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President Donald Trump speaks during an election campaign at Miami-Oparoka Airport on the second day (local time) a day before the US presidential election. [로이터=연합뉴스]
The day of the decision to elect the next president of the United States has arrived. While most polls and analysts predict the victory of Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden, US President Donald Trump’s pursuit of the race is not unusual. Of the 538 electoral votes, the ‘magic number’ required for victory is 270 votes. It is noted that the game is likely to fly in Pennsylvania in the northern Rustbelt and Florida in the southern Sunbelt.
Magic number 270 … the last minute
The largest number of 29 electoral members from 6 competing states
Trump needs to pass the sunbelt to lead the way
Biden, Pennsylvania is the key
Victory power when all Rust belts are secured
The Washington family culminates in six races. They are Pennsylvania in northern Rustbelt (20 voters), Wisconsin (10), Michigan (16) and Florida in southern Sunbelt (29), Arizona (11) and North Carolina (15). According to the electoral analysis outlet, Real Clear Politics (RCP), Biden’s approval rating was 51.1% as of the first (local time), which was 7.2 percentage points ahead of President Trump, which is 43.9%.
There is almost no gap in the approval ratings of the three solar belts.
When the average of the six states was averaged on Day 2, the gap between Biden’s approval rating and President Trump narrowed to 3.2 percentage points. In particular, the difference does not make sense in North Carolina (0.3 percentage points), Arizona (1.2 percentage points) and Florida (1.4 percentage points).
Based on Democratic and Republican votes in the 2016 presidential election, a Florida + α victory for President Trump and a Pennsylvania victory for Biden is essential. Excluding the six states from the race, assuming President Trump wins again in the region that won the last presidential election, 205 voters are insured. To fill the remaining 65 players, you must earn at least one Rust belt in addition to three solar belts (55).
Pre-Voting Status for the US Presidential Election Chart = Reporter Kim Kyung-jin [email protected]
This means that if the election team does not get the most from Florida (29), it will be difficult to win. This is because you can only make up for it if you win the other two or three places. In Rust Belt, defeat can turn dark before the game is decided.
In the 2016 presidential election, then-Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won 232 voters in the region. If only 46 voters from three Rustbelts (16 in Michigan, 10 in Wisconsin and 20 in Pennsylvania) were returned by President Trump, 278 would be insured, ensuring Biden’s victory. Even if they lose all three solar belts, candidate Biden wins.
However, if 20 people are taken in Pennsylvania (258 people are insured), the calculation is complicated. At least 12 players must be insured, and among the sun belts, Florida (29) or North Carolina (15) must win. Winning only Arizona (11) is useless.
The analysis of public opinion polls is similar. On the 2nd, the political website ‘270towin’ predicted that Biden, including 46 voters in three Rustbelts, would secure 290 voters. Although none of the three southern solar belts were brought. However, only 270 people lost in Pennsylvania. It is a dangerous number to guarantee victory.
Trump wins 10 out of 100 scenarios
More cases are needed for Trump to fill 270. 270 Twowin predicted 163 constituencies that President Trump could certainly bring in. Here, it’s now ranked Bing Bing, but even if Georgia (16) wins, where the GOP has traditionally been strong, and brings Florida (29) and North Carolina (15) from the Sunbelt, it has 223 seats. Plus, 269 votes even if all three Rust Belts were won. Iowa (6 people), a local public opinion poll that says there is hidden support here, must be surpassed to just over 270, the magic number. You must not miss anyone, but it is a fatal blow to take 29 people in Florida, the highest number.
2020 U.S. Presidential Elections by the Numbers
As a result of running 40,000 simulations, an opinion polling specialist ‘Five 30 Eight’ also analyzed 89 out of 100 scenarios for Biden to win, 10 scenarios for President Trump to win, and 1 scenario to ensure an equal number. .
The essential premise for the 10 scenarios that President Trump won was 3 + solar belts over Pennsylvania. Even if Wisconsin wins among the Rustbelts, he loses in Pennsylvania, and President Trump is defeated.
Cook Political Report, a bipartisan election analysis firm, saw President Trump’s win rate lowest. President Trump predicted that only 125 electoral bodies could be secured, and he could not win even if he brought all 123 electoral bodies from the state of Park Bing-in, including Florida. In addition to this, the predominant state of Biden must take at least 22 more to fill 270, but to do so, it is also essential to bring Pennsylvania (20).
In particular, Cook’s Political Report drew attention by classifying the Republican garden of Texas as a racial state. In Texas, Republican presidential candidates have never been defeated since 1976. The number of voters in Texas is 38. It is also predicted that victory itself will be difficult for President Trump if he loses here.
Reporter Baek Hee-yeon [email protected]
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