that he would maintain sanctions on North Korea until it abandons all its nuclear and missile programs. Due to the nature of the Biden administration, which is expected to attach great importance to multilateralism, the North Korea issue will no longer be a priority, preparations for negotiations will be delayed amid the administration shakeup and the expectation that there will be no room to pay attention to the North Korean problem until the beginning of the year is gaining steam. .
◆ Negotiation of defense costs
President Trump has emphasized that his allies have not paid a fair share of defense spending, so even if he is re-elected, he is not expected to withdraw from the current demand for contributions. With the stubborn stance of the South Korean government, the issue of defense costs is likely to emerge as the most explosive trigger in US-Korean relations. This year’s defense cost agreement has not been signed for 11 months amid sharp differences in positions between the Republic of Korea and the United States. In this situation, there is concern that if the year goes by, there may be a crack in the USFK’s readiness. President Trump is said to have made several comments to the effect of not realizing the need for American forces in Korea, especially in private. If the negotiation gap is prolonged and there is a problem with the preparation, it is hoped that the USFK reduction / withdrawal card can be withdrawn as a last resort.
On the other hand, in a recent article in the national media, candidate Biden declared that he “will not extort money from Korea by threatening the withdrawal of US forces in Korea” and solidified the position of “keeping the USFK”. From the perspective of the Biden administration, which calls for the reestablishment of alliance relations and the reactivation of multilateralism, the need arises to quickly resolve the ongoing negotiations on defense costs and to solidify relations with South Korea. The recognition that the Trump administration’s defense spending demand, which had risen to a maximum of $ 5 billion (about 5.7 trillion won), is expected to be shared with the South Korean government, and an early deal is expected to be attempted in a way that makes considerable concessions.
◆ All rights reserved
Regardless of whether President Trump is elected or Bi or Candidate is elected, it seems impossible to convert OPCON within the Moon Jae-in administration term. This is because the ROK and the United States did not correctly carry out the full operational capability check of the second stage, which verifies the operational capability of the future ROK Army-led combined command in August. , which caused an interruption in the plan to convert OPCON. Even if candidate Biden comes to power, the same appears to be true of the agreement between the US and the ROK: ‘OPCON conversion based on conditions. However, there is the possibility that, rather than excluding political considerations in the OPCON conversion negotiations, the conditions that need to be met will be examined more closely.
◆ Reduction of US forces in Korea
When President Trump is elected, efforts to implement “American First” will be further strengthened, he stressed. Given that President Trump has emphasized the “financial contributions” of allies to US troops stationed overseas, concerns about the reduction of US troops in Korea are expected to continue during Trump’s second term. This is not irrelevant to the omission of a clause that has been reflected in the joint statement of the 52nd Security Council of the ROK and the US (SCM) announced by the defense authorities of the ROK. and from the US on the 28th of last month, which has been mirrored in the past. In the case of candidate Biden, the US logic of “strategic flexibility” is expected not to change. However, given that candidate Biden has consistently expressed his respect for the alliance, it is relatively unlikely that he will pressure South Korea by linking the issue of reducing US forces in Korea to negotiating defense costs.
◆ Korea-Japan relations
In the past two years, President Trump has deepened the conflict between Korea and Japan due to past issues like forced labor, but did not pay much attention except for the Korea-Japan Military Information Protection Agreement (GSOMIA). After Korea’s announcement of the end of Jisomia last year, President Trump emphasized the importance of Korea-Japan relations and mentioned the conflict over the Jisomia issue for the first time in a situation where Korean security cooperation , The United States and Japan is critical. On the other hand, the perspective of diplomats is that if Biden is elected, relations between Korea and Japan could be under immediate pressure. Since Biden emphasizes alliances in any case, he can express his intentions directly or indirectly in the allied conflict. In the end, there is great pressure that we will have to recover the broken relationship between Korea and Japan somehow.
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