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Second report from the Hyundai Economic Research Institute
When Biden is elected, Korean exports are likely to grow 0.6-2.2% annually.
US Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden speaks at the Florida Fairgrounds on the 29th (local time). Florida / AP Yonhap News
If Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden is elected in the US presidential election, pressure is expected to increase to increase Korea’s economic growth rate. In the report ‘The Impact of the Results of the US Presidential Elections on the Korean Economy’ released on the 2nd, the Hyundai Economic Research Institute reported that the rate of increase of Korea’s total exports following the rebound of the US economy when Biden was elected, assuming the current composition of the Trump administration and Congress as the basic scenario.Upward pressure was estimated at an annual average of 0.6-2.2 percentage points, and the pressure to increase the rate of economic growth was estimated. by 0.1 to 0.4 percentage points. The researcher said: “ Based on the two candidates’ commitments to economic policies such as taxes, fiscal spending, foreign policy, trade, and infrastructure, when Biden was elected, the US economy was stronger than the reelection of President Trump, creating a more favorable environment for the Korean economy. I was hoping it was ”.
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On the other hand, if Trump is reelected and the Republican Party holds the majority in the United States Congress, Korea’s gross export growth rate falls by 0.4 percentage points per year on average and the economic growth rate falls by 0.1 percentage point per year compared to the baseline scenario (currently comprised of the Trump administration and Congress). Pressure was expected to build. This analysis is based on the four scenarios from the US economic outlook (Scenario 1 = Biden by President Biden and parliamentary split. Scenario 2 = Bilateral split by President Trump and Parliament (Basic) according to prediction from the outcome of the US Presidential Elections and Congressional Elections held jointly by Moody’s, an international credit rating agency Scenario 3 = President Biden, Senate and House Democrats, Scenario 4 = President Trump, Senate, Republican of the House) and the two candidates, taking into account the economic relevance of Korea and the United States, the impact on Korea’s economic growth rate and exports It is an estimate of the impact. The researcher said: “The domino effect of the Korean economy after the economic rebound in the United States occurs through the path of export growth and the recovery of the world economy.” It will increase. “In addition, the stable recovery of the US economy, a major world economy, contributes to a rebound in the world economy, raising expectations for a recovery in the Korean economy, which is heavily affected by changes in business in The researcher estimated that if the US economic growth rate increases by 1 percentage point, it will act as an upward pressure of 2.1 percentage points on the growth rate of Korean exports and 0.4 points percentage over the rate of economic growth through this undulating trajectory. The researcher predicted that there are limited investment opportunities in the traditional energy and heavy industry sectors when President Trump is reelected, while the possibility of expanding entry to Korean-related companies such as pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, electric vehicles and renewable energy exist when Biden is chosen. gone. Furthermore, it is expected that if Biden is elected, compared to the reelection of President Trump, the Korean economy, which is heavily dependent on exports, will benefit more from the increase in trade volume due to the recovery of the existing world trade order. . By Jo Gye-wan, Staff Reporter
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