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The US presidential elections begin on the morning of the 3rd (local time, the night of the 3rd in Korea). Confusion over whether Republican Party President Donald Trump will be re-elected or former Democratic Party Vice President Joe Biden will replace the regime, amid reports that President Trump will enter a legal dispute over the issue of voting by mail in Pennsylvania, the biggest contender. This was announced. There are also some scenarios such as an early declaration of victory if President Trump comes forward to counting the votes, and there are concerns that the tradition of democracy in the United States, which has succumbed to the elections, will be broken.
The results of the US presidential elections can have an impact on the international situation. In particular, if President Trump is re-elected, he is very likely to extend the ‘US priority’ to four years. On the other hand, if candidate Biden takes power, he is very likely to criticize Trump’s existing foreign policy and take a multilateral route that strengthens cooperation with allies, which will affect relations with Korea.
Furthermore, criticism continues of the Democratic Party’s decision to nominate a candidate for the Seoul-Busan by-elections next year. President Moon Jae-in made the party constitution in 2015, when he was the party’s representative, saying, “ I will not give a candidate for reelection due to a gross misconduct by an elected public official, ” and it is argued that the President Moon should take a stand.
The following is the headline from the first page of the general morning newspaper for the 3rd.
Kyunghyang Shinmun “We will reveal the right of the prosecution to know the four undisclosed regulations
El Kookmin Ilbo “Controversy about the representativeness of 26% participation, seeing only extreme supporters”
Dong-A Ilbo “American Election Day, who will laugh?”
Seoul newspaper “Dice was thrown between seungbok and disapproval”
Segye Ilbo “Trump vs. Biden… the next owner of the White House “
Chosun Ilbo “Seungbok and Disapproval, American Democracy at the Crossroads”
JoongAng Ilbo “Trump Biden Pennsylvania Duel”
The Hankyoreh “Keep the fire of dissent and revolt … The day of the US presidential election was brilliant.”
Hankook Ilbo “Biden is ahead but … ‘Fog’ on his way to the White House”
Trump declared an early victory and feared violent protests
The Chosun Ilbo and the Hankyoreh reported in a front page article on the 3rd that Presidential Election Day was brilliant and President Trump declared an early victory, suggesting the possibility of dissent.
According to Chosun Ilbo, the Internet outlet Axios reported on the 1st that President Trump had planned to declare an early victory on the night of Election Day (3), when the vote-by-mail count had not ended. Pennsylvania, the biggest contender, said it would sue by vote-by-mail. The Chosun Ilbo analyzed that, “in fact, it implied the possibility of electoral dissent” and that “the possibility of an electoral dissension unprecedented in the history of the United States has increased.”
In current polls, Trump supporters are more likely to vote on Election Day, while Biden supporters prefer to vote by mail and before voting on the spot. If the ballots are counted first, Trump is very likely to beat Biden, but if he leads in several key competing states, such as Florida and Arizona, he will declare victory first, Axios said.
Chosun Ilbo said, “It will take time for the final election results to be released because 22 of the 50 American weeks are also considered valid for ballots that arrive after Election Day,” said Chosun Ilbo. “If Trump declares an early victory in this situation, there will be great confusion. It is inevitable,” he said.
Trump denied that the report was “false,” but referring to Pennsylvania’s vote-by-mail problem and saying, “I will go to court as soon as the election is over,” the seeds of conflict remain. According to Hankyoreh reports, President Trump did not give a definitive answer to the media on whether he would peacefully transfer his power in the event of defeat in the presidential election.
The Chosun Ilbo captured police on day 1 (local time) arresting a person who was holding an anti-Trump rally in New York and the appearance of covering the window of a department store on Fifth Avenue in New York with plywood in preparation for a riot.
According to a recent Reuters and Ipsos poll, 22% of Biden supporters and 16% of Trump Ji-ah said: “If we lose our side, we will go to protests or even violence.” The Hankyoreh said: “This presidential election takes place amid the fierce division of American society, so that only 3% of the people have not decided who to shoot.” There is also concern that the country will reach the level of a civil war ”.
There is also an aspect that President Trump is adding to this anxiety. According to Hankyoreh’s report, Trump encourages supporters instead of calming them. The newspaper noted that Trump supporters were “great” in describing the Texas Democratic campaign siege as “protection.”
Results of the US presidential elections, will the situation change on the Korean peninsula?
The Dong-A Ilbo analyzed how the re-election of President Trump and the election of former Vice President Biden affect the world order, respectively. The Dong-A Ilbo said: “If President Trump is re-elected, the wave of ‘American Priority’ that he has promoted will be greater. The second Trump administration puts the interests of the United States before multilateral diplomacy through cooperation with organizations. and international alliances It is very likely that the neoclassicalism of ‘My Way’ will continue.
On the other hand, “Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has criticized the Trump-style foreign move for weakening the influence of the United States on the international stage and has professed to strengthen cooperation with allies and restore multilateralism.”
The Kyunghyang Shinmun ordered the government to prepare countermeasures according to the next US president in the editorial “Uncertainty US presidential election, the government must prepare for all possibilities”, but this newspaper’s analysis was somewhat different from Dong-A Ilbo.
The Kyunghyang Shinmun said: “In the case of North Korea-US relations, even if Trump is successful in re-election, there is no guarantee that the top-down stance of the first term in power will continue.” “Analyzed.
“Regardless of who is elected, the conflict between the United States and China is very likely to continue to worsen, so the position of South Korea caught between them is likely to become difficult.” “There are many difficulties to be resolved between Korea and the United States, such as negotiating defense contributions and early conversion of wartime control. Said. He then ordered: “We must also prepare for the economic turmoil arising from the prolonged protest against the presidential elections.”
On the other hand, it is a point to keep an eye on whether predictions from US public opinion polls that did not predict Trump’s election four years ago will come through this time. The Dong-A Ilbo said in an article titled “A poll that didn’t have ‘Why Trump’ four years ago, is this correct? ” It has decreased significantly, so I hope it is ‘correct this time’. ”
However, he pointed out that it is a new variable that the number of people who participated in the pre-voting for Corona 19 is close to 100 million. In addition, the newspaper said: “The higher the income elites aware of public opinion, they do not show their support for Trump on the surface, but there is analysis that there are many cases of expressing their willingness to support the president when they can deceive your identity”. Saying.
‘Moon Jae-in Party Heon’ reveals Moon Jae-in’s position
The Democratic Party announced on the 2nd that around 86% of party members voted for the candidates for the Seoul and Busan mayoral by-elections on the 2nd. The Democratic Party said it was “overwhelming approval”, but turnout was only 26%, which generated controversy. According to the Party Constitution and Party Rules, more than a third (33%) of the total number of voters voted for all party members to vote, and the majority voted in favor, but voter turnout was lower . The Democratic Party is in a position that “it is not just the will of the party members, not the resolution process.”
Chosun Ilbo criticized in the cover story “Wen’s Silence” that “President Moon, who made this constitutional clause of the party as the representative of the Democratic Party in 2015, did not reveal any position.” A Blue House official responded: “There is no reason for the Blue House to comment on the nomination as a matter for the Party to decide.”
The newspaper said in an editorial: “President Moon is silent as he watches the Democratic Party overturn the promise of political reform he made to the people,” he said. Critical. In response to the Blue House’s response, he rebutted that “it is common sense that the Democratic Party cannot do this without the consent and support of President Moon.”
The Hankyoreh also said in an editorial: “The appearance of the Democratic Party to change the rules for political innovation in five years for reasons of political engineering is unacceptable.” Avoidance, ”he noted.
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