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The reason we pay attention to the United States presidential election is that it will have a huge impact on our country right now. It seems clear that it is necessary to predict and prepare for what will happen depending on who is chosen. Director Hye-won Shin summarized the parts we should take, focusing on economic and foreign policies.
[기자]The reason why the 5 o’clock political vice president meeting becomes the 6 o’clock political vice president meeting and continues with special news until 8 o’clock, the reason we pay attention to the presidential election of others countries as much as the Korean presidential election, and it has a huge impact on our country right now. Depending on who is elected, the Korean government’s policy toward North Korea, foreign policy, and economic policy must reset the key. Today’s (fourth) Blue House presentation will focus on this part. First, in the field of diplomacy.
▶ (Display source: YouTube’PBS NewsHour ‘)
It was the last month. President Trump, who tested negative for Corona 19, flew to Florida, the battlefield, displaying his more passionate dance skills than usual, and launched the campaign. So I am healthy, showing myself with my body. Anyway, thanks to today’s campaign, so far, we have a win in Florida. In his speech that day, President Trump suddenly mentioned North Korean President Kim Jong-un.
[도널드 트럼프/미국 대통령 (현지시간 지난달 12일) : 김정은 국무위원장을 보세요. 북한과 전쟁까지 갈 수 있었지만 아무 일 없었습니다. 김정은 국무위원장을 비롯한 그들은 100% 영리한 사람들입니다. 그런데 대선에 나왔다는 어떤 사람은 100% 영리하지 않아요. 80%도 60%도 영리하지 않습니다.]President Kim Jong-un is smarter than anyone in the presidential election, candidate Biden. I mobilized President Kim to eliminate candidate Biden. During his four-year tenure, President Trump has cited diplomacy with North Korea as one of his biggest goals. North Korea is said to have launched an ICBM and turned the instant period of mentioning America’s “sea of fire” into a period of American dialogue.
[도널드 트럼프/미국 대통령 (현지시간 2017년 9월 20일) : 미국과 미국의 동맹국을 방어해야만 한다면, 미국은 북한을 완전히 파괴하는 것 외에 다른 선택지는 없을 것입니다. 로켓맨은 자신과 그 정권에 대해 자살 임무를 하고 있습니다.] [조선중앙TV (2017년 9월 22일) : 그는 분명 정치인이 아니라 불장난을 즐기는 불망나니, 깡패임이 틀림없다. 미국의 늙다리 미치광이를 반드시, 반드시 불로 다스릴 것이다.] [도널드 트럼프/미국 대통령 (2018년 6월 12일) : 기분이 정말 좋습니다. 우리는 아주 좋은 대화를 할 것이고 대단한 성공이 될 것이라 생각합니다.] [김정은/북한 국무위원장 (2018년 6월 12일) : 발목을 잡는 과거가 있고 그릇된 편견과 관행들이 때로는 우리 눈과 귀를 가리고 있었는데 우리는 모든 것을 이겨내고 이 자리까지 왔습니다.] [도널드 트럼프/미국 대통령 (2018년 6월 12일) : 옳은 말씀입니다.]As far as I can remember, Trump has said at least dozens of times: “If it was Obama’s time, maybe we would be at war.” At the beginning of his term, President Obama was in a position to meet with the North Korean leader unconditionally, but after repeated nuclear tests and armed provocations, he took a turn toward strengthening sanctions against North Korea and breaking off dialogue with strategic patience. Rather, President Trump has embarked on “criticizing Obama” through an active dialogue with North Korea. If he succeeds in re-election, there is the possibility of restarting the stalled negotiations with North Korea based on special relations with President Kim Jong-un. The so-called “top-down” negotiation continues through meetings between leaders. Of course, some people are skeptical. In the first term, to achieve diplomatic results with the goal of re-election, the US-North Korea summit was enthusiastically promoted, but there was no incentive to do so in the second term. In the course of the breakdown of the Hanoi talks last year, there is a prospect that it will not be easy to go to the third summit because they confirmed the Maginot line that may yield to each other.
▶ (Display source: YouTube ‘Joe Biden’)
On the other hand, when Biden is elected, Trump will erase Trump in the same way that Trump erased Obama. He said current policy toward North Korea has made no progress on the actual denuclearization of North Korea, and is in a position that it will not hold a show meeting. Furthermore, in the last television debate last month, he referred to President Kim Jong-un as ‘Thug’.
