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Before the presidential elections on the 3rd (local time), the unknown face of the United States, divided into Republicans and Democrats, is fully revealed. This is America, once called a textbook on democracy. However, with the confusion generated by the electoral system of each state and the possibility of dissent on the part of the incumbent president, a new uproar is foreshadowed after the presidential election. This year’s US presidential election, said to be the worst election in history, is a look at five observation points.
① Trump, will you file a lawsuit for the presidential election?
US President Donald Trump said on day 1: “We will begin consultations with attorneys on election night,” suggesting the possibility of a legal dispute over the results of the count of some states of the race. President Trump has raised controversy during the presidential race, saying: “I will be aware of the results of the presidential election”, avoiding an immediate response to the succession of the results or the transfer of the peaceful regime. Additionally, in this year’s presidential election, some states, such as Pennsylvania, changed the rules to validate vote-by-mail because of Corona 19, which gave President Trump an object of dissent. It is fortunate that on that day, President Trump denied reports that he would declare victory before securing a majority of the electoral body.
“Smart Democrats believe that President Trump will get at least 280 voters on election night,” said Jason Miller, Trump’s senior election field adviser, “but they are trying to get the results back after Election Day.” American historians predict the worst chaos since the 1876 elections. Rutherford Hayes, who was a Republican candidate at the time, was found to have been defeated on Election Day, but questions were raised about the results of the count from three states, including Florida. , and the inability to determine the chosen candidate lasted for several months. In the end, Hayes was elected by a decision of a special committee made by parliament, and he became president by one vote.
② Defeated by Biden Florida?
The United States has long maintained a political landscape with the Republican Party dominating the central field and the Democratic Party controlling the cities of the east and west. The northern industrial zone was also a garden for the Democratic Party. However, in the 2016 presidential election, President Trump swept away Rustbelt and became the protagonist. This year, Democrats are targeting the Republican southern garden. Texas, which has been won by Republicans since the 1980 presidential election, has been classified as a racial state this year. Georgia, expected to make it to the stadium, has not won the Democratic Party since 1996, and Arizona has not won the Democratic Party since 2000. Also, while Florida is a typical swing state, it beat Trump four years ago.
If Florida, Georgia and Arizona raise their hands in this election, Democratic candidate Joe Biden is expected to lose his victory. Of these, in Florida, the winner is expected to be decided as soon as election night. On the other hand, President Trump is targeting the states of Minnesota and Nevada, which are the former gardens of the Democratic Party. The interesting point of this presidential election is whether there will be a rift in the political landscape of the United States, which was thought to have already been fixed.
③ Is the Pennsylvania survey correct?
If President Trump saves the South Lawn, the key to victory or defeat will go to Rustbelt. In Michigan and Wisconsin, where counts are expected to be tallied early, Biden is relatively ahead of the polls. In this case, the state of Pennsylvania, which has 20 voters, is expected to serve as a delivery ship. In polls released by the Washington Post (WP) and ABC released on the 1st, Biden was 51%, ahead of President Trump (44%) by 7 percentage points. If this prediction is correct, the winner can be determined early, regardless of the outcome of the vote-by-mail that arrives after the voting date. But even four years ago, President Trump trailed candidate Hillary Clinton by about 2 percentage points until the last minute, but he ultimately won. President Trump is filing a lawsuit against Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania Attorney General Josh Sherpiro, a member of the Democratic Party, said on Twitter that “if President Trump’s lawyers challenge themselves, they will win court again.” Pennsylvania’s vote-by-mail volume has increased tenfold compared to four years ago.
④ Senate and House of Representatives of the Democratic Party
During the 2016 elections, the Republican Party won the presidential elections, as well as the Senate and House elections, and the “Red Wave” struck. However, through the 2018 midterm elections, the Democratic Party recaptured the House of Representatives, and this time it is also targeting the Senate. On the 3rd, 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be voted on. Republicans have 23 seats and Democrats have 12 seats, which is disadvantageous for Republicans. Currently 9 seats compete, of which 7 are Republicans. If the Democratic Party wins the presidential election after bringing in 4 seats, it can become a majority party by combining the casting boat of the vice president, who is also the president of the Senate.
In the past two years, there have been constant impeachment attempts against President Trump, disputes over economic stimulus bills and controversies over the appointment of the Supreme Court justice. Whether one party monopolizes or divides parliamentary power is as important as gaining power in American politics. Even if President Trump wins, resigning from the Senate and House of Representatives could lead to early failure.
⑤ Overthrow with Trump’s face-to-face vote?
By day 1, 93.3 million American voters finished voting by mail and before voting. The total number of voters four years ago was 139 million. Experts predict that the total number of votes this year could reach 150 million to 160 million. Around 60 million people are expected to go to the polls on Election Day. In various opinion polls, supporters of the Democratic Party prefer to vote by mail, and supporters of the Republican Party prefer to vote on the spot. So if the voting fever spikes in electoral status on Election Day, it will be a good thing for President Trump.
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