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Global economic instability due to signs of complications
Open Campaign of the Nevada-Michigan War Fronts On the 29th (local time), supporters of President Donald Trump gathered at the Reno airport in western Nevada, the fierce battlefield of the US presidential election. On the 3rd of the following month, raising their arms and cheering (pictured on the left). On the same day, in Westland, Michigan, a northern racial state, supporters of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden released a line with the names of Biden and Vice President Camela Harris. Reno Westland = AP Newsis
As the US presidential election approaches three days early, voices of concern about delays in the count and discontent over the results are mounting. In past US presidential elections, the winner is usually decided on election night or at dawn the next day, but this year it is no less likely to be delayed. This is due to the rapid increase in the number of pre-ballots, such as voting by mail. In particular, key competitors, such as Pennsylvania, recognize ballots that arrive after the presidential election as valid votes, and victory or defeat may change depending on the counting process. As a result, if a situation arises that does not agree with the results of the count, the entire United States will be confused and considerable consequences are expected for the international community and the global economy.
○ Vote-by-mail validity date varies by state
According to the US Election Project, a private election analysis group in the United States, 82 million voters completed pre-voting on the 30th (local time), of which 53 million voted by mail. At the time of the 2016 presidential election, there were a total of 47 million pre-votes and 33 million by mail. According to an analysis, the consolidation of supporters of each party was notable due to the aftermath of the new coronavirus infection (Corona 19) and an overheated electoral campaign, which increased the fever prior to the vote.
Of the 50 US states, 28 only count ballots that arrive on or before Election Day. On the other hand, the remaining 22 states and the capital, Washington, will accept postmarks with postmarks before November 3, even if they arrive after 3 days at the box office.
Texas, the second largest of the 50 states after California (55 voters), admits that even the newspapers arrived on the 4th, the day after the election. Five states, including Pennsylvania (20 people), where President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden are taking their lives and deaths, are recognized as valid votes until their arrival on the 6th, North Carolina (15) on the 12th. and Ohio (18) on 13. do. For this reason, even if President Trump gets more votes in the field vote on Presidential Election Day, there is a chance that victory or defeat will change as the pre-voting results are reflected. This is because supporters of the Democratic Party, including minorities, participate in the pre-vote. President Trump, who has always raised suspicions about voting by mail, is very likely to disapprove of whether the result is reversed by a slight margin of vote or by early voting in the race. Along the same lines, if President Trump shows an advantage on the ballot, he can declare electoral victory early and avoid additional mail-in votes from each state through lawsuits. Several lawsuits about the method of counting and counting ballots by mail are already pending in several race states, including Minnesota. Similar trials followed, as in the 2000 presidential election, which could lead to a situation in which the Supreme Court actually determines the presidential winner. Democratic candidate Al Gore admitted defeat after the Supreme Court granted Republican candidate George W. Bush’s hand after the Supreme Court refused to conduct a recount in Florida, a key racial state. It is discussed that President Trump hastily nominated a new Supreme Court Justice, tough conservative Amy Barrett, eight days after the death of liberal Supreme Justice Ruth Ginsberg, to make the Supreme Court a firm conservative lead in preparation for possible electoral disputes.
○ The House of Representatives can elect the president
The electoral body representing all 50 states is formal, but the final vote on the winners by state on December 14 must be taken by Congress for approval by January 6. However, if a candidate with a majority of 270 or more seats on the electoral body cannot be selected due to objections and judgments, the House of Representatives will elect the President and the Senate will elect the President prior to the inauguration ceremony on January 20 of next year in accordance with the Constitution.
For now, it is to the advantage of the Republican Party for Parliament to decide the president and vice president. The president needs the support of a majority (26) of the 50 representatives of the state House of Representatives, and the vice president needs a majority (51) of the Senate. Currently, the Republican Party is the Senate Majority, the Democratic Party is the House Majority, but the State House Majority Party has 26 Republicans from 50 states and 22 Democrats (two states equal the number of seats) . However, it is difficult to predict which party will prevail if the president and vice president are elected by the new parliament, which will launch on January 3, based on the results of the parliamentary elections held on the same day as the presidential elections.
○ Concerns about social unrest and the global economic impact in the US.
If the next president’s decision is delayed, extreme social unrest is expected across the United States. Some of the protesters who clashed or were not satisfied with the election results may rebel against supporters of others who claim to have won the election. According to Reuters, 22% and 16% of Biden and Trump supporters, respectively, said: “If the candidate is defeated, he will commit street protests or acts of violence.”
USA Today reported that some voters stocked emergency supplies, such as canned food and toilet paper, and removed posters and license plates that could be seen as support for certain political parties out of fear of post-election violence. The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the police in major cities also mobilized all available manpower to respond in an emergency.
Amid mounting concerns about a global economic downturn due to the recent reproliferation of Corona 19 and the resulting re-lockdown, the possibility arises that the confusion of the United States, a superpower, adversely affects the world economy. Credit rating agency Fitch recently feared that “confusion in the results of the presidential elections will negatively affect the national credit rating of the United States.”
Wall Street is also more concerned about prolonged turmoil. Eight US business organizations, including the US Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable, expressed concern that the winners of the recent presidential election may not be quickly confirmed, and called for a “peaceful and fair election.” James Dyman, CEO of JPMorgan, recently sent an email to employees and customers to inform them that they should be prepared for the uncertainty caused by dissatisfaction with the results of the presidential election. Nuriel Rubini, a professor at New York University, also predicted on the 27th that “if the presidential dispute continues until early next year, the price of US shares could fall 10% from now.”
New York = Yoo Jae-dong Correspondent [email protected] Go to reporter’s page>
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