[조 바이든/미국 민주당 대통령 후보 (현지시간 지난달 22일) : 저 사람(트럼프 대통령)은 뭘 했죠? 북한 체제를 정당화해주고, 폭력배를 좋은 친구라고 칭하며, 그와 잘 지내고 있다고 이야기합니다. 북한은 훨씬 더 강한 미사일을 갖게 됐고, 그 어느 때보다도 더 쉽게 미국의 영토에 닿을 수 있게 되었어요.]Biden prefers the bottom-up method in which North Korea’s willingness to denuclearize is confirmed through labor-level negotiations, and then moves toward the US-North Korean summit. Basically, the prevailing observation is that the Obama administration’s North Korean policy and “strategic patience” will revive. However, since the Obama administration keeps pace with the Lee Myung-bak administration’s stance towards North Korea as it values the alliance between the ROK and the United States, this time the Moon Jae administration -in can give more weight to the position of the inter-Korean dialogue. It is an observation that, depending on our government’s role as mediator, the Clinton administration’s North Korean-American peace statement or peace agreement can be traced back to when it was first mentioned. Another variable is time. The US dialogue is unlikely to resume as soon as possible, as it may take at least six months to a year to organize a new diplomatic and security line.
[크리스틴 웰커/미국 NBC 앵커 (현지시간 지난달 22일) : 선결 조건 없이는 김정은 국무위원장을 만나지 않겠다고 했죠. 그 조건은 무엇인가요?] [조 바이든/미국 민주당 대통령 후보 (현지시간 지난달 22일) : 김 위원장이 북한의 핵 능력을 줄이는데 동의한다면, 만날 용의가 있습니다. 한반도를 비핵화 지대로 만들고자 한다면요.]The question of negotiating defense costs is also directly affected. President Trump has been calling for a dramatic increase in defense spending and rejected a 13 percent increase, which was tentatively agreed between the two countries. If reelection is successful, the pressure to move up may be even greater. The USFK reduction card may be removed again. On the other hand, candidate Biden is unlikely to demand an excessive raise. In a recent press article, I also used the expression ‘extortion’ directed at President Trump. “Instead, I will support Korea while strengthening the alliance.”
[도널드 트럼프/미국 대통령 (현지시간 지난해 12월 3일) : 우리는 한국을 보호하기 위해 엄청난 금액의 돈을 쓰고 있습니다. 한국이 더 많이 내는 것이 공정하다고 생각합니다. 올해 예산이 끝나기까지 한두 달밖에 남지 않았는데 한국은 ‘아니, 아니, 아니’라고 말합니다. 아시다시피 그들은 매우 뛰어난 사업가들입니다.] [조 바이든/미국 민주당 대통령 후보 (현지시간 8월 20일) : 제가 대통령이 되면 동맹국과 함께 서서, 독재자에게 동조하는 시대는 끝났다는 걸 분명히 할 것입니다. 보다 안전하고 평화롭고 번영하는 세상을 위해 공동의 목적으로 일하겠습니다.]Next is the economy. In fact, no matter who it is, the “top American priority” remains the same in the field of economics. President Trump MAGA’s catchphrase ‘Make America Great Again’ or Biden’s catchphrase ‘Buy American’ mean the same thing in the end. Furthermore, as both candidates are expected to continue with the same public scrutiny, the trade conflict between the United States and China is expected to continue.
However, if you look at detailed policies, there are differences in the changes in the trade environment between Korea and the United States. If Trump is re-elected, the protectionist stance will be further strengthened and the regime will shake even more, pushing for him to withdraw from the WTO, which links world trade. If Biden is elected, the protectionist stance could be softened and relations with the WTO could be improved. Also, unlike Trump’s management trade, which puts tariffs in the foreground, it can be said to be a bit impressive at first because he prefers the method of expanding the market through trade. However, since we seek a multilateral agreement with the alliance to put pressure on China, our country may find itself in a situation where we have to choose between the United States or China.
[도널드 트럼프/미국 대통령 (현지시간 지난 2일) : 조 바이든은 중국에서 수백만 달러의 돈을 챙기고, 여러분의 일자리를 그들에게 준 부패한 정치인입니다.] [조 바이든/미국 민주당 대통령 후보 (현지시간 지난달 30일) : 트럼프 행정부에선 중국으로의 농산물 수출이 오바마·바이든 두 번째 임기보다 40%나 감소했습니다.]The Korean government is also analyzing the elections while viewing the results of the count in real time. In particular, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has formed a TF for the US presidential elections since last August. It is that they will not step on the train that shamed so many expectations that Hillary Clinton would be elected during the 2016 presidential elections. The foreign policy scenarios have been designed in advance for the election of each candidate. In particular, Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-hwa is scheduled to visit the United States to meet with Secretary of State Pompeo four days later. So far, we have analyzed the impact of the US presidential elections in Korea. Let’s go to the seat and talk more with Director Bok.
Today’s Blue House presentation is organized like this. < 트럼프냐 바이든이냐…우리 외교·경제에 미칠 영향은 >
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