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Variable postal voting area. Graphic = Reporter Kim Kyung-jin [email protected]
The next president of the United States will be decided again by mail-in ballot boxes in three states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. This is because when the mail-in ballot box was opened in the second half of the vote count here, President Donald Trump, who had a huge lead early on, got into a battle with Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden. In the three states of Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16) and Wisconsin (10), 46 constituents are at stake.
Wisconsin 0.6% followed by Michigan 0.3%
In Pennsylvania, Trump leads 600,000 votes,
More than 2.3 million votes by mail with the support of 78% of Biden
NYT “Trump filed an invalidation lawsuit in Pennsylvania”
In the history of the US presidential elections, 20 years have passed since Al Gore (Democratic) against George W. Bush (Republic) in 2000 could not confirm the next president until the following day.
President Trump lost between 6% and 7% of Hillary Clinton’s candidate here four years ago, and was successful in last-minute fights in Pennsylvania (0.7 percentage point), Michigan (0.2 percentage point) and Wisconsin (0.8 percentage points) with a slight margin. With the first promise of the United States to “give back the factories and the jobs,” they secured a large number of white workers from the “Blue Wall of the Democratic Party.”
Graphic = Reporter Kim Young-ok [email protected]
This time the situation was exactly the opposite. At the middle of the count in the three states, President Trump was 5-15 percentage points ahead of Biden. President Trump also held an evening lecture at the White House after 2 a.m. local time (4 p.m. KST) and mentioned the results of the Rust Belt count, proclaiming, “We have already won. In particular, in Pennsylvania, we are winning with a large margin. ” did.
However, soon after, a close battle situation developed. It started in Wisconsin. As of 2 p.m. KST, President Trump was between 51.9% and 46.6% ahead of the vote count at 6:40 p.m. and more than 85%, 49.4% of Biden. it registered 49.1% and President Trump fell by 0.3 percentage points. At 10 p.m., Biden doubled the gap with President Trump by 49.6% from 48.9%.
Then Michigan started shaking. President Trump outperformed Biden by 9 percentage points from 66% of the vote count rate at 4 p.m. to 53.7% versus 44.7%, but the gap with Biden was halved to 51, 4% versus 47.0% at 8 pm.
Again, as of 10 p.m., the counting rate dropped by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3% versus 49.1% of 90% of the votes, and only 13,000. Then at 11 p.m., the vote rate was 94%, and Biden began to lead by 49.3% against Trump, 49.1% and 0.3% points.
In Pennsylvania, which is the largest party for the Rust Belt, President Trump advanced 23 percentage points at the start of the count, but the rate at 10 p.m. dropped by 11.5 percentage points (about 610,000 votes) to 43.6% versus 55.1% from 75%.
In 2016, it was “ Shy Trump, ” but the key variable that influenced Rust’s belt in 2020 was vote-by-mail. Unlike the Southern Sunbelt, which opened pre-voting, including mail-in voting in three weeks, Rust Belt’s three-week ballots are opened first on Presidential Election Day and then mail-in ballots are counted longer. late. That’s why Candidate Biden is confident: “Even if it takes time, we will win in the end.”
Among these three states, 60% to 70% of Democratic-oriented voters are voters by mail, far more than Republicans. According to the New York Times and the US Elections Project, Pennsylvania has already received more than 35% (2,56,500) of the votes by mail and is counting, and about 600,000 have yet to arrive. When 785,000 of the votes were opened, 78.4% (616,000 votes) supported Biden, and the current gap in the counting process was sufficiently reversed.
When the President of the United States, Donald Trump, said that he would go to the Supreme Court of the United States at dawn on the 4th (local time), Pennsylvania accepts votes by mail before the 6th of November. It was a blatant attempt “, he confronted with” our legal team is waiting. “[AFP=연합뉴스]
As the situation looms, Trump is expected to face a lawsuit. The New York Times reported that Trump Camp’s legal delegation had already filed several invalid lawsuits against Pennsylvania’s continued filing of ballots by mail through Nov. 6, three days after the presidential election.
Michigan and Wisconsin only accept mail-in ballots received before the 3rd day, the day of the presidential election, but they have not counted 2.84 million votes and 1.3 million mail-in votes, respectively, and results are delayed. In Michigan, 928,000 mail-in votes were counted, showing Biden’s 66.0% and Trump’s 32.6%. Wisconsin has not yet reported the results of the vote-by-mail.
In the southern sun belt, the ‘Shy Trump’ effect was also evident. President Trump confirmed the victory by 380,000 votes (3.5 percentage points) over candidate Biden, 47.8%, with a 51.3% vote of 96% of Florida’s votes. Real Clearpolitics reversed the average difference of -0.9% points from the final average of the survey by 4.4%. It was a great victory compared to winning by 100,000 votes (1.2 percentage points) to Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.
In addition to Texas, which has already confirmed victory at 5.9% points, Georgia leads the way with 2.2% points (94% count rate) and 1.4% points in North Carolina (94% count rate ). However, in the case of Georgia, where 16 ballots were cast, the number of votes in Atlanta’s black area remains, and the New York Times and others predict that Biden is more likely to win.
If Biden reverses the game at the last minute and secures Georgia, it will be quite advantageous. Even if only Wisconsin (10), which has the lowest electoral group among the three Rust Belt states, can secure the majority of the electoral group, 270, and win. In this case, Trump faces the burden of winning all three Rust Belt states.
On the other hand, if Trump achieves a reversal in Nevada (six people), which is chasing Biden by 0.6 percentage point, he can meet the victory requirement by securing only one state in Pennsylvania, the largest of the three states in the world. Rust belt (20 members).
Reporters Jeong Hyo-sik and Seok Kyung-min [email protected]
